The 2022 NFL regular season is over. Fourteen teams have emerged from the scattered wreckage of an 18-week chain reaction of explosions with Super Bowl 57 dreams still intact.
Wild Card weekend, split into a three-day, six game extravaganza, will be the end of the line for six of those teams. The Divisional Round will shed four more. There may be an odd contender or two in the mix of broken hearts — at least one of the AFC’s power broker contingent of the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals is guaranteed to be there. But for the most part, the teams who lose en route to the conference championships will be road underdogs whose promising stories were always a longshot to end in Arizona.
Who makes up the wheat and who is the chaff in this situation? Anything is possible in the NFL, particularly when the New York Giants are part of the mix. But a 14-team field with only one bye for either conference leaves few gilded roads to the Super Bowl and many more covered in potholes and broken plays.
Knowing that, which team has the brightest Lombardi Trophy hopes at the start of the 2023 NFL Playoffs? And who’ll need a healthy dose of turnover luck to fire off a Cinderella run to the biggest game of the year?
14
Miami Dolphins
If Tua Tagovailoa were in the lineup, Miami would land somewhere toward the middle of the pack. But this remains a Skylar Thompson/Teddy Bridgewater production. On the bright side, expectations will be easy to meet.
The Dolphins are 8-4 in games Tagovailoa has finished, but he’s dealing with what’s either his second or third head injury of the season, depending on who you listen to. Even if he’d played, Miami would have to reverse the tide of regression that ripped this team back to deep water after a stellar start to 2022. Tagovailoa was 0-4 in his last four games. His passer rating in that stretch, once a league-best 115.7 after Week 12, was a meager 80.5. Thompson, with action in four games this season, clocks in at 62.2.
A ferocious Bills team awaits the seventh round rookie and the injured journeyman with whom he’s split time this season. Oh, and the Miami defense in its last four showdowns against playoff teams? It gave up more than 28 points per game.
13
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle pushed its way into the postseason in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year to kick off the post-Russell Wilson era. The Seahawks would love for this campaign to be more than that, but they combine a middling defense with a not-quite-trustworthy offense.
After a brilliant start, Geno Smith has fallen back to earth. While he remains a viable starter, he’s no longer a top 10 quarterback and looks more and more like the kind of player who’ll need his team to rise up around him on both sides of the ball.
Seattle went 2-4 against playoff opponents in 2022. Pete Carroll is a valuable coach with strong postseason credentials. Making a run with this team could be his greatest accomplishment yet.
12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The good news: the Buccaneers have Tom Brady and, after winning the NFC South (kinda by default), at least one guaranteed playoff home game. The bad news: this team is not very good.
Injuries and attrition in the middle of the offensive line have Brady chucking the ball early in his reads, leading to a low sack rate (good) and the shortest average target distance of his career (bad). He threw the ball nearly 100 more times than Patrick Mahomes and completed more than two-thirds of those, yet still finished more than 500 yards behind 2022’s passing yard leader. Combine that with the league’s least efficient run game and you’ve got an offense that’s often painful to watch.
But hey, the defense is OK and it’s Brady in what could be his final playoff run as a Buccaneer. You never count out Touchdown Tom.
11
Baltimore Ravens
Like the Dolphins, quarterback health plays a significant role here. Lamar Jackson hasn’t played since leaving Week 13 early with an injury. Tyler Huntley and Anthony Brown have been left to ineffectively spray passes at James Proche, Sammy Watkins, DeSean Jackson and the rest of an XFL-adjacent receiving corps.
Jackson’s return could bring just enough life to the Baltimore offense to allow a raging defense to thrive. Since trading for Roquan Smith — who recently signed a contract extension that will pay him an average of $20 million annually — the Ravens have allowed only 14.7 points per game. They start their postseason against the Bengals, a team they beat in Week 5 but also one that hasn’t lost a game since Halloween.
