Tom Brady’s unrestricted free agency is an NFL rarity. An all-time great quarterback is set to hit the open market.
What makes his free agency especially interesting is the Pandora’s box its opened regarding possible destinations. Any team that needs a quarterback is a possibility. So are some teams that don’t need quarterbacks. Logic goes out the window when a six-time Super Bowl champion quarterback is available for hire.
Some teams simply don’t need quarterbacks. Others don’t have the cap space. Others aren’t ready to compete – which is surely going to be a criteria if Brady does take a free agency tour.
The other piece of the puzzle that exacerbated the Brady free agent craze is what the 42-year-old did prior to last season. He opted for a contract that made him a free agent in 2020. He also put his home up for sale in Boston.
We attempted to ground the Brady rumors a little bit by looking at all 32 teams and what their realistic chances are of signing the 20-year veteran.
32. Washington
It’d make sense that Brady wanted to hang out near the White House. It would not make sense that he would want to spend the rest of his career near Daniel Snyder.
Chances of signing Brady: Less-than-the-Steelers percent
31. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have no cap space and a quarterback with a $25 million dead cap hit.
Chances of signing Brady: Less-than-0 percent
30. Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson is the highest-paid quarterback in the league and playing at an MVP level. The biggest draw for Brady in Seattle would be teaming up with Pete Carroll to get Carroll’s anti-aging routine.
Chances of signing Brady: 0 percent
29. Baltimore Ravens
For what it’s worth, Lamar Jackson would be better than any wide receiver Brady played with last season.
Chances of signing Brady: 0 percent
28. Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes might be the only quarterback in the league right now with a realistic shot of eventually having a better career than Brady. Plus all the barbecue in Kansas City would surely give Brady hives or something.
Chances of signing Brady: 0 percent
27. Arizona Cardinals
Brady is two years older than Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury. Not to mention Kyler Murray might be on track for a Lamar Jackson-type breakout next season.
Chances of signing Brady: 0 percent
26. Buffalo Bills
The only way Buffalo has a chance is if after two decades with Belichick, Brady decides he wants to hang around other Bills. Also, Josh Allen might actually be good at football.
Chances of signing Brady: 0 percent
25. Houston Texans
The only way to expose their offensive line more would be to put a 43-year-old pocket passer behind them. As long as nobody lets Bill O’Brien know Brady is a free agent, Deshaun Watson and the Texans should be fine.
Chances of signing Brady: 0 percent
24. Cincinnati Bengals
They’re about to draft Joe Burrow who is apparently the second coming of Brady, so getting the 43-year-old version of that doesn’t make that much sense. Cincinnati is also in the early part of a full rebuild, and Brady has no time for that.
Chances of signing Brady: 0 percent
23. Cleveland Browns
If Brady even took a meeting with Cleveland they’d retire his jersey.
Chances of signing Brady: 0 percent
22. Atlanta Falcons
Maybe Brady feels bad for the whole 28-3 thing. Probably not though.
Chances of signing Brady: 0 percent
21. Los Angeles Rams
LA might be a desirable spot for Brady and his family while he plays out the rest of his career. Even if the Rams wanted to upgrade at quarterback, Jared Goff’s $36 million cap hit in 2020 makes that next to impossible.
Chances of signing Brady: 0 percent
20. Detroit Lions
Brady could be a god in Detroit if he guided the Lions to their first playoff victory since 1991. They’re not close to contending though which takes them out of the running.
Chances of signing Brady: 0 percent
19. Carolina Panthers
Joining Panthers new offensive coordinator Joe Brady would mean ‘Brady Bunch’ marketing opportunities out the wazoo!
Chances of signing Brady: 0 percent
18. Green Bay Packers
Does Tom Brady even know what cheese is?
Chances of signing Brady: 0 percent
17. Minnesota Vikings
This would actually make a lot of sense if Minnesota wasn’t still paying Kirk Cousins for one more season. They also have negative-$11 million in cap space. The opportunity to wear a viking helmet at a Super Bowl parade would be too good for Brady to pass up if he could go though.
