Tom Brady is still a pending free agent.
We’re three days away from the NFL’s legal tampering window, which opens at noon on Monday. And Brady is set to enter free agency for the first time in his career. Anything is possible for Brady. Anything is possible for the Patriots. At the moment, there is little indication of whether they’ll reunite. There’s also little indication they won’t.
While we’ve waited for Brady’s decision, we’ve considered every possible landing spot. And we’ve considered a lot of options at quarterback for the Patriots. Now is the final opportunity to consider every option. Bill Belichick is definitely doing just that. He’s weighing the draft, the trade market and the free agency options. So let’s do the same. Let’s look at all 27 quarterbacks that we can think of as options for New England.
We’ve ranked them in order of desirability, while weighing the cost of the quarterback in contract dollars and, when applicable, in trade costs.
Not impossible
27. Nick Mullens, 49ers: (Trade) He’s not a high-end starter, but perhaps offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels would get Mullens in the building to see if he could serve as a starter for a year or two while the Patriots prepare for Jarrett Stidham or another young quarterback to take over the job.
26. Jacob Eason, Washington: (Draft) He’s got the arm talent that some evaluators fawn over. But the Patriots aren’t usually among those talent evaluators. Eason is pegged as one of the five best quarterbacks in the draft, but he’s probably not going to be ready to start in his first year in the NFL, with his intellect and mechanics needing work, even with his physical abilities.
25. Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma: (Draft) Hurts’ draft stock hasn’t soared like many of the other quarterbacks in this draft. There’s a chance the Patriots could land him in the third round or later. And that might actually appeal to them as they consider a quarterback, because the Eason is getting first-round hype, which is probably undeserving. Even if Hurts does fall to the Patriots are a reasonable draft position, he probably won’t be ready to start in 2020.
24. Nick Foles, Jaguars: (Trade) The Jaguars seem to be toying with the idea of parting ways with Foles. Quarterback Gardner Minshew showed enough promise for Jacksonville to hand him the starting job. After a trade, Foles’ contract would shrink to about $16 million in 2020 with an out before the 2021 season. His deal really isn’t all that different than that of Andy Dalton’s, another quarterback who the media is connecting to the Patriots.
23. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dolphins: (Trade) Belichick has always had a thing for Fitzmagic, who is just 3-10 against the Patriots. But if the Dolphins decide to move on with Josh Rosen and/or a top draft pick, then Fitzpatrick would be available for a low cost. And while McDaniels probably wouldn’t be in love with the idea of Fitz, he’s also an NFL enigma. Who the heck knows which offensive coordinator secretly loves him?
22. Joe Flacco, Broncos: (Pending release) He seems an awful lot like a washed option. But he is an option, and it’s easy to image he’d like to try to revitalize his career in New England.
21. Case Keenum, QB, Redskins: (Free agency) Keenum had a catastrophic season in Washington, but perhaps that’s what might interest New England. McDaniels could study what made Keenum so successful in Minnesota when he went to the NFC Championship Game. Keenum’s contract would cost next to nothing, and he’d be a nice buy-low bridge quarterback for the Patriots.
Dark horses | Strong considerations | The favorites
Dark horses
20. Alex Smith, Redskins: (Trade) Washington has clearly moved on from Smith, with the team drafting quarterback Dwayne Haskins in the first round in 2019. What’s more, it’s possible the Redskins draft another quarterback at No. 2 overall in the 2020 draft. That would make Smith an easy trade target, and Washington may be eager to get him off the cap — so eager that it’d probably give a team a draft pick along with Smith to help a team stomach what might be a salary dump. He’s definitely the type of game-manager Belichick and McDaniels seem to respect, and he’d make $16 million in 2020.
19. Jordan Love, Utah State: (Draft) Love has tantalizing arm talent, but he just doesn’t strike me as the Patriots’ type. His accuracy issues are clear. His ability to read the field is also clear. Maybe the Patriots will be willing to take on a project, if the upside is pronounced.
