So here we are: The most intriguing member of the 2019 NFL Draft quarterback class heading into Year Two will be … Jarrett Stidham?
It sure appears as if the New England Patriots are content to hand their post-Tom Brady starter tag to the fourth-round selection out of Auburn. We’ve examined (and discussed at length) what Stidham might look like in that role previously.
But there are five QBs from the 2019 class who played in meaningful NFL games last year, and their film/numbers give us real evidence to go on as we try to predict what they’ll become.
Finding a capable QB in today’s NFL is absolutely essential. That search dictates the life-cycle of a team: Once you think you’ve truly found one, you go for it. But if you’re perpetually searching — looking at you, Broncos — then everything else feels like it’s on hold.
So I ranked last year’s rookies based on a further review of their film, and I discussed my thoughts on each — as well as predicted whether they’d stick — with Chris Korman on the latest edition of our podcast, The Counter. Listen here, or wherever you get your podcasts.
5. Gardner Minshew, Jaguars
I’m still not sure what to make of Minshew’s rookie season. Using statistical measures, you could make a convincing argument that he was the best first-year passer in the NFL. The film and more advanced metrics tell a different story, however. But not in the ways you’d assume.
For instance, Minshew, who doesn’t own the strongest arm, was one of the better deep-ball passers in the league based on whatever passing metric you prefer. The key to his deep ball prowess is timing. Minshew gets the ball out early so even if he has to put a little more air under the ball, the receiver doesn’t have to wait for it to fall back down to earth.
Air Raid quarterbacks like Minshew are typically more efficient in the quick passing game, but that’s not necessarily the case here. While he was above-average in Pro Football Focus’ accuracy metrics on deep throws, he was well below average everywhere else, finishing 33rd out of 35 quarterbacks in PFF’s overall accuracy metric. Only David Blough finished below Minshew in Next Gen Stats’ Completion Over Expectation (CPOE) stat.
The reason? Minshew missed far too many easy throws. His accuracy was downright erratic at times. He’d even miss easy throws to the flats.
With a weaker arm, Minshew doesn’t have much of a margin for error, so those are throws he just can’t miss if he’s going to be a long-time starter.
While accuracy may be an issue on quicker passes, Minshew is at his best when he gets the ball out of his hands quickly. He’s a sharp dude who can get through his progressions and throw with anticipation.
It’s when he has to hold onto the ball and the pocket starts to close in that Minshew gets out of his depth. He’ll panic and make blind throws into coverage.
According to PFF, Minshew’s turnover-worthy play rate jumps to 5.3% on throws that come after 2.5 seconds and his EPA per play drops to -0.12 on throws to his second or third read.
Long-term outlook: Unless Minshew changes his mentality and embraces his role as a limited quarterback, he’s going to have a hard time avoiding turnovers and ever convincing a coaching staff that he’s a reliable long-term answer at quarterback. He’ll play a long time in this league, but he may have to bounce from team to team — Ryan Fitzpatrick style — in order to do so.
4.Drew Lock, Broncos
In early December, after Lock’s record-breaking second start in Houston, I wrote some less-than-complimentary things about the Broncos’ next great hope at quarterback.
After reviewing the final three starts of his rookie season, allow me to walk back some of those things I wrote. Now, my overall take — that Lock is unlikely to ever develop into a consistently above-average starter — still stands, but he did show some improvement in the areas I did not like about his game. The big one was playing in a timely manner. For the first three starts of his career, Lock was consistently late on throws, which is a problem even when you have an arm as strong as he does.
But the more Lock played, the more he improved in that regard. By Week 16, he was getting the ball out before the receiver got out of his break.
And he was making anticipatory throws into tight windows.
That’s the type of progression that Broncos fans were hoping to see. Unfortunately, that improvement did not extend to passing concepts that required more time in the pocket. Lock’s footwork is still quite awkward. When he’s not just catching the ball and throwing it, Lock will just sort of drift in the pocket instead of syncing his drops with the routes his receivers running, which leads to awkwardly timed throws that throw off his accuracy.
Lock’s lack of comfort shows up in the numbers, as well. His performance dropped off considerably when going from quick dropbacks (0-3 steps) to deeper drops (5-7 steps). His EPA went from 19.2 to -2.6. His success rate plummeted from 52.5 to 38.7. And his “on-target” throw percentage dropped from 78.7 to 71.4.
Despite having one of the stronger arms in the league, Lock really struggled when pushing the ball downfield and ball placement was the big reason why. He just doesn’t do a good job of putting the ball out of the defender’s reach and in a spot where only his receiver can get .. especially when throwing downfield.
Lock finished 15th in PFF’s overall accuracy metric, but in its “accuracy+” metric, which tracks perfectly-placed passes, he finished 34th out of 35 quarterbacks. Denver’s coaching staff seemed to understand this and didn’t ask their rookie to make too many demanding throws downfield, which is why Lock finished 29th in big-time throw percentage. That’s not too big of a concern, but this is: Despite that, Lock still managed to throw into coverage A LOT and he finished with a turnover-worthy play percentage that ranked 28th in the league.
Long-term outlook: Lock is undeniably a talented passer. When the picture is clear for him and he can just take the snap and deliver a throw, everything looks like it’s supposed to. It’s when he has to go to Plan B or C within the structure of the offense that things get dicey. In that way, he reminds me of Jimmy Garoppolo … just without a certified offensive genius dialing up plays for him.
3. Daniel Jones, Giants
I was higher on Jones (more than most) before the 2019 NFL draft, so I was not surprised when he looked competent during his rookie season, completing 61.9% of his passes and throwing 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
As was the case during his time at Duke, Jones looked the part of a seasoned vet when operating in the quick passing game. He clearly has a strong grasp on how to time his drops and when to go from one read to the next.
