The dog days of summer have come and gone and as the temperature in some parts of the globe begins to gradually drop, the temperature in MLB is rising. Division and wild card races are running hot as the calendar prepares to flip from August to September and contenders move ever closer towards solidifying playoff spots. The playoff picture in MLB is beginning to take shape but there is much still to decide. Can the defending champion Dodgers hold off a furious second-half push from the Padres to win the National League West division title? Can the Astros do the same against a surging Mariners club?
The final month of the regular season will provide the answers to these questions and more. But before all that, it's worth taking a look at the remaining schedules of each contender. Who has the toughest remaining schedule? Who has the easiest path?
Ranking MLB Contenders' Strength of Schedules
Note: The term "contenders" includes division-leading teams, teams currently holding wild card spots and teams that are five games back or fewer from first place in a given division or for a wild card spot at the time of publishing.
The following contending teams are ranked in order from easiest schedule to hardest schedule, in terms of opponent winning percentage.
Now, let's take a deeper dive into each team's schedule in the divisional and wild card races.
American League East
Toronto Blue Jays
- Position in Playoff Race: 1st in AL East
- Fangraphs Playoff Odds: 99.7%
- Biggest Remaining Matchups: vs. NYY Sept. 5-7, vs. BOS Sept. 23-25
Toronto will be battle-tested in the final month, as four of its final nine series will be against teams currently in the postseason picture.
Boston Red Sox
- Position in Playoff Race: 1st AL Wild Card
- Fangraphs Playoff Odds: 94.6%
- Biggest Remaining Matchups: vs. NYY Sept. 12-14, vs. TOR Sept. 23-25
Boston has it slightly easier than Toronto, as just three of its final nine series are against playoff teams. Six straight games against the Blue Jays and first-place Tigers to end the season is certainly a gauntlet, though.
New York Yankees
- Position in Playoff Race: 2nd AL Wild
- Fangraphs Playoff Odds: 98.1%
- Biggest Remaining Matchups: vs. TOR Sept. 5-7, vs. BOS Sept. 12-14
One thing is for sure: the Yankees will find out what they're made of in the season's last month. From Sept. 2 to the 14th, the Yankees, respectively, face the Astros, Blue Jays, Tigers and Red Sox. Blue Jays and Tigers and Red Sox, oh my!
American League West
Houston Astros
- Position in Playoff Race: 1st in AL West
- Fangraphs Playoff Odds: 90.8%
- Biggest Remaining Matchups: vs. SEA Sept. 19-21
The late-September series against the Mariners very well could decide the division. But games against the Yankees, two series against the Rangers and games against the Blue Jays loom large as well.
Seattle Mariners
- Position in Playoff Race: 3rd AL Wild Card
- Fangraphs Playoff Odds: 90.4%
- Biggest Remaining Matchups: vs. HOU Sept. 19-21
The Mariners' sneaky-tough schedule peaks in the season's final week with a pivotal series against the Astros and a test against the defending-champion Dodgers sandwiched around a series against the lowly Rockies.
American League Wild Card Race
Note: The teams currently occupying the AL wild card spots—the Red Sox, Yankees and Mariners—were discussed above.
Kansas City Royals
- Position in Playoff Race: 4th in AL Wild Card chase
- Fangraphs Playoff Odds: 14.6%
- Biggest Remaining Matchups: vs. SEA Sept. 16-18
Kansas City has played its way back into the AL Wild Card race and will have a chance to at least cause mayhem with matchups against the Tigers, Guardians, Phillies, Mariners and Blue Jays in September.
Texas Rangers
- Position in Playoff Race: 5th in AL Wild Card chase
- Fangraphs Playoff Odds: 7.3%
- Biggest Remaining Matchups: vs. HOU Sept. 5-7, 15-17
Even after losing ace Nathan Eovaldi to a rotator cuff strain, the math still says the Rangers have a chance to make the postseason. And six games against the Astros in September give the 2023 World Series champs a chance to take destiny into its own hands.
Cleveland Guardians
- Position in Playoff Race: 6th in AL Wild Card chase
- Fangraphs Playoff Odds: 3.8%
- Biggest Remaining Matchups: vs. SEA Aug. 29-31, vs. KC Sept. 8-11, vs. TEX Sept. 26-28
The Guardians have had a nightmarish August but are still in the running for the AL Wild Card. Worst case, they muck up the plans of playoff-caliber teams like the Mariners and Red Sox. Best case, they take their nearly 4 percent playoff odds and make something crazy happen.
National League East
Philadelphia Phillies
- Position in Playoff Race: 1st in NL East
- Fangraphs Playoff Odds: 99.8%
- Biggest Remaining Matchups: vs. MIL Sept. 1-4, vs. NYM Sept. 8-11, vs. LAD Sept. 15-17
Despite a three-game sweep at the hands of the Mets, the Phillies remain in the driver's seat for the NL East title. But four straight games against the Amazin's in mid-September could widen their lead or make this race very interesting.
New York Mets
- Position in Playoff Race: 3rd NL Wild Card
- Fangraphs Playoff Odds: 96.6%
- Biggest Remaining Matchups: vs. PHI Sept. 8-11, vs. SD Sept. 16-18, vs. CHC Sept. 23-25
The Mets can take one last shot at the division when they take on the Phillies later in September. But games against the Padres and Cubs present a chance for the Mets to rise up the standings and potentially secure home-field advantage for a Wild Card series should they end up as the first Wild Card.
National League West
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Position in Playoff Race: 1st in NL West
- Fangraphs Playoff Odds: 100%
- Biggest Remaining Matchups: vs. PHI Sept. 15-17, vs. SEA Sept. 26-28
As they look to hold into first place in the NL West, the Dodgers will benefit from a schedule that will see them play just two of their last nine series against current playoff teams.
San Diego Padres
- Position in Playoff Race: 2nd NL Wild Card
- Fangraphs Playoff Odds: 99.5%
- Biggest Remaining Matchups: vs. CIN Sept. 8-10, vs. NYM Sept. 16-18
The Padres don't have it as easy as the Dodgers, even though they do get to play the Rockies seven times in September. Games against the Reds and Mets will be pivotal for San Diego's standing in the Wild Card race, as well as its chances of catching Los Angeles.
National League Wild Card Race
Note: Two of the teams currently occupying NL Wild Card spots—the Mets and Padres—were discussed above.
Chicago Cubs
- Position in Playoff Race: 1st NL Wild Card
- Fangraphs Playoff Odds: 99.5%
- Biggest Remaining Matchups: vs. CIN Sept. 18-21, vs. NYM Sept. 23-25
While the Cubs still have an outside shot at the NL Central title, their most likely path to the postseason is through the wild card, in which they currently hold homefield advantage for a potential series.
Cincinnati Reds
- Position in Playoff Race: 4th in NL Wild Card chase
- Fangraphs Playoff Odds: 3.5%
- Biggest Remaining Matchups: vs. NYM Sept. 5-7, vs. SD Sept. 8-10, vs. CHC Sept. 18-21
The Reds have a golden opportunity to increase their playoff odds with September series against the Mets, Padres and Cubs, each of whom is ahead of them in the NL Wild card standings.
Strength of schedules and playoff odds are subject to change. Here are the latest, up-to-date strength of schedules and playoff odds.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Ranking MLB Strength of Schedules as Playoff Races Heat Up.
