Free agency starts in a little less than a month, and the Ravens are looking at all of their free agents to decide who they should bring back and who should go. Because of that, so are we.
Today, we’re going to look at wide receiver John Brown.
Brown came to Baltimore on a one-year “prove-it” deal. There had been questions about Brown’s ability to stay healthy and produce consistently prior to signing with the Ravens.
While he might not have put up the biggest numbers in 2018, the 28-year-old still led the team in receiving yards and touchdowns. The Ravens needed a deep threat, and Brown proved that he can be that. He’s going to get paid in 2019, whether in Baltimore or somewhere else.
Let’s take a deeper look at Brown’s 2018 season, what his potential is and what he’s likely to earn this offseason.
2018 review:
Brown played in every game for the Ravens, something he had only done once in his previous four seasons. He had a solid season, catching 42 of his 97 targets for 715 yards and five touchdowns. Brown showed his trademark speed but also was a better route runner than many had given him credit for.
Brown played 757 (63.6 percent) of all snaps. That was the seventh-most of all Ravens offensive players and the third-most of all Ravens receivers.
While Brown put up big numbers through the first four games of the season — catching 15 passes for 338 yards and three touchdowns — he wasn’t as big a part of the offense down the stretch as the rest of the offense got more conservative. Obviously, he wasn’t going to keep those numbers going over a full season, especially as Lamar Jackson started and the offense became more run-heavy. But it was a little disappointing to see him catch only 27 passes for 377 yards and two touchdowns over the other 12 games considering his quick start.
Perhaps Brown’s biggest issue was his drops. According to Pro Football Focus, Brown dropped seven passes on the season, which is a career high for him.
Potential:
Even though Brown didn’t put up the biggest numbers in 2018, he still proved that he could be a high-quality deep threat with a career-best 17 yards per catch. He even parlayed his deep speed into underneath receptions, which he turned into larger chunks of yardage and touchdowns thanks to above-average elusiveness.
Brown will turn 29 in April, which puts him on the back side of his career — especially considering a lengthy injury history. But he showed he’s still a starting-quality wide receiver in the NFL in the first half of the season with the Ravens.
The question is just how effective he can be in an offense that isn’t expected to throw deep very often. Brown caught just 10 passes for 128 yards and a touchdown in the final eight games of the season, including the playoff loss.
Value:
Wide receiver is one of the hottest positions in the NFL. Just looking at the contracts handed out last offseason should tell you that pass catchers make the big bucks and that the Ravens aren’t going to be able to bring him back for the same $5 million he earned in 2018. He’s certainly not going to get paid like Odell Beckham Jr. or Antonio Brown, but he’s definitely in line for a pay raise in 2019.
A sensible comparison for Brown would be Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver DeSean Jackson. Jackson signed a three-year $33 million deal before 2017, after catching 56 passes for 1,005 yards and four touchdowns, per Over The Cap.
The salary cap is projected to go up once again, which means that the contracts will also be going up. Brown might be one of the top receivers in what looks to be a group of wide receivers that isn’t too strong heading into free agency. It doesn’t help the draft doesn’t have a wealth of top talent either, with most expected to go on Day 2.
A three-year deal worth $37.5 million would be better than Brown’s production and status as a starting player. The guaranteed money and structure of the deal will be what’s important to watch given Brown’s injury history.
Chance to re-sign:
Baltimore already needs to address wide receiver in the draft and free agency, as it always does. There’s the possibility that the Ravens might part with Michael Crabtree. So letting Brown walk would mean that they would need to find two receivers in the draft or free agency who can start right away in 2019, or it means that they’re expecting Jaleel Scott and Jordan Lasley — who didn’t play a down on offense between them in 2018 — to become full-time starters.
If the Ravens want to have continuity at wide receiver, which is desirable since Jackson will be taking over in 2019, they should give Brown a deal similar to the one I listed on the previous page. And the while the team might get a compensatory pick if Brown left, it really wouldn’t even be worth it. And Brown has said he would like to be back in Baltimore on a long-term deal.
General manager Eric DeCosta is claiming to value and evaluate wide receivers differently than his predecessor, Ozzie Newsome. Combine that with the Ravens’ run-heavy offensive scheme and Brown’s likely cost, it isn’t very likely he returns to Baltimore in 2019.
