With the start of free agency is a little over three weeks away, it’s time to take a look at the players that the Baltimore Ravens will be making decisions on.
Today we’re profiling running back Alex Collins.
Things were much different for Collins this time last year. The hype was building for the young running back, who ran for 973 yards in 2017 despite not being named the starter until the middle of the season. But Collins’ future is looking cloudy after a down year in which he was replaced by Gus Edwards after 10 games before getting sent to injured reserve.
2018 review
Collins came plummeting back to Earth in 2018. While he scored a career-high eight total touchdowns, he declined just about everywhere else. His yards per carry dropped to 3.6, a full yard down from 2017. His longest run only went for 19 yards in 2018. His ball-security issues came back in full force, with three fumbles (all lost) in 10 games.
Collins played 311 snaps, good for 26 percent of all snaps. That was 16th-most of all Ravens offensive players, but it was still the most snaps of any Ravens running back.
Potential
Even accounting for Baltimore neglecting the running game during the early part of the season, Collins was still a major disappointment in 2018. He fumbled at terrible times, and it was clear that his running style was not effective in this offense.
He turns 25 in August, so it’s still too early to say that Collins is done. But considering how Edwards and Kenneth Dixon were able to function in the new offense and steal the top two spots at running back later in the season, it makes you wonder what things look like for Collins with the Ravens long-term.
Value
Collins is a restricted free agent, so the Ravens will have the right of first refusal to match an offer sheet from another team or let Collins walk. The difference among the types of RFA tenders is in the salary cap hit and the draft compensation.
The team has the ability to give him a first- or second-round tender that would almost assuredly fend off any other team. But after his down year, it’s unlikely the Ravens are willing to pay Collins the $3.1 million to $4.4 million commitment Over The Cap is projecting for those tenders.
It makes far more sense for the Ravens to give Collins the original-round tender at a projected $2 million. Since Collins was selected in the fifth round, it would net Baltimore a fifth-round selection if another team were to sign him to an offer sheet and the Ravens refuse to match.
Chance to re-sign
The ball is in Baltimore’s court with Collins. He can’t negotiate with another team unless the Ravens release him. Even though Baltimore has to worry about a ton of free agents this offseason, the $2 million original-round tender that would be needed to bring Collins back is a drop in the bucket compared to what some other players will be commanding this offseason.
While another team could tender him, it seems unlikely given his injury and low production in 2018.
Unless general manager Eric DeCosta decides to be more ruthless than his predecessor Ozzie Newsome, I predict the Ravens will give Collins an original-round tender that at least ensures he’ll be able to compete for a job in training camp and the preseason.
