The Baltimore Ravens got so close to the Super Bowl and will look to improve themselves this offseason to make another run in 2020. But before we get to free agency and the draft, the Ravens will need to handle their own pending free agents.
We continue our look at Baltimore’s pending free agents with a preview of wide receiver Seth Roberts. Make sure to check out our other Ravens free-agent previews for 2020 for our in-depth look at each pending free agent.
Seth Roberts – 2019 review:
Roberts played in all 16 regular-season games in 2019, although he didn’t start any of them. Roberts played the second-most snaps in 2019 among Baltimore’s wide receivers with Willie Snead getting the most snaps. In spite of the playing time, you’d be hard-pressed to claim he was a dominant part of the Ravens’ offense.
Roberts converted his 35 targets into 21 receptions for 271 yards, with two touchdowns. It was Roberts’ least-productive season in both receptions and receiving yards in any season where he played at least one game. Stoll, Roberts was a reliable chain mover when he caught the ball, with 18 of his 21 receptions earning the Ravens a first down. But his target-per-snap rate of 7.3% ranked 107th among all wide receivers last season.
Roberts saw a season-high five targets in Week 4 against the Cleveland Browns. This game also saw him post a season-high four receptions. Roberts surpassed 39 receiving yards in a game just once, finishing with 66 against the New York Jets in Week 15. Roberts had one reception or less in eight of his 16 games — 105 wide receivers had more receptions than Roberts in 2019, while 98 had more receiving yards.
If we are to take some positives from the season, then we can point to the fact that Roberts did not grass any of his 35 targets. Both Pro Football Reference and PlayerProfiler do not credit him with a single drop all season. But from a pure production standpoint, there isn’t a lot to get excited about.
Seth Roberts – Potential:
When speaking about a player’s potential, we usually want some sign of what they can hope to become in the next few seasons. But Seth Roberts will be 29 during the 2020 season and has been in the NFL for six seasons, meaning we pretty much know what type of player he is at this stage and can be confident about what type of player he’ll be moving forward.
Roberts has never had more than 45 receptions or 494 yards in a single season. After scoring five touchdowns in each of his first two seasons, he has scored a total of five combined in his last three. One would assume that he is an above-average blocker at his position considering how much Baltimore asks their wide receivers to block downfield in the run game, and his playing significant snaps on the league’s most run-heavy offense would support this assumption.
This is a skill that Roberts should be proud of, to be sure. But it’s not a fact that is going to help him put up massive receiving numbers.
Seth Roberts – Free agency value:
It’s safe to say that Roberts will not be re-setting the wide receiver market when it comes to contract value this offseason.
Roberts may have his sights set on a similar contract to that awarded to Cole Beasley by the Buffalo Bills last season. Beasley signed a five-year, $29 million deal at age 31. However, while not exactly a Hall of Fame level compiler, Beasley’s production prior to his signing this deal dwarves that of Roberts. To give a better comparison, Jermaine Kearse signed a one-year deal with the Detroit Lions for $1.34 million last year after coming off a more productive 2018 than Roberts is this offseason.
As a veteran option with the willingness to block, Roberts still holds some value in spite of his very limited production, but only for teams that need a downfield blocker in their system. That really caps what any team is going to be willing to pay him when factoring in his age, recent production and potential to improve. The reality is Roberts may be forced to accept another one-year “prove-it” deal like the one-year, $2 million contract he signed to join the Ravens last offseason. But with potentially even less interest in his services this offseason, $2 million might be a bit of a stretch.
Chance to re-sign:
From a pure counting stats viewpoint, Roberts didn’t do too much to wow the Ravens coaching staff last season. This apparent lack of production will not exactly help him stand out as a free agent. If he is keen to stay with the team and accept a similar deal to last season, then he could very well return to Baltimore for 2020. But the Ravens need to improve the talent at wide receiver, a fact made more evident by the teams’ struggles against the Tennessee Titans in the AFC Divisional round loss.
Miles Boykin is expected to take a step forward in 2020, and on paper, he profiles to play the role that Roberts had been fulfilling in 2019. This would lead to a decrease in opportunities for Roberts, and he wasn’t exactly getting a load to begin with.
Roberts may find the open market is not exactly full of overwhelming contract offers, and this allied to his familiarity with the Ravens may lead to his returning at a reasonable price. This might suit both parties, and as such, I put Roberts chances of being a Raven in 2020 at roughly 50%.
