ANALYSIS – Former Sen. John E. Sununu announced a comeback bid in New Hampshire on Wednesday, boosting Republican chances of winning the seat near the core of the fight for Senate control in 2026.
Republicans remain favored to maintain their majority at this stage of the cycle because Democrats need a net gain of four seats, including at least two GOP-held seats in Republican-leaning states, to flip the chamber. The seat Sununu is seeking is currently held by retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. So a loss in New Hampshire would force Democrats to offset that with a win in an additional Republican state.
Unlike some Senate candidates, Sununu won’t struggle with name identification. He’s the son of former governor and former White House chief of staff John H. Sununu and the older brother of former Gov. Chris Sununu, who didn’t seek reelection in 2024. He also held this Senate seat himself for one term and represented half of the state in the House for six years. And Sununu enters this race with support from Senate Republican leadership.
While New Hampshire didn’t get as much attention as the seven swing states in the 2024 presidential election, it’s very competitive. Vice President Kamala Harris finished ahead of President Donald Trump by 3 points, which made it closer than Arizona. And Democrats here have an advantage of just 2.3 points (50.4-48.1 percent), according to Inside Elections’ Baseline measure of a state’s political performance, which combines all federal and state election results over the past four cycles into a single average.
We’re changing the Inside Elections rating of the Senate race in New Hampshire from Lean Democratic to Tilt Democratic, which is one category better for Republicans.
Sununu’s entry, though, shouldn’t gloss over the challenge that remains ahead for the GOP.
Republicans haven’t won a Senate race in the Granite State since 2010, when Kelly Ayotte won her lone term before losing six years later to Democrat Maggie Hassan. Sununu was elected to the Senate in 2002 and lost to Shaheen in 2008.
While Republicans won’t have to defeat an incumbent next year, Democrats are poised to nominate a serious candidate in 1st District Rep. Chris Pappas, who already represents half the state and comes from a well-known family. Republicans will also be dealing with a negative political environment unless Trump’s job approval rating improves.
There’s also no guarantee that Sununu will win the primary. Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who moved back to his home state after losing reelection to Elizabeth Warren in 2012, has been in this race for months and has a previous statewide bid under his belt after losing to Shaheen by 3 points in 2014.
More importantly, Brown is ready to prosecute his case by pointing out Sununu’s past opposition to Trump. Sununu supported Ohio Gov. John Kasich in the 2016 presidential primary and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s primary challenge to Trump in 2024. The day before the New Hampshire primary, Sununu wrote an opinion piece entitled “Donald Trump is a loser.”
Even if Brown can’t keep up with Sununu’s fundraising pace, he has enough of a profile and New Hampshire is a small enough state for the message to get out. Trump has shown a willingness to forgive past critics (including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio) but that doesn’t mean primary voters are willing to forget.
New Hampshire’s nonpresidential primaries are late, so if the GOP feud continues through the Sept. 8, 2026, primary, Pappas would have an early opportunity to focus on the general election. That said, Sununu defeated Sen. Bob Smith in a late primary in 2002 and still won that November, in a good year for Republicans around the country.
In addition to facing a potentially challenging political environment, Sununu will also be on the defensive for his post-Senate lobbying work. That will be new information to most voters and thus isn’t being factored into early polling of the race.
The bottom line is that Sununu is a serious candidate in a competitive state in a race without an incumbent. And it makes Democrats’ path to a Senate majority at least a little more complicated.
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