It all hangs on the rain. Steel grey skies are expected over Paris on Sunday morning and anyone with an interest in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe will want to know how much of the wet stuff is dropped on Longchamp as it prepares to stage the race for the first time in three years.
Committed fans of the hot favourite, Enable, may feel entirely sanguine about the prospect. The flashy filly has shown top-class form on fast ground and soft, after all. Let the others worry about ground conditions; she will be fine, whatever happens.
That kind of thinking is entirely understandable when talking about a horse who has not been beaten for 18 months, but it could be misguided just the same. What it overlooks is that a lot of rain will undermine the advantage handed to Enable by the draw for Europe’s most prestigious horse race.
When the ground is good or good to soft at Longchamp, the Arc winner usually comes from one of the six stalls closest to the inside rail. The extra distance the others must cover appears to be a real obstacle in those circumstances. But winners have sometimes come from wider stalls when the going has been soft or heavy, raising a suspicion that those on the inside meet the worst of the ground for the first quarter-mile if it is soggy.
Enable is to start from stall six. Her three main rivals, Waldgeist, Kew Gardens and Sea Of Class, will be imprisoned together in 13, 14 and 15. It is a perfect set-up for the favourite, who will begin the race surrounded by horses priced at 25-1 or bigger. But the 13mm of rain predicted for Paris by one respected forecaster could take that edge from her.
One way or another, Sea Of Class looks up against it. If there is only a modest amount of rain, she is probably drawn too wide in stall 15. If, on the other hand, Parisians are soaked during the morning run for croissants, Sea Of Class will not have the decent ground that she is generally thought to prefer.
Waldgeist is not good enough, on the strength of his narrow win over Coronet in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud this summer. He produced a career-best last month but that was against a couple of older stablemates.
Kew Gardens looks a much more potent threat. He is trying to do what Nijinsky could not in landing the Arc a month after the St Leger. But remarkable feats are the stock in trade of his trainer, Aidan O’Brien, who saddled the first three in this race in 2016.
An emphatic Doncaster success over Lah Ti Dar suggests Kew Gardens is still improving and he has won over this course and distance, in the Grand Prix de Paris. If brilliance is required, however, he will be found wanting. He is a grinder and a galloper, with a regrettable tendency to hang in the closing stages.
Uttoxeter 2.00 Third Estate 2.30 Zamparelli 3.00 Anytime Will Do 3.35 Vinegar Hill 4.05 Wenyerreadyfreddie 4.35 Ballyart 5.05 Polished Rock
Kelso 2.20 Rocky’s Treasure 2.50 Chookie Royale 3.25 Noah And The Ark 3.55 Aye Right 4.25 Vosnne Romanee (nap) 4.55 Bocasien Desbois(nb) 5.25 Boogie Life
As much as it pains me to back an even-money shot in a field of 19, Enable (3.05) appears to be the sensible call and she can become the eighth horse to win a second Arc. Bookmakers understate her chance in suggesting it is no better than a coin-toss.
Her reappearance at Kempton last month was not far short of a joke, given that she was never put under pressure by her only serious rival and was essentially gifted success. But that made it the ideal preparation, as a battle would have undermined her chance here.
John Gosden, her trainer, said on Saturday that he lacks the confidence with which he approached last year’s Arc, in view of her troubled season. But Kempton showed Enable has not lost her aptitude for racing and such a light campaign may be an advantage over her rivals who have been on the go since spring.
So I shall take the evens and trust that the ground will be bon souple rather than souple. For an additional interest, 40-1 is a fair each-way price about the well‑drawn Patascoy, runner-up in the French Derby. He is to be ridden for the first time by that wily old master, Olivier Peslier and should give him a thrill. But Peslier’s friend and rival Frankie Dettori is surely on the best horse in the race.
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