Chances of signing Brady: 0 percent
16. Jacksonville Jaguars
Florida is a strong selling point for a man about to retire. The city of Jacksonville is not. Plus they have Nick Foles, Gardner Minshew, and Gardner Minshew’s mustache.
Chances of signing Brady: 0 percent
15. New York Jets
While playing for Adam Gase is an enticing proposition …
ha ha just kidding.
Chances of signing Brady: 0 percent
14. Tennessee Titans
What if Brady signs and then head coach Mike Vrabel comes out of retirement to line up in a goal line package on offense so Brady can toss one last touchdown pass to him? The odds of that happening are about as high as the odds Brady winds up in Nashville.
Chances of signing Brady: 0 percent
13. Philadelphia Eagles
If nothing else, this would make a great episode of ‘It’s Always Sunny.’
Chances of signing Brady: 0 percent
12. San Francisco 49ers
Brady grew up a 49ers fan, and Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t win a Super Bowl in his first full year as a starter. Put those two things together and this gets interesting! Only it actually doesn’t. The 49ers were one or two plays from winning the Super Bowl with Garoppolo. He’s their QB.
Chances of signing Brady: 0 percent
11. New York Giants
Taking a big paycheck from the team that beat him twice in the Super Bowl just to be terrible and drive them into the ground and blame it on age would be an all-time elite petty move.
Chances of signing Brady: 0.01 percent
10. Denver Broncos
Stepping into the place where Peyton Manning won his last title and winning one would be a fun story line for Brady to chase to end his career. However, John Elway is determined to never have another quarterback in Denver better than he was, so there’s no chance they chase Brady.
Chances of signing Brady: 0.2 percent
9. New Orleans Saints
Michael Thomas would be the best young receiver Brady has played with. Alvin Kamara is fun and Sean Payton is a great offensive coach. That all being said – the Saints have $9 million in cap space and another over-40 quarterback they’ll likely sign.
Chances of signing Brady: 0.3 percent
8. Dallas Cowboys
This would truly be a Jerry Jones special. Letting Dak Prescott walk because Dallas didn’t want to pay him, then signing Brady for an exorbitant amount going into his Age 43 season would be a potentially catastrophic move.
Now, the odds are the Cowboys will pay Prescott instead of dabbling in free agency. He’s coming off another good year and letting 26-year-old two-time Pro Bowl quarterbacks go is bad team building strategy for even the most out-of-touch owners.
It’s easy to see the link though while Jones aims for another Super Bowl run. There’s a path where he believes Brady gives them a better shot to win than Prescott after an 8-8 finish in 2019. It’s not likely, but it’s not totally off the wall.
Chances of signing Brady: 4 percent
7. Miami Dolphins
It’s hard to imagine Brady would want to stick it to the Pats. But if he did, the Dolphins would be an intriguing destination. Miami has $89 million in cap space and no real plan at quarterback outside of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Brady is the better of the two signal callers if Miami plans on going with a veteran while they iron out what their long-term situation is under center.
One glaring issue for the Dolphins is that their roster is still early in the stages of a tear-down and rebuild. The chances that they’re talented enough to compete for a championship next year are pretty slim, even with Brady playing quarterback. DeVante Parker has developed into a nice weapon, but there’s probably not enough there to entice Brady to finish his career there.
Chances of signing Brady: 6 percent
6. Indianapolis Colts
While Jacoby Brissett is still under contract for 2020, it’s not impossible they make a play for Brady after losing Andrew Luck to a sudden retirement prior to last season. Brissett was fine, but the Colts have a talented roster that could benefit from an upgrade under center.
Indianapolis has $86 million in cap space and not a ton of holes to fill with high-priced free agents. A new quarterback and a couple minor roster tweaks would surely make the the AFC South favorites, and could allow them to contend with the likes of the Ravens and Chiefs. Paying big for Brady to try and put together another Super Bowl run seems like the kind of thing owner Jim Irsay would push to do.
Chances of signing Brady: 13 percent
5. Chicago Bears
Getting to a big city with a team that’s ready to contend would probably be the move for Brady if he is going to leave New England. It’s easy to forget the Bears were a missed kick away from a playoff win in 2019. A big reason for their regression in 2020 was quarterback Mitchell Trubisky.
