For a current barometer of national rugby morale it is hard to beat the quarter-final lineup of Europe’s flagship tournament. A year ago the last eight was an entirely Anglo-French affair, prompting fears the Pro12 teams were struggling to compete with their richer neighbours. Twelve months on, with two Irish and one Scottish side involved in the knockout stages and the Six Nations championship looming, the Celtic mood is suddenly very different.
Scorelines such as Glasgow’s 43-0 trouncing of Leicester at Welford Road have already had a ripple effect way beyond the east Midlands, with the Tigers last being rendered scoreless at home in 1978. If the Warriors’ resultant trip to face the defending champions Saracens feels a double-edged reward, playing away from home hardly bothered them on Saturday night. It will feel almost like a Calcutta Cup replay, except that the Scottish visitors will be less constrained by the dead weight of history.
Glasgow’s first appearance in the quarter-finals should certainly encourage the Scottish national team, not to mention their Pro12 cousins. Victory in north London would also mean a semi-final, against either Munster or Toulouse, being staged north of the border, with the final already pencilled in for Murrayfield on 13 May. This year all roads, both high and low, ultimately lead to Scotland and Gregor Townsend, the Warriors’ head coach, senses a rising confidence in his squad. “We’ll give it a good crack,” said Townsend. “Any team that plays us will know we are a real threat. In five of our six games we played really well and we got through a really tough group.”
Townsend, who will take charge of the national team this summer, also feels Scotland will benefit from Glasgow’s growing belief. “Why not? You’ve got players standing up and playing really well who are going to be involved with Scotland. They are doing well with Edinburgh and Glasgow. There’s no better time to do that than two weeks before the Six Nations starts.” His fly-half Finn Russell definitely fits into that category. “He loves playing as close to the gain line as possible,” said Townsend. “The fact we are getting quicker ball means he is a huge threat to the opposition defence.”
Saracens, however, will take some knocking over, assuming their own international players emerge from the Six Nations in one piece. If they can maintain their unbeaten run in the tournament, which was extended to 15 games after their exceptionally hard-fought 10-3 win over Toulon, they would face either Munster or Tolouse away since the pot-luck draw of previous seasons was replaced last year by a system rewarding those who have either performed well in the pool stages or won away in the quarters.
Under this format, Wasps will also host a semi-final on English soil against French opposition should they achieve the not-inconsiderable feat of beating Leinster in Dublin. Just as with Ireland against England at the Aviva Stadium a fortnight earlier it is a tantalising prospect, with both sides possessing plenty of attacking ammunition to set alongside enviable back-row options. Leinster might just fancy they have a possible edge in the set piece but Wasps have the pace out wide to make anyone wary of them. Despite early stout resistance from Zebre on Sunday they eventually ran in six tries, with Danny Cipriani contributing 16 points in a 41-27 bonus point win.
Their pathway to the final, nevertheless, remains strewn with giant-sized boulders, their controversial late pool defeat in Connacht having deprived them of a home quarter. Even if they can outwit Leinster, visibly prospering since the arrival of the former England coach Stuart Lancaster, they must also negotiate a way around one of the thunderous pair of Clermont or Toulon, whose quarter-final has the capacity to register on the Richter scale. Clermont – and France – will sadly be without the classy Wesley Fofana who has a ruptured achilles tendon but, as they demonstrated in scoring seven tries against Exeter on Saturday, the Michelin-backed men remain formidable in more than one language.
Then again, in this most emotional of seasons, who would bet against Munster, relentless since the tragic loss of their spiritual leader Anthony Foley? The Thomond Park faithful will now welcome Toulouse, who saw off a spirited second-half Connacht revival to clinch a 19-10 win in France and secure the final qualifying place. Munster, after a couple of blank seasons, are through to the quarter-finals for a record 16th time and will be further encouraged by denials from Rassie Erasmus’s lawyer that his client has agreed to discuss a potential role with the Springboks, currently experiencing lean times under the stewardship of Allister Coetzee.
In the Challenge Cup, Ospreys, Bath, Edinburgh and Gloucester have all booked home quarter-finals but there is no place in the last eight for Harlequins, who went down 27-17 to Stade Français, their 15th away defeat in their last 18 games in all competitions, after the kick-off in Paris had initially been delayed because of a frozen pitch.
Ireland, meanwhile, will confirm their Six Nations squad on Monday with doubts lingering over the fitness of Jonathan Sexton.
The fly-half injured a calf in his side’s draw against Castres on Friday, with his country’s opening fixture against Scotland at Murrayfield now less than a fortnight away.
Champions’ Cup quarter-finals: Clermont v Toulon; Munster v Toulouse; Saracens v Glasgow; Leinster v Wasps. Semi-finals: Clermont or Toulon v Leinster or Wasps; Saracens or Glasgow v Munster or Toulouse.
Challenge Cup quarter-final draw: Ospreys v Stade Français; Gloucester v Cardiff Blues; Edinburgh v La Rochelle; Bath v Brive. Semi-finals: Ospreys or Stade Français v Bath or Brive Edinburgh or La Rochelle v Gloucester or Cardiff Blues. Ties to be played between 30 March-2 April
