How improbable was the San Francisco 49ers’ comeback victory against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday? Well, at two different points in the game, the Rams had at least a 90% chance to win.
And near the end of the fourth quarter, they had a near-100% chance of beating the 49ers but simply couldn’t hold on.
They led 17-0 in the first half but allowed the 49ers to claw back in and tie it at 17. After the Rams took a 24-17 lead in the fourth quarter, they seemed on their way to victory — especially after the 49ers punted with 1:57 left in the game.
According to Next Gen Stats, the 49ers had only a 0.4% win probability after punting it back to the Rams. They had all three timeouts so a defensive stand got them the ball back, but they still needed to drive the length of the field for a touchdown with under two minutes and no timeouts.
Somehow, they pulled it off and then won in overtime, 27-24.
The 49ers had just a 0.4% chance of winning after punting with 1:57 remaining in the game.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 10, 2022
In order to come back and win, the 49ers had to:
🔸 Force a three-and-out
🔸 Score a TD without any timeouts
🔸 Prevent the Rams from scoring in regulation
🔸 Win in OT#SFvsLAR | #FTTB pic.twitter.com/V0uL0Rxut5
Needless to say, the Rams will be kicking themselves after this one. They could’ve secured the No. 2 seed and a first-round matchup with the Saints. All they needed was a first down after the 49ers punted or a stop on San Francisco’s final drive of regulation.
They got neither and will now face the Cardinals next week.
