The 2019 season is over for the Baltimore Ravens. Now they’ll look forward to the offseason and especially free agency in order to gear up for the 2020 season.
While the Ravens will surely be interested in quite a few free agents that’ll hit the market, their biggest goal will be to retain some of their own key players. With that in mind, we’re going to do a deep dive on what Baltimore’s pending free agents are looking at this offseason.
We start things off with cornerback Jimmy Smith.
Jimmy Smith – 2019 review:
Smith carried one of the highest-paid players on Baltimore’s roster and was expected to return to full strength more than a year removed from a torn Achilles. However, Smith missed six games after suffering a knee sprain on the very first drive in Week 1. He was also held out of Week 17 along with several other starters since the Ravens had already secured the No. 1 seed.
Smith finished the season with one interception for seven yards, six passes defended, one sack and 30 combined tackles in nine games. He played just 425 total defensive snaps, losing time not only to injury but to Baltimore’s deep secondary that added Marcus Peters prior to Week 7.
Review / Potential / Value / Chances to re-sign
Jimmy Smith – Potential:
This is going to be a big discussion among front offices. When fully healthy and on the field, Smith has shown flashes of greatness. But he’ll be 32 years old in 2020 and he’s missed a bunch of time due to injuries and suspensions. The fact Smith has played a full 16-game season just twice in his nine-year career, last coming in 2015, is going to hurt him in free agency.
I think Smith can still be a competent starter in this league, even a potential top cornerback. But it’s all predicated on him staying on the field. Even if he never misses another game in the remainder of his career, the other question is just how long does Smith have before his skillset diminishes and he becomes a depth player?
At this point in his career, Smith is likely just a stop-gap solution at cornerback. Any team looking to sign him likely has a young cornerback they’re developing into the starting role and will need Smith to help out before being pushed down the depth chart.
Review / Potential / Value / Chances to re-sign
Jimmy Smith – Free agency value:
To figure out Smith’s free agency value, we have to look at older cornerbacks who signed deals recently. That points to Robert Alford and Richard Sherman being the best comparisons here.
Alford signed a three-year deal with Arizona for $22.5 million, according to Over The Cap, while Sherman got $27.15 million over three years from the 49ers. That puts Alford at $7.5 million APY but with $8.95 million guaranteed. Sherman got less guaranteed money at only $3 million but a higher APY at $9.05 million.
While the salary cap is expected to increase, which should make this offseason’s contracts increase in response, both Alford and Sherman have remained healthy throughout their careers. Given Smith’s injury and suspension history matched with his inconsistent play, I wouldn’t expect him to go too far above either deal. That $7.5 million APY and $3 million guaranteed are likely to be about where Smith falls this offseason.
A three-year, incentive-laden deal for $23 million seems appropriate in my eyes. If Smith balks at the offers, it wouldn’t shock me to see him take a one-year deal at closer to $9 million in order to prove he can remain healthy and be a starter before getting another crack at free agency.
Review / Potential / Value / Chances to re-sign
Chance to re-sign:
While the free-agent landscape can completely change overnight, there are currently quite a few notable cornerbacks set to hit the market this offseason. That’s going to make it tougher for Smith to find a good contract, which actually works in Baltimore’s favor if they want to retain him.
The Ravens have a pretty stocked secondary but with Brandon Carr potentially a salary cap casualty and Tavon Young’s injury history, Baltimore could always use more capable depth.
The Ravens have shown they won’t overpay for a player, even a beloved one like Terrell Suggs last offseason. If another team thinks Smith can be a starter and stay healthy, it’ll likely be a better role and more money than what Baltimore will offer. So the key for Smith is just how much he wants to finish his career with only one team.
I’d give it a 40% chance Smith re-signs with the Ravens this offseason.