10
New York Giants
Brian Daboll took the raw materials from a franchise that had averaged 4.4 wins per season over the prior five years, found a way to minimize risk and got his players to buy into balanced, smashmouth football in order to end the Giants’ playoff drought. But New York is only 3-5-1 since its Week 9 bye and those victories came over the Commanders, Texans and Colts — all of whom are bad at football.
On the plus side, the Giants face the Vikings in the Wild Card round. New York acquitted itself well when these teams met in Minneapolis in Week 16. Daniel Jones’ offense out-gained Minnesota in a back-and-forth game, only to lose on a 61-yard Greg Joseph field goal at the buzzer. Can Jones prove he’s a viable playoff starter under Daboll? Or will the three regrettable seasons preceding his efficient 2022 bleed through at the worst possible time?
9
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have talent on both sides of the ball and one of the more favorable road matchups against the streaky Jacksonville Jaguars. But only one of Los Angeles’ 10 wins came over a 2023 playoff team — a freefalling Dolphins squad.
Justin Herbert is a talented quarterback hamstrung by the playcalling around him and injuries to his offensive line. His run offense averages 3.8 yards per carry (30th best in the NFL) and his continually broken run defense gives up 5.2 (32nd). This is a good team that manages to fall short in nearly every opportunity it is given, true to Charger form.
On the other hand, LA has a top 10 turnover margin, can operate in chaos and doesn’t have to worry about not having homefield advantage because it never does. The Chargers might have a run in them; it starts in Jacksonville.
8
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is the least inspiring 13-win team in NFL history. This team managed to finish nine games over .500 despite a scoring differential of negative-three points. That is stunning.
The Vikings are still dangerous, however. Kirk Cousins is easy to clown once he takes the spotlight, but his big throws late in a 2020 Wild Card game lifted his team over the Saints in New Orleans. This year he’s got a fully realized Justin Jefferson and midseason addition TJ Hockenson in his arsenal — two players who combined for 25 catches and three touchdowns the last time they saw Wild Card opponent New York.
Beat the Giants and Minnesota is likely looking at a matchup against 2022’s Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy. There’s a path through the wilderness here, even if it will need some help from the football gods to get there. It will also be littered with insufferable Cousins memes along the way.
7
Jacksonville Jaguars
Is this too high for a team that needed a controversial Joshua Dobbs fumble to beat the tattered remnants of the Tennessee Titans and clinch the AFC South?
Yeah, probably.
Regardless, the Jags enter the playoffs on a heater, having dispatched the Ravens (with Lamar Jackson) and Cowboys while sweeping Tennessee in dramatic fashion to rally from 2-6 to the Wild Card round. Trevor Lawrence has realized his potential as a franchise quarterback in that stretch, ranking third among all playoff QBs in overall efficiency since Week 12.
An iffy defense has used the soft tail end of the schedule to get right as well. Over the last three week, Jacksonville has significantly more turnovers forced (five) than touchdowns allowed (one).
6
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are likely facing three straight road games on their path to the Super Bowl. They’ve got a quarterback capable of dizzying heights and staggering lows. Their head coach is Mike McCarthy, whose hallmark in the NFL is shiny regular season records and playoff decisions seemingly designed to antagonize his own fanbase.
It’s been nearly two months since Dak Prescott has gone a game without tossing an interception. Some of those are the product of bad luck on good throws, but it’s still a problem for a team that’s forced 17 turnovers in its last six games and lost the turnover battle in half of them. There are weeks where Dallas blows the doors off opponents and others where it wins in spite of itself.
That’s a shame, because this roster has the makeup of a Super Bowl team. The Cowboys rank second in overall defensive DVOA and fourth in points scored. Advanced stats paint Prescott as a top 10 quarterback despite his interception issues. This team is absolutely capable of making a deep run but has spent a good chunk of 2022 providing reasons why it won’t.
5
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals’ AFC title defense has come together after a rocky start. A rebuilt offensive line has found its footing. Joe Burrow, sacked roughly 30 percent less often than he was in 2021, absolutely looks like a perennial MVP candidate. The defense that came together last postseason has been significantly better this fall — another leap forward could be devastating for the rest of the conference’s contenders.