Jones’ bravery in the pocket is one of the things I like most about him, and it carried over to the pros … to a fault. I don’t know how to put this any other way: The dude is just oblivious to what’s going on around him. This is an extreme example, but with a defender bearing down on him, Jones just doesn’t react and takes a big hit.
Jones’ bravery is obviously an asset at times, like when he’s throwing dimes downfield while under duress…
But it’s also the main reason he fumbled approximately FIVE THOUSAND times. Compounding the problem, Jones would make reckless decisions the longer he held onto the ball.
Put those two issues together, and it’s not a surprise he finished with the third-highest turnover-worthy play rate in the NFL, and that rate jumped up to 7.4% on plays that lasted longer than 2.5 seconds, according to Pro Football Focus.
It’s when Jones was able to get rid of the ball quickly that he really shined. He finished with an EPA/play of 0.11 when on throws that came before the 2.5-second threshold. That number dropped to -0.28 after 2.5 seconds.
For whatever reason, the Giants coaching staff didn’t do more to make things easier on their rookie quarterback. His play-action rate (18%) was one of the lowest in the league and despite him playing his best out of empty formations, where he finished around league average in both EPA and success rate, it was an under-utilized strategy.
Long-term outlook: All in all, Jones’ rookie season had to be considered a success. If the new Giants coaching staff can play to his strengths a bit more, Jones may cut down on the disaster players, and that’s really the only thing holding him back from being a league-average starter.
2. Dwayne Haskins, Redskins
If you were to ask most NFL fans which of the rookie quarterbacks who started multiple games was the shakiest, I’d imagine a large majority would pick Haskins, who didn’t put up the most encouraging stat line. The Ohio State product averaged 6.7 yards per attempt and threw as many interceptions as he did touchdowns.
But the more you watch Haskins’ tape, the more optimistic you’ll be. The first thing that stands out is his arm talent. The dude can sling it. This is an incompletion but I’m in awe how strong this throw is despite Haskins not being able to finish his throwing motion with a defender right in his grill.
That big arm, along with Haskins’ understanding of where to place the ball in spots where only his receiver can catch it, should have led to more production, but he did not get a lot of help from his teammates.
Haskins had the biggest gap between Total Points per attempt — Sports Info Solutions’ proprietary stat that takes EPA and adjusts it based on a player’s individual contribution to a play — and EPA per attempt in the league. He led the rookie class in total points per attempt by a wide margin on clean pocket throws that traveled past the line of scrimmage.
Haskins was consistently forced to throw into tight windows but still avoided turnover-worthy plays at an elite rate, finishing with the fifth-lowest percentage according to PFF despite finishing second in Next Gen Stats’ aggressive throw percentage, which is the rate at which he threw to a receiver with less than a yard of separation. That’s where Haskins’ ball placement really helped.
Haskins’ biggest issue during his rookie campaign was his timing. The 22-year-old finished with the ninth-highest average time to throw, which led to a lot of sacks that could not be blamed on Washington’s offensive line. Haskins’ sack rate (12.7%) was two times higher than Case Keenum’s (5.7%). Holding onto the ball did not work out well for the rookie. His EPA per play dropped to -0.43 and he was consistently late on throws, allowing the defense to close in on the ball.
But I’m optimistic that he’ll figure that out as he gets more experience because in college when he mastered Ohio State’s playbook and there were flashes of him getting through his progressions in a hurry toward the end of the season.
Long-term outlook: Outside of the guy at the top of these rankings, Haskins is the one player who has a legitimate shot at developing into a star quarterback. It’s going to take a lot of work in the areas of concern I’ve covered here, but with that combination of arm strength and football acumen raises his ceiling considerably.
1. Kyler Murray, Cardinals
Murray is the one quarterback in this group where the numbers and film don’t really match up. He did not perform well in most advanced metrics but a poor supporting cast is a big reason why. The Cardinals just didn’t have receivers who could win downfield, forcing Murray to make inch-perfect throws to create big plays.
Murray has the best arm in this class and probably the best of any prospect we’ve seen since Patrick Mahomes in 2017. Thanks to that arm, he finished 8th in on-target throw% on throws more than 20 yards downfield, according to Sports Info Solutions’ Bryce Rossler. But those downfield throws didn’t always turn into completion, hence Murray’s underwhelming stat line.
Statistically speaking, Murray was much better in the quick game, finishing 11th in success rate and 12th in EPA per attempt on those plays. That’s an encouraging sign considering that those plays make up the bulk of NFL passing attempts.
The Cardinals’ struggles on offense in the red zone are another big reason why Murray’s stats don’t look great. Kliff Kingsbury did not do a good job calling plays in the red zone — way too many goal-line fades — but adding DeAndre Hopkins should help in that regard.
The biggest concern for Murray is his sack rate. I wouldn’t say he’s uncomfortable in the pocket, but he prefers to exit out of the backdoor rather than stepping up in the pocket. That makes things harder on his tackles and leads to some comical sacks.
We can’t leave here without talking about Murray’s contribution in the run game. He was really the only rookie quarterback who was truly a factor in the run game, finishing behind only Lamar Jackson in both designed run attempts and EPA on those plays.
As he gets more comfortable against NFL speed, as Lamar did, he could take a massive leap in Year 2.
Long-term outlook: With a true No. 1 receiver in Hopkins, who will give Arizona an answer for man coverage and in the red zone, the Cardinals offense should take off. As Murray gets used to playing against NFL defenses and his mind catches up with his immense physical ability, the better he’ll get. I would not be surprised if he plays like a top-10 quarterback in 2020. And if the Cardinals win enough games, he could be a sneaky MVP candidate.
