History will be made in the NFL this week. Of the 32 quarterbacks projected to start, 20 of them are 26 or younger. That’s never happened before.
Some of it is due to injury and some of it is just because some younger guys are better than older guys. So, let’s take a look at those 20 young quarterbacks. We’re going to use a loose formula that looks at where they are now and where they’ll stand in three years.
Here is the ranking of those 20 quarterbacks, based on where they are now and where they’ll be in three years. We’ll rank them from worst to first.
20. Luke Falk, New York Jets
This is a desperation move, if ever there was one. Falk, 24, was on the practice squad at the start of the season. The only reason he got moved up to the 53-man roster was because starter Sam Darnold came down with mononucleosis. Then, Trevor Siemian stepped in and promptly suffered a severe ankle injury. So, Falk suddenly finds himself in the starting lineup. It won’t last. Darnold won’t be out much longer. In three years, Falk probably will be out of the league.
19. Kyle Allen, Carolina Panthers
Let’s be really honest here. Allen, 23, isn’t a short-term answer as he fills in for the injured Cam Newton. And he certainly is no long-term answer. This guy was undrafted last year. He did show a little bit of promise while making one start last year. But he is what he is. It speaks volumes that the Panthers are starting Allen ahead of third-round pick Will Grier. But that’s not a ringing endorsement of Allen. It’s more a signal that the Panthers don’t think Grier is ready. In three years, Allen will be a backup or maybe even out of the league.
18. Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears
Overall, the Bears are one of the league’s most talented teams. But they’ve got one major flaw. That’s Trubisky, 25. Although he flashed some promise in 2018, he’s taken a big step back this year. In fact, he’s playing so badly that he could drag the Bears down and cost them a playoff berth. Trubisky is not even close to a long-term answer as a starter. In three years, he’ll be a backup somewhere.
17. Mason Rudolph, Pittsburgh Steelers
Rudolph, 24, was a third-round pick in 2018, but didn’t see the field until starter Ben Roethlisberger injured his elbow last week. Rudolph stepped in and played fairly well. But it’s way to early for a verdict on Rudolph. The Steelers aren’t very good and it could be a long season for their young quarterback. Or maybe he can pull off a miracle and spark the Steelers. In that case, Rudolph could be the heir apparent to Roethlisberger, who has talked about retiring on many occasions. Or maybe, in three years, Rudolph just will be floating around the league as a backup.
16. Josh Rosen, Miami Dolphins
This guy has some terrible luck. Rosen, 22, was a first-round draft pick by Arizona last year. He floundered on a very bad team and the Cardinals gave up on him after they drafted Kyler Murray this year. Now, Rosen finds himself starting for a terrible Miami team after the Dolphins benched veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick. This is a no-win situation for Rosen. Dan Marino in his prime couldn’t win with the current Miami roster. In three years – probably less – Rosen will be out of the league.
15. Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There’s not another quarterback in the league in a more tenuous position than Winston, 25. The first overall pick in the 2015 draft, Winston is at the end of his rope in Tampa Bay. Despite his undeniable physical talent, Winston has been a disappointment in his first four seasons. That’s because he tries to do too much and forces way too many passes into coverage. Even with the arrival of coach Bruce Arians, a supposed quarterback guru, Winston has looked the same this year as ever. Unless, there is drastic improvement over the final 14 games, Winston will be done with the Bucs. He’s in the final year of his rookie contract. Keep in mind, the Bucs never have signed a quarterback they drafted to a second contract. Winston may get a chance to start elsewhere. But, in three years, he’ll be nothing more than a backup.
14. Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans
Mariota, 25, was the second overall choice in the 2015 draft after Tampa Bay took Jameis Winston. At times early on, it appeared as if the Titans wound up with the better quarterback. But, as time has played out, it’s been nothing more than a coin flip between what Mariota has done and what Winston has done. Mariota is not a franchise quarterback and will never take the Titans to a Super Bowl. In three years, he’ll be either a game-managing starter or a competent backup.
13. Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars
Minshew,23, has been the biggest surprise of the rookie class so far this season. When starter Nick Foles broke his left clavicle in the opener, the Jaguars had no choice but to hand things over to the sixth-round draft pick because he was the only other quarterback on the roster. Minshew has stepped in and played better than the Jaguars could have dreamed. He’s completed 73.9 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and just one interception. Foles won’t be out for the entire season. When he’s healthy, the Jaguars probably will hand the starting job back to Foles. What does that mean for Minshew? In the short term, he’ll go back to being a backup. Next year, he could compete with Foles for the starting job. Where does that leave him in three years. Almost certainly, he’ll be starting for the Jaguars or another team. Remember, there’s precedent for Minshew to achieve greatness. Tom Brady, perhaps the greatest quarterback ever, also was a sixth-round draft choice.
12. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
The first overall pick in this year’s draft, Murray, 22, hasn’t looked great in his first two starts, although he has thrown for over 300 yards in each game. But there’s no way to issue a verdict on him yet. He has the ability to pass and run but he’s playing for a bad team. If the Cardinals improve the talent around him, he could be an elite quarterback in three years. At worst, he’ll be a decent starter.
11. Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
Mayfield, 24, won the Heisman Trophy at Oklahoma in 2017, was the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2018 and threw for a rookie-record 27 touchdown passes last year. Does that mean he’s destined for greatness in Cleveland? Maybe and maybe not. The Browns did everything they could to build up his supporting cast this offseason, especially by trading for wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. Where will Mayfield be in three years? Probably an elite starter or something much less. Remember, he plays for Cleveland. Even though things look bright for the Browns at the moment, things have a way of changing very quickly (and not usually for the best in Cleveland).
10. Teddy Bridgewater, New Orleans Saints
It may seem hard to believe Bridgewater is only 26 because it seems like he’s been around for a long time. He’s a guy that got off to a good start in his first two seasons in Minnesota. But, then, he suffered a major injury and missed the entire 2016 season. He barely played the next two seasons. But Bridgewater is getting a unique opportunity to revive his career with the Saints. Starter Drew Brees is out for about six weeks with a thumb injury. That means Bridgewater is stepping into a great situation. He’ll be surrounded by receiver Michael Thomas and running back Alvin Kamara. Plus, he should benefit from the offensive genius of coach Sean Payton. Bridgewater has a chance to really shine. Brees is 40 and who knows how much longer he’ll play? If Bridgewater plays well, he could be Brees’ eventual replacement. Or he could do enough to earn a long-term starting job elsewhere.
9. Daniel Jones, New York Giants
It’s a major leap to put Jones, 22, this high on the list. After all, he’ll be starting the first game of his career Sunday against Tampa Bay as the Giants pulled the plug on veteran Eli Manning. But this was the plan from the moment the Giants drafted Jones at No. 6 overall. Will he step right in and light things up immediately? Probably not. The Giants simply aren’t a good team and running back Saquon Barkley is their only really good player. The Giants run the risk of ruining Jones, like the Texans ruined David Carr by expecting him to do too much with a bad team. But Barkley is good enough to take a lot of pressure off Jones. The Giants clearly are rebuilding. But, in three years, they might be able to surround Jones with enough talent to make him into a good quarterback.
8. Jacoby Brissett, Indianapolis Colts
Brissett, 26, got thrown into the fire when Andrew Luck decided to retire just before the season. Although Luck’s departure certainly wasn’t good news, the Colts knew his injury history and that’s why the felt it was wise to have a strong backup like Brissett. This isn’t the first time Brissett has been forced to play out of necessity. Back in 2017, Luck was injured and Brissett was forced to start 15 games. He didn’t fare badly. But he’s off to a much better start this year. Brissett has completed 69.1 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and one interception. Anything can happen over three years. But it’s likely the best-case scenario for Brissett is that he’ll be a solid starter in the long run. But he’s not special enough to become elite.
7. Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
At 24, Watson has tremendous potential. In his first full season as a starter last year, he threw for 4,165 yards 26 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. He also showed he could run the ball, rushing for 523 yards and five touchdowns. Houston has a solid team around him and Watson should only get better with more experience. Keep in mind that Houston coach Bill O’Brien won a lot of games with Matt McGloin at Penn State. McGloin wasn’t half as talented as Watson. Give Watson three more years and he and the Texans could be something special.
6. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
At 23, Allen has been the catalyst behind Buffalo’s surprising 2-0 start. Yeah, it’s only two games and things could sour because Allen had only a mediocre rookie year. But, in those two games, Allen has shown he can run and pass the football. He has the Bills looking like they can at least stay close to the New Englande Patriots in the AFC East. In three years, the story could be even better for Buffalo. Tom Brady and New England’s dynasty has to fade at some point, right? If Allen continues to improve, the Bills could become the division’s best team down the road.
5. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Jackson is only 22. In the second half of last season, he looked like a novelty – a quarterback who could run the ball like a running back. But Jackson did enough to convince the Ravens to unload veteran Joe Flacco and turn things over to the young signal caller. Through two games this season, Jackson has looked like more than a runner. He’s looked like an elite passer. Although those two games came against bad Miami and Arizona defenses and Jackson surely will face tougher defense, he’s looking like perhaps the most versatile quarterback in the league. In three years, he’ll be one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks.
4. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
At 26, Prescott already is one of the league’s best quarterbacks. He led Dallas to a winning record in each of his first three years and the Cowboys and Prescott are off to an impressive 2-0 start this year. But Prescott hasn’t even tapped his full potential. Other than Patrick Mahomes, he has more upside than any quarterback in the league. Plus, he’s got running back Ezekiel Elliott and receiver Amari Cooper. They’re going to make any quarterback look good. Prescott is in the final year of his contract and wants to be the highest-paid quarterback in the league. The Cowboys really have no choice other than to make this happen. Elliott is already is under contract for the long term. The Cowboys have to do the same with Prescott and Cooper. If they do, in three years, they could be looking like the dynasty they had in the 1990s when they had Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin.
3. Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
Goff, 26, got the Rams to the Super Bowl last year after throwing for 4,688 yards, 32 touchdowns and only 12 interceptions in the regular season. The Rams lost the Super Bowl, but there could be multiple titles in the future for Goff. He may not be the type of quarterback that can carry a team all by himself. But, if he’s playing for a good team – and the Rams are a good team – he can take you a long way. The Rams recently gave him a big contract extension, so he’s not going anywhere. In three years, he’ll still be the franchise quarterback and could already have a championship or two.
2. Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles
Wentz, 26, is on the verge of becoming a superstar. He could already have won a Super Bowl in the 2017 season, but he suffered an ACL injury and Nick Foles had to step in aond carry the Eagles to a title. But Foles is gone and this team clearly belongs to Wentz. He’s a very efficient passer and is off to a strong start this year. He’s benefitted tremendously from having a deep threat in DeSean Jackson. Although Jackson is expected to miss a game or two with an abdominal injury, he’ll be back and that will only make Wentz better. The Eagles have a solid nucleus. Wentz and coach Doug Pederson are on the same page offensively. In three years, Wentz could be one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
With the notable exceptions of Tom Brady and the injured Drew Brees, Mahomes might be the best quarterback in the league. He certainly is no worse than No. 3. More importantly, he’s 24 and coming off a season in which he was the full-time starter for the first time. In that season, he put up ridiculous numbers and was named MVP. He’s started this season in a similar manner. This guy is not a fluke, especially in coach Andy Reid’s offense. In three years, he’ll be the unquestioned best quarterback in the league. There will be multiple MVP awards and maybe some Super Bowls. When all is said and done, Mahomes could be the best quarterback ever. Heck, if you were going to start a team right now, Mahomes almost certainly would be the first pick.
Pat Yasinskas has covered the NFL since 1993. He has worked for The Tampa Tribune, The Charlotte Observer and ESPN.com and writes for numerous national magazines and websites. He also has served as a voter for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