Winning with a quarterback on a rookie deal is like gold for an NFL team. However, if head coach Matt Nagy is out on Trubisky as the future of the franchise, adding a veteran like Brady to take over for a year or two for a couple playoff runs isn’t a terrible idea.
Releasing Trubisky outright is probably not an option since he’s still on his first contract, so the team would absorb his full cap $9.2 million cap hit to cut him, but a year under Brady might be good for the former No. 2 pick’s development. That would allow Chicago to contend for the next couple seasons and possibly salvage Trubisky’s career all at once.
Chances of signing Brady: 19 percent
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs don’t have a long-term plan at quarterback and perhaps the most dynamic pass-catching duo in the league between Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. That’s the kind of receiver tandem that Brady could ride to a couple more big years. Head coach Bruce Arians is well-respected, too, and may give Brady a lot of room to stretch his legs in the offense.
Tampa Bay is loaded with $79 million in cap space, so fitting a big Brady contract in wouldn’t be a problem. The key issue for them would be whether they have a Super Bowl-ready roster. They’re talented, but they’d need to be ready to contend right away with the clock winding on Brady’s career.
The other glaring issue is what the Buccaneers plan to do post-Brady. They can re-sign Jameis Winston for more years and less money to try and mold him into a less turnover-prone quarterback and stretch their championship window wider than it would be with a 43-year-old throwing passes for them.
Chances of signing Brady: 21 percent
3. Las Vegas Raiders
Making a splash in the NFL’s newest city is the kind of thing that would benefit both parties in a Brady-Raiders union. ESPN’s Adam Schefter already reported that the Raiders will make a push to land Brady if the Patriots don’t retain him.
Vegas has $51 million in cap space, and can create $13 million more by cutting quarterback Derek Carr. Head coach Jon Gruden didn’t select Carr, and may want to go his own direction entering Year 3 of his tenure with the Raiders. Getting rid of Carr and signing Brady at least gives the illusion that Vegas is trying to contend for a championship in their first year in their new city, while giving Gruden a couple years to find and groom ‘his’ quarterback.
For Brady, he can join the Silver and Black for a potential playoff run in a brand new NFL city, while racking up endorsements to go with what’s sure to be a massive contract from his new club.
Chances of signing Brady: 30 percent
2. Los Angeles Chargers
Philip Rivers’ reported upcoming departure in free agency and a lack of a long-term plan under center makes the Chargers an intriguing destination for Brady. LA is a desirable location with a roster that’s ready to contend.
With $48 million in available cap space, the Chargers have enough room to give Brady a hefty contract for a couple seasons to try and get LA over the hump and into the Super Bowl for the first time since 1995. Running back Austin Ekeler is a restricted free agent, while tight end Hunter Henry is set to hit the unrestricted market. If they both return to play with wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, they’d give Brady a formidable stable of weapons unlike any he’s had.
It would take some work to fit everyone under the salary cap, but Brady may be more willing to work with LA to play with that roster and finish out his career in Southern California.
Chances of signing Brady: 41 percent
1. New England Patriots
While it’s fun to look at other potential destinations for Brady, the thought of the Patriots letting him walk is almost inconceivable. Bill Belichick has a history of bucking sentimentality in order to improve his football team, but convincing owner Robert Kraft that letting Brady go is best for the ball club might be even too tall a task for Belichick.
New England is working with $45 million in cap space for 2020, which is enough to fit a big pay day for their quarterback. They’d need to get creative to generate more space for the rest of the offseason, but that’s what comes with paying a franchise quarterback.
There’s a train of thought that says the Patriots’ offensive roster was the problem last season, not Brady. It’s easy to see them re-signing him if that’s the justification Kraft and/or Belichick are working from. Or perhaps it may come down to sentimentality while Brady plays out the string. Either way, there are several paths to a reunion that make sense.
If it comes down to Brady not wanting to play for the Pats, there won’t be much they can do since other QB-needy teams will be willing to pay him. However, leaving the Patriots’ ecosystem with only a couple years left in his career is a daunting task that it’s difficult to envision even the great Tom Brady undertaking.
Chances of signing Brady: 93 percent
