After a fantastic 2019 season that saw the Baltimore Ravens go 14-2 and claim the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs, they’ll head into the offseason on less than stellar terms. The team that many pegged as the best in the NFL at one point will try to retain as much of their roster as possible to make another run at a Super Bowl.
However, the Ravens have 21 pending free agents this offseason and it seems unlikely they’ll be able to re-sign them all. At the very top of the list is outside linebacker Matthew Judon, who is likely going to earn a huge contract this offseason. So what better person to choose next on our free-agent preview than the guy Baltimore will try the hardest to ink to a long-term deal.
Also, check out our other Ravens free-agent previews for 2020.
Matthew Judon – 2019 review:
2019 was a career year for Judon, who started all 16 games for the first time. He had 9.5 sacks, 14 tackles-for-loss and forced four fumbles. Even when not getting the sack, he still made sure the quarterbacks knew he was around. Judon dished out 33 quarterback hits, the fourth-most of any player in the NFL.
Judon played 793 defensive snaps in 2019, 80.9% of the Ravens total defensive plays and more than any other linebacker on the roster. He was also named to his first Pro Bowl. All of this came at a perfect time for Judon as he will be an unrestricted free agent when the new league year begins.
Review / Potential / Value / Chances to re-sign
Matthew Judon – Potential:
2019 seemed to be the season that Judon finally lived up to his promise. His first three seasons with the team were spent with him chipping in with sacks and tackles for loss behind Terrell Suggs. But finally entrusted with being the guy for the Ravens last season, he seemed to thrive in his all-around role.
Judon will be 28 years old by the time the 2020 season comes around and has remained injury-free during his career. That puts him right at the start of his prime and likely gives him at least four really good years.
With no help on the other side, opposing teams were able to focus on Judon more specifically in order to shut him down, likely somewhat muting his numbers. As we saw with Za’Darius Smith with the Green Bay Packers, there’s undoubtedly a jump in performance with another capable pass rusher opposite him. Whether that equals the five additional sacks Smith got in 2019 with the Packers over 2018 with the Ravens remains to be seen, but it’s likely enough to get Judon into double digits for the first time in his career.
Review / Potential / Value / Chances to re-sign
Matthew Judon – Free agency value:
Some teams may be wary of the fact that it took until the final year of his contract to put it all together. But as we’ve seen too often in the NFL, there are plenty of teams willing to bet on potential, especially when shown some flashes of what could be.
I think the most obvious comparison is to Smith’s contract last season with Green Bay. Smith got a four-year, $66 million deal from the Packers, including $20 million guaranteed, according to Over The Cap.
When comparing Smith and Judon’s fourth years, Judon has the edge in tackles, sacks, quarterback hits, forced fumbles and tackles-for-loss. Given Smith’s ascension into one of the best pass rushers in the league, there are undoubtedly some teams that are going to bet Judon has a similar jump up in his fifth year. With the salary cap expected to grow quite a lot once again, it’s difficult seeing Judon not topping Smith’s deal this offseason.
A four-year, $68 million deal with $22 million guaranteed seems to be about right given Judon’s production, age and the importance the league puts on the position in today’s pass-happy game.
Review / Potential / Value / Chances to re-sign
Chance to re-sign:
I would be surprised to see Judon in a Ravens uniform in 2020, I have to admit. The type of deal that he is likely to want is likely to be beyond what the team is comfortable paying. After all, they chose to let Smith walk last season and he was a year younger than Judon is.
Ravens coach John Harbaugh has stated that he would like Judon to stay but acknowledges that it’s going to be difficult to achieve. Baltimore’s strategy in the past has been to allow free agents to go and find out their value before returning to the team and offering them the chance to match. I am sure Judon will be encouraged to do the same, but this might just end up as a dignified way to say goodbye. I do not believe that the Ravens will enter a bidding war for anyone, even a player they have watched the draft and develop.
The caveat here is the franchise tag, which Baltimore has been hesitant to use in the past. According to Over The Cap, the franchise tag for linebackers is expected to be $16.27 million, which while expensive, gives the Ravens a little more leverage and would cheaper than the deal Judon is likely going to get. With plenty of cap space expected for 2020, Baltimore has the capability to pull this off and keep Judon for at least next season.
If the Ravens don’t use the franchise tag on Judon, Baltimore’s history points to the end of his tenure with the team. Barring the tag being used, I put his odds at re-signing with the Ravens at about 20%.
