The equation has a familiar ring. The side batting last in this Test will be required to bat for more than four sessions to avoid defeat. So far in the series that has been way beyond the capacity of the batsmen. At Lord’s England won by 211 runs; at Trent Bridge South Africa prevailed by 340.
Will it be just as straightforward at The Oval? If the South African top order shows the resolve displayed by their tailenders there may just be a contest on Sunday and Monday rather than the processions witnessed in the first two Tests. So far this match has been played under the slate-grey skies that seamers love; the ball has deviated in the dampness; batting has been tricky. But the sun is due to make an appearance during the last two days, which should provide rare encouragement for the batsmen.
As it stands, England remain firmly in charge. They dismissed South Africa for 175, which represented quite a recovery for the tourists from the depths of 61 for seven on Friday. Then, with a bit of luck and one dropped catch, England were 74 for one when the rain arrived just before 3pm. The lead is already 252.
Yet there might be an element of frustration in the England camp. At the start of play South Africa needed 28 runs to avoid the possibility of following on and they gathered them all too easily. Modern sides tend to dislike enforcing the follow-on but there would have been a case for England doing so here. The bowlers still possessed fresh legs; more importantly those grey clouds were still hovering and any overs bowled on this soggy Saturday would be testing for batsmen.
Yet Temba Bavuma and Morne Morkel batted with spirit and good sense to see their team beyond 154, ensuring that Joe Root had no decision to make about that follow-on. Then Morkel edged into the reliable hands of Alastair Cook at first slip off Jimmy Anderson. Out came Vernon Philander, partly recovered from his stomach problems, but not for long; soon Bavuma became Toby Roland-Jones’ fifth wicket of the innings when he was caught by Jonny Bairstow for a tenacious 52.
It has been a terrific start for Roland-Jones, who has grasped his chance at the highest level with refreshing eagerness. So far his performance in this Test, including his little cameo with the bat, is an encouragement to the stalwarts out on the county circuit. Perhaps the gap between county and Test cricket is not so unbridgeable after all.
Roland-Jones could boast figures of five for 57, though he is not the type to do that. There are a few caveats, of course. It is rare for a fast bowler to make his Test debut at the age of 29. Since 1970 there have been six pace-bowling debutants for England over the age of 30. They are Peter Lever, who was exactly that when he started in 1970, Robin Jackman (35 in 1981), Neil Mallender (30 in 1992), Joey Benjamin (33 in 1994), Martin Saggers (31 in 2003) and Jon Lewis (30 in 2006).
Of these Lever might be the best model for Roland-Jones since he would go on to play 17 Tests for England, including important contributions to the famous Ashes victory in Australia under Ray Illingworth in the winter of 1970-71. Next on the list of appearances among this sextet is Jackman with four. For a fast bowler the window to excel is small for late starters.
Such gloomy observations need not detain nor deter Roland-Jones, who is suddenly a much more realistic candidate for the winter tour. But at this stage it would be more realistic to conclude that England have uncovered a very handy cricketer, impressively eager for the fray but not a world-beater.
It is still debatable whether this description also fits Keaton Jennings. Currently the thread that allows him to remain a Test cricketer is slender but it still exists thanks to one critical moment in England’s second innings.
Batting was tough against Morkel and Philander when England’s openers came out to extend the lead. An overthrow enabled Jennings to avoid his pair; an inside-edge to fine-leg gave him his first boundary. Then on six he prodded at a delivery from Philander just as he did in the first innings. The ball headed towards Dean Elgar at third slip and a mirror image of his dismissal on Thursday but this time there was more pace on the catch. Elgar could only parry and the ball sped from his body to the boundary. It is reasonable to presume that, if Elgar had held that catch, the selectors would have dropped Jennings for the Old Trafford Test.
There was another edged boundary from Jennings but then the ball kept finding the middle of his bat. Undeterred by the departure of Alastair Cook, who was bowled by a trimmer from Morkel, Jennings began to find his touch. There were three sweet fours plus a successful review when he was mistakenly given out caught behind. Suddenly there was light ahead on the gloomiest of days and he ended unbeaten on 34, his Test career still afloat.
So, too, is that of Tom Westley, who confirmed the fine impression of his first innings. Westley does not appear to like running much. So far in his Test career he has scored 53 runs, 44 in boundaries. He resumes on Sundaythis morning on 28 not out, runs stylishly gleaned, and that seems a good enough reason to get to The Oval on time.