At the same time, Burrow’s run support is inconsistent (3.9 yards per attempt) and a road trip to Buffalo likely looms in the Divisional Round. That’s where the Bengals would have to face a fired-up Bills team, on the road. That could be trouble.
4
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco hasn’t lost a game since October 23 — a span that covers Jimmy Garoppolo’s broken foot and Brock Purdy’s ascent from Mr. Irrelevant to one of 2022’s most efficient quarterbacks (albeit across a small sample size). The 49ers are built to minimize the impact of a defective quarterback, leaving Purdy with easy reads and short throws that stars like Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel spring for big gains.
Purdy is likely to regress against the tougher secondaries and pass rushes of the playoffs (though games against the bottom-12 defenses of the Seahawks and Vikings, should seeds hold, wouldn’t really test that theory). Fortunately, San Francisco has the talent to cover for that.
The Niners have the league’s top-ranked defense thanks to star turns from players like Talanoa Hufanga and Charvarius Ward behind one of the deepest defensive lines around. If Purdy can avoid turnovers in clutch situations, he can go from the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft to starting quarterback in Super Bowl 57.
3
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes was 2022’s most efficient quarterback and likely to cruise to his second regular season MVP award. An offense without Tyreek Hill kept clicking thanks to Travis Kelce’s sustained excellence and contributions from players across the depth chart. Chris Jones was this season’s best interior lineman and the Kansas City defense brought pressure on nearly 25 percent of opponents’ dropbacks.
The Chiefs have the AFC’s top record, a coach who has won the Super Bowl before and the quarterback likely to be 2022’s regular season MVP. So why aren’t they higher in a playoff structure that greatly rewards the top regular season teams with revitalizing bye weeks?
The Chiefs’ homefield advantage isn’t really homefield advantage when it comes to the conference championship thanks to the neutral field solution spurred by the cancellation of Week 17’s Bills-Bengals game. Those two teams are responsible for 67 percent of Kansas City’s losses this season and there’s a very good chance one will be waiting in the AFC title game should Andy Reid’s team get that far.
2
Buffalo Bills
The Bills faced no shortage of motivation after bowing out of the playoffs last year thanks to a late Chiefs comeback and some unfortunate coin toss luck. Now they’ve got even more to play for following Damar Hamlin’s on-field collapse and stunning recovery. If any team in the postseason has a “team of destiny” vibe, it’s this one.
Of course, that sells Buffalo’s mastery short. Josh Allen still has moments where he places himself in trouble, but they’re massively outweighed by bruising, drive-extending runs and mutant throws downfield few other NFL quarterbacks can match.
UN. REAL.
📺: @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/AWZpDUIK79
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 8, 2023
Injuries have been trouble on the defensive side of the ball but the Bills remain an absolute masher — especially with All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White healthy again. Buffalo has the depth, talent, and motivation to make its first Super Bowl appearance since 1994.
1
Philadelphia Eagles
The NFC’s path to Super Bowl 57 runs through Philadelphia, where Jalen Hurts is 5-0 against teams that finished 2022 with winning records. The bye week gives Lane Johnson the opportunity to heal his torn abdominal muscle and Hurts extra time to rest his sprained shoulder. The MVP candidate is 14-1 as a starter this season and one of the league’s most explosive dual threat quarterbacks.
Hurts is a very important piece of the puzzle, but there’s much more to like than the rising young QB. Philly’s defense ranked No. 1 against the pass in 2022, holding all but five opponents to fewer than 200 yards through the air despite having the lead in most of its games. The Eagles had 15 more sacks than anyone in the league. DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown combined for nearly 2,700 receiving yards and no offense scored more rushing touchdowns, leaving defenses to pick their poison.
Combine that with homefield advantage and an NFC that isn’t quite as intimidating as the opposite conference, and you’ve got a clear favorite to make it to Super Bowl 57.
