The 2018 season is over for the Baltimore Ravens. Now the Ravens have entered the offseason, the first part of which is coming soon, with free agency starting in a little over a month and a half on March 11th. General manager Eric DeCosta will have to make some decisions in who to keep and who to let go and we’re going to take a look at the major players heading into free agency.
Today we’re continuing with a look at inside linebacker C.J. Mosley
Like Suggs, Mosley has a case for being the biggest name on the Ravens roster. But while Suggs is a big name because of his achievements in the past, Mosley is a big name because of what he’s currently done and what he will likely do in the future. When Baltimore took Mosley with the 16th overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, the expectation was that he’d be the long-term successor for Ray Lewis, who retired after the 2012 season.
And Mosley has pretty much met those expectations. He’s been a starter since Day 1, only missing three games in five seasons. He’s made the Pro Bowl four times over that time span. He’s been one of the best inside linebackers in the game and at 26 years old, the former Alabama product is really just entering his prime.
2018 review:
Mosley started in 15 games for Baltimore in his fifth season but missed some time thanks to a bone bruise in his knee. Despite the injury and missed time, Mosley still finished the season with 105 tackles, 0.5 sacks, five passes defensed, and an interception that sealed Baltimore’s playoff berth. He made it to the Pro Bowl and was voted on to the All-Pro Second Team for the fourth time.
Mosley played 875 defensive snaps, good for 84.5 percent of all snaps. That’s good enough for the third-most snaps of any Raven defender, and the most snaps of any defender outside of the secondary.
Mosley finished with a 73.6 overall grade from Pro Football Focus. He had an 80.1 run grade and 66.5 coverage grade for the season.
Potential:
After five seasons, we can pretty much rely on Mosley to get at least 100 tackles over the course of a season and rack up a few sacks, fumble recoveries and interceptions along the way. He’s joined Marshal Yanda as one of the few Ravens players who reliably makes the Pro Bowl and All-Pro lists.
Mosley turns 27 in June and it’s reasonable to believe that he can play at his current level for at least the next five years. He’s become a leader on the defense and while not the most vocal player in the locker room, is a great presence all around.
We’ve likely seen Mosley’s ceiling by now. He struggles at times in coverage, especially against faster players. That will require Baltimore to find another inside linebacker to play a coverage role next to him. But where Mosley excels is in leading the defensive calls and stopping the run.
Value:
Let’s face facts . . . Mosley isn’t going to be cheap.
He’s in the prime of his career and he’s the biggest free agent inside linebacker this offseason. Whether it comes from the Ravens or somewhere else, Mosley is going to get a big contract in 2019.
While they aren’t on the same level, the deal signed by Carolina Panthers linebacker Luke Kuechly is the comparison. But Eric Kendricks inking a five-year deal worth $50 million only confirmed Mosley will be in that same area.
The cap is projected to rise by more than $10 million once again. Mosley is also hitting the free agent market as the obvious top option at his position and Kuechly’s deal is a few years old now. All that points to Mosley becoming the highest-paid inside linebacker in the NFL, even if just barely.
A five-year deal worth $62 million with $22 million guaranteed offers the best of both worlds. It would put Mosley over top of Kuechly’s contract to give him the title. But with a lower guarantee, it could effectively turn it into a three-year deal with large cap savings if Baltimore wants to move on at that time or rework the contract. The franchise tag is expected to top $15 million for Mosley in 2019, which incentivizes Baltimore to work out a long-term contract where they can play with the cap hits on their terms.
The floor for Mosley’s contract would be the $10 million-per-year five other inside linebackers are earning right now. Which would be a steal for the Ravens.
Chance to re-sign:
If Mosley were to leave, Baltimore wouldn’t be able to replace him immediately. Patrick Onwuasor is a good linebacker, but he isn’t on Mosley’s level and it’s too early in Kenny Young’s career to say that he’ll be able to be a starter, let alone someone who can play on or near the level of Mosley. The Ravens would likely have to expend significant resources in free agency or the draft if Mosley left in March.
That’s likely why both coach John Harbaugh and general manager Eric DeCosta have been so clear in what they’ve said about Mosley in their ‘State of the Ravens’ press conferences. Baltimore simply can’t afford to let Mosley walk away and expect their defense to be anywhere near the same level in 2019.
That means the Ravens are going to have to reach into their wallet and pay the big bucks if they want to keep Mosley around. They could franchise tag Mosley, but with it expected to be over $15 million for 2019, it’s a pretty lousy stop-gap solution to the problem.
Even if Baltimore was willing to part ways with Mosley, they likely wouldn’t just let him leave in free agency. Tagging Mosley and then trading him would make the most sense since the highest compensatory selection the Ravens could get would just be a third-round selection in the 2020 NFL draft. As we’ve seen in recent years, premier players can be traded in this fashion for high draft picks pretty easily, and Mosley fits the billing.
Given the strong stance DeCosta and Harbaugh have taken publicly with Mosley’s negotiations as well as Baltimore’s need, I just can’t see Mosley leaving the Ravens this offseason without something monumental happening. I’d say Baltimore has a 95 percent chance to either re-sign or franchise tag Mosley this offseason.
