News on Wednesday morning that Rand Paul is dropping out of the race to be the Republican presidential nominee might well prompt a “so what?” – the Kentucky senator secured less than 5% of the vote in Iowa, and nationally Paul has the support of just 2% of Republicans, according to Real Clear Politics’ polling average.
The senator has said he will not make an endorsement in the primary cycle but will support the Republican nominee.
Paul’s supporters will no doubt be disappointed, but the long-term significance of his decision lies in what those voters (however small they are in number) decide to do next. In fact, figuring out American’s second choices is pretty important as other candidates will drop out in the months ahead. And it can help us to fact-check Donald Trump’s claims today that in Iowa, Ted Cruz benefited from rumors that Ben Carson was quitting the race – are Carson fans really potential Cruz supporters?
Unfortunately, though, many polls don’t ask about second-choice candidates. Or those that do ask don’t show who respondents listed as their first choice, making it difficult to understand where support is flowing from and to.
So instead, we have to assume that one of the best predictors of how people change their minds is demographics. We know, for example, that Carson supporters tend to be well educated and are more likely to be white evangelical protestants. Which would suggest that they are far more likely to swing toward Cruz than Trump. That’s because Cruz’s existing support base is also evangelical and is much more likely to have a college degree than Trump’s supporters. So Trump’s claims about Carson supporters making a break for Cruz following the rumors of Carson’s exit aren’t implausible.
Open-mindedness
A poll released on Wednesday from the Center for Public Opinion at the University of Massachusetts asked 502 Republican primary likely voters whether there was “a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else?”
These percentages should be treated with some caution because that number of respondents is pretty low, but it’s still interesting to note that Trump supporters were the least likely of any to say that they would even consider not voting for the New York businessman.
Republicans who support Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Carson and Paul were the most likely to say that they would consider voting for someone else. That’s not necessarily surprising though – those who support less popular candidates are aware that they’re simply more likely to need to think elsewhere should their first choice bite the dust.
Among Democrats, where the field has already narrowed to just two candidates, there’s little difference in decisiveness between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders’ supporters.