18. Justin Herbert, Oregon: (Draft) The Patriots aren’t likely to trade into the top 12 picks for Herbert, who seems unlikely to fall past No. 12, where the Las Vegas Raiders pick. In the event he somehow slips in the draft, perhaps the Patriots would consider waiting for him to fall to 23rd overall. Or, if he’s available in the high teens of the draft, maybe New England would jump up and grab him. He has the upside to be a day-one starter.
17. Ryan Tannehill, Titans: (Free agency) Tannehill seems like a flavor-of-the-week quarterback. Every year, a signal-caller hits his stride at the end of a contract year. Every year, a team overpays for him. Belichick has gone on and on about how much he likes Tannehill, but that’s just how Belichick is. He always praises his opponents. I just don’t see the Patriots extending themselves financially for a player who got hot in the second half of the season. Tannehill presents too many risks when considering what other teams will be interested in paying him.
16. Blake Bortles, Rams: (Free agency) Bortles appeals for many of the same reasons as Keenum, though I’d argue there’s more potential with Bortles. He is still a physically gifted quarterback, who runs well. He has limitations, clearly. But he made just $1 million last season as the Rams backup. Perhaps his year under Sean McVay helped him take a step forward. Bortles would be a low-risk addition with some upside.
15. Cody Kessler, Patriots: (Rostered) Everyone is talking about Stidham, who spend the 2019 season as Tom Brady’s backup. But Kessler was on the roster, too. He studied the system, and took some reps with the scout team in practice. When given the opportunity to spend an offseason with the system, perhaps Kessler could surpass Stidham on the depth chart. Kessler, after all, was a third-round pick, like Stidham. And Kessler, a USC product, has starting experience in the NFL. Despite tough circumstances in Jacksonville and Cleveland, he has a 64.2 completion percentage for 2,215 yards, eight touchdowns and five interceptions in his career. There’s a lot to like.
Not impossible | Strong considerations | The favorites
Strong considerations
14. Jake Fromm Georgia: (Draft) He certainly fits the profile of Tom Brady, even if, of course, comparisons to the G.O.A.T. are unfair. Fromm’s mentality and IQ are ideal for the Patriots’ system, if they don’t feel inclined to change it much. His limitations, however, are physical. He doesn’t have the ideal arm strength. But if he falls to the Patriots in the third round, it’s easy to imagine them drafting him with hopes of developing him into a starter as early as his rookie year.
13. Teddy Bridgewater, Saints: (Free agency) Bridgewater’s return to relevancy has been an impressive testament to his determination. His knee injury could have ended his career, but as we head into free agency, he might find himself atop lists as the best free-agent option. He’s 27 and younger than Tannehill. He’s a game-manager, who is careful with the football. The Saints’ system got the most out of him. Can another team get that same level of production? The Patriots will definitely be interested in Bridgewater, but they likely won’t be able to afford him.
12. Andy Dalton, Bengals: (Trade) Dalton’s salary and trade costs aren’t exactly appealing. He’s been a media-favorite for the Patriots, but I don’t think they take an interest in him unless the Bengals release him. He’s due to make $16 million in 2019, a decent chunk of the salary cap. And how much better is Dalton than Bortles, Keenum, Fitzpatrick or Marcus Mariota, all of whom are likely to cost a fraction of that? Cincinnati would be wise to release Dalton. New England would be wise to sign him if he hits the open market.
11. Matthew Stafford, Lions: (Trade) This would be a stunner. Stafford, after all, had one of his best seasons in the NFL in 2019. But if Detroit decides to draft a quarterback at No. 3 overall, the Patriots would badly want Stafford. Even so, he’s a long shot, with the Lions likely to hold onto their franchise quarterback. Because of the cost on the trade market, Stafford probably isn’t worth bringing in.
10. Derek Carr, Raiders: (Trade) The Raiders are open to the idea of upgrading every position on their roster, according to general manager Mike Mayock. He said he was pleased with how Carr operated Jon Gruden’s system, but Mayock also said he wasn’t happy with the total points scored. If Las Vegas is looking to upgrade their quarterback position, you can bet Belichick will want to send picks to the Raiders in exchange for Carr.
