Donald Trump ordered a drone strike on Friday that killed the second most powerful man in Iran.
The decision to kill Qassem Suleimani was made without the approval of Congress and has been widely condemned by Democrats and international experts as a reckless act that will move the US closer to yet another conflict in the Middle East.
Why do it, then? With a general election less than a year away, some have speculated that there may be some political calculus at work. Trump’s popularity is surprisingly steady (even his impeachment in December 2019 barely dented his numbers) but is also consistently low. Trump is the least popular US president since at least Harry Truman.
But wars? Well, wars can be great for presidential popularity. In 1970, the political scientist John Mueller described a “rally round the flag effect” where presidents are able to reduce criticism of government policies by making dramatic decisions such as big diplomatic decisions or sudden military interventions. Mueller used three clear criteria to to define a “rally round the flag” decision:
The move is international.
It involves the United States and particularly the president directly.
It is “specific, dramatic and sharply focused”.
More recently, researchers have found just how effective this strategy can be. In a 2015 study, Daniel Stevens examined how the 2003 invasion of Iraq had given George W Bush a sudden boost in support.
Stevens adds that the effect depends on whether the politician heads a rightwing or leftwing government. For example, the decision to invade Iraq had a less desirable effect on the popularity of Tony Blair in Britain. Similarly, Lyndon B Johnson’s boost in presidential approval was just a couple of percentage points when the Vietnam war escalated.
The illustration above compares four US presidents who have presided over four recent US conflicts. For consistency of comparison, all data is taken from Gallup polling.
Of course, presidential popularity alone doesn’t always determine electoral outcomes. There’s evidence that in democracies, during wartime, voter turnout increases but doesn’t necessarily have a large partisan effect.
