After years of suspense, veteran actor and superstar Rajinikanth has finally announced that he is going to launch his own political party in January 2021, months ahead of the Assembly election in Tamil Nadu.
Just as in the movies, it looks like Mr. Rajinikanth had been waiting for a good script for his entry into politics. Timing is most important in politics. The time did seem right three years ago when he announced on December 31, 2017 that he would start a party in time and would contest all 234 constituencies in the State. That was soon after the charismatic and formidable leader of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), Jayalalithaa, had died, and when the leader of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), Karunanidhi, was ailing, thus creating a vacuum in the political landscape of the State. Mr. Rajinikanth said his politics would be “spiritual” and that “the time had come” for him to make a mark as “democracy had undergone severe decay”. He promised to provide a “clean, corruption-free government, a kind of politics that is devoid of influences of caste and religion”. That, he said, was his goal and wish.
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A script gathering dust
But three years went by and he continued to deliberate his next move, even as a change of an eon has taken place. The 2019 Lok Sabha election in Tamil Nadu was a game changer. It was the first major election in a long time that was not led by Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa. The United Progressive Alliance, led by the DMK, won 38 out of 39 seats. This clearly showed that Karunanidhi’s son, M.K. Stalin, had come into his own, emerging as a strong regional leader who had stopped the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) juggernaut from setting foot in Tamil Nadu. His victory seemed to prove that the Hindi-Hindutva BJP would not be kosher in Tamil Nadu.
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The anti-BJP feeling was also clear in the by-elections to 22 Assembly constituencies that were held around the same time. That was a neck and neck race between the DMK and the AIADMK. It showed that in an election in Tamil Nadu, the fight continued to be between the two well-structured, cadre-based Dravidian parties even after the demise of their respective leaders. The leaders had died, but their vote banks remained intact. Mr. Stalin had proved that he could pull in votes on his own, and AIADMK Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami regained lost ground surmounting some initial struggles.
In all this, Mr. Rajinikanth’s script for a grand entry gathered dust. He told the media in March this year that the onus was on the people to show a “resurgence”, like they did in 1967 when the DMK overthrew the Congress. It appeared that he had come to realise that it is not possible for him to win an election banking on his fan base that was not homogeneous in nature. They were unlike M.G. Ramachandran’s fan clubs who were bound by an ideology. He said he did not want to be Chief Minister, he wanted to limit the number of party posts, and bring the youth into politics. He wanted this message to be disseminated by his fans to every nook and corner of the State. When there is a resurgence, I will come, he said. He added there was no use in him being a “vote splitter”.
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But there is no sign of a “resurgence” even now. So, why did he decide to make an entry at this juncture? His timing is especially interesting as only at the end of October, Mr. Rajinikanth had said that his doctors had forbade him from entering the electoral fray given his health issues. How did things change so quickly, then?
Mr. Rajinikanth was emotional. “If I win, it is the people’s victory. If I fail, it is the people’s loss,” he said. He said that he would be happy to give his life for the people of Tamil Nadu. His followers who had said just sometime ago that the health of ‘Thalaivar’ (leader) was more important than power were jubilant that he had changed his mind.
A tough fight
Mr. Rajinikanth’s decision will certainly upset the calculations of the various political parties in the State. There does exist a section that wants a change from the two dominant parties. How will the contest be? Mr. Rajinikanth has never shied away from showing his admiration for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. He has often voiced support for the decisions of the BJP government at the Centre that were considered controversial in Tamil Nadu. He was a strong votary of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act of 2019, but hit out at the Centre after the riots in Delhi. He complimented the Central government for “deftly” handling the Kashmir issue. Leaders of the BJP, a party that is in an alliance with the AIADMK, have rushed forward to congratulate him. But the actor knows well that he will be a loser in Tamil Nadu if he aligns with the BJP.
It is going to be a tough fight in the State now. The fear of Mr. Rajinikanth’s entry splitting votes is indeed a worry for the AIADMK. Disgruntled members of the party may join him. But he may cut into the DMK’s votes even more, including its traditional minority vote share. Some political analysts feel that this is exactly what the BJP desires. While the national party is desperate to enter Tamil Nadu, it is more keen that the DMK should not win. All attempts of a third force in the State have ended in failure so far. Mr. Rajinikanth had said in March that he would not be the chief ministerial candidate. This may please the Tamil nationalists, but how will his fans respond to this?
A force to reckon with
For more than 50 years, Tamil Nadu has seen and acknowledged Dravidian politics that is based on the philosophy of social justice and equality. Surveys have shown that Tamil Nadu has been far ahead of other States in many aspects of governance. Tamil pride is something that is ingrained in the soul of the State. Regardless of the question of whether Mr. Rajinikanth fits into this scheme of things, it is amazing how he has become a force to reckon with in Tamil Nadu politics just by making an announcement. Why should I come as a mere vote splitter he had asked in March. An honest introspection, still valid.
Vaasanthi is a journalist and the author of ‘Amma: Jayalalithaa’s journey from movie star to political queen’, ‘The Lone Empress: A Portrait of Jayalalithaa’ and Karunanidhi: The Definitive Biography