9. Josh Rosen, Dolphins: (Trade) Some players just have bad luck in the NFL. Rosen spent his rookie season in one of the worst offenses in recent memory with the Arizona Cardinals, who then abandoned Rosen in favor of Kyler Murray. The Dolphins, who acquired Rosen, elected to start Fitzpatrick for most of the 2019 season. And now, Miami might just draft Tua Tagovailoa in the 2020 NFL Draft. So if that happened, the Patriots seem like the right team for Rosen to find stability and fight for a starting job.
Not impossible | Dark horses | The favorites
The favorites
8. Jarrett Stidham, Patriots: (Rostered) Brady’s backup could simply elevate himself to the starting role if the six-time Super Bowl champion leaves in free agency. Stidham arrived in New England with a long list of to-dos after struggling to develop at Auburn. And perhaps he’ll need more time before he can take over the offense. If he takes a major second-year leap, he could be the starter. At this point, he has a direct path, if Brady leaves.
7. Cam Newton, Panthers: (Trade) Carolina has made initial indications it is committed to Newton. But of course, that could just be a front. It could just be a smokescreen. When the draft rolls around, the Panthers could draft a new quarterback to begin their rebuild. In the event Newton ends up out of favor with Carolina, he could end up in favor with the Patriots. He’s a supreme talent, albeit with health concerns. If the Patriots traded for him, they get him on a one-year deal worth $18.6 million.
6. Philip Rivers, Chargers: (Free agency) He’s like Tom Brady Lite. He’s won a lot of games and put up some huge stats. But Rivers’ game is clearly on the decline, like Brady’s. Because Rivers doesn’t have the Super Bowl experience, he’ll be less desirable than Brady. But if the Patriots want someone like Brady, only cheaper, then Rivers ain’t a bad option.
5. Marcus Mariota, Titans: (Free agency) Mariota checks a lot of boxes. The Patriots don’t like spending big money on free agents, and Mariota shouldn’t cost much. The Patriots always admired how much Brady possessed the football and avoided turnovers, and Mariota has always done a nice job at that. New England often embraces the opportunity to revitalize a career; Belichick seems to prefer that to helping a player ride a high. So Mariota makes sense on paper after losing his starting job to Tannehill in 2019. He has health concerns, and he’s so risk-averse that he has limitations. But perhaps McDaniels’ offense would help justify Mariota’s status as a former second-overall pick.
4. Jameis Winston, Buccaneers: (Free agency) If Belichick is feeling like a challenge, he could try Winston. His 30 interceptions would be enough to deter any NFL team, but perhaps that will drive down his price. If the Patriots sign him to a short-term prove-it deal, Belichick and McDaniels could work with Winston to correct his mental and mechanical lapses. And maybe they’d finally help Winston be a good quarterback — and not just a good fantasy football quarterback.
3. Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers: (Trade) Brady would have to land in San Francisco, which doesn’t seem likely. But in the wild scenario where Brady joins the 49ers, Belichick would not hesitate to call GM John Lynch. That could land Garoppolo back in New England, where he started his career as a second-round pick in 2014.
2. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama: (Trade) As far as options go, Tagovailoa is a terrific one. His medicals seem to be clearing up after he ended his final college season with a hip injury. If not for Joe Burrow’s breakout season, Tagovailoa would be the No. 1 overall pick. The problem with Tagovailoa is that he might go No. 2 overall. If somehow he slips out of the top five picks, then the Patriots could move up to draft him, as unlikely as that sounds. But Tagovailoa is likely an enormously tempting prospect for the Patriots. An all-in trade for the Nick Saban product would be surprising — but fitting.
1. Tom Brady, QB, Patriots: (Free agency/Rostered) He has been their quarterback for 20 years. During that span, he has played 326 games in the postseason and regular season. Nine of those games were Super Bowls. Six of those Super Bowls ended in Patriots’ wins. Those wins came to a franchise that had zero titles prior to Brady’s arrival. Surely, Belichick will be tempted to work with another quarterback, particularly one in need of fixing, because a new quarterback might help the Belichick’s legacy. Success with someone not named Brady could help Belichick take more credit for the team’s wins over the last 20 years. But the truth is that the Patriots have no better option than Brady. So it will come down to whether he wants to play for them in 2020. He’ll likely make that decision over the next week.
