Forecasts of rain are prompting joy among firefighters.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, rain is expected in and around Canberra from Wednesday, perhaps before.
Already, the New South Wales Rural Fire Service is rejoicing. "If this rainfall forecast comes to fruition then this will be all of our Christmas, birthday, engagement, anniversary, wedding and graduation presents rolled into one," a statement said.
But added, "Fingers crossed."
If this @BOM_NSW rainfall forecast comes to fruition then this will be all of our Christmas, birthday, engagement, anniversary, wedding and graduation presents rolled into one. Fingers crossed. #NSWRFS#nswfirespic.twitter.com/R9VfD0bqu2
— NSW RFS (@NSWRFS) January 12, 2020
But experts are cautious. A forecaster at the bureau told The Canberra Times that the rain was likely to be sporadic in the form of showers and some thunderstorms and not a prolonged downpour that would drench the whole of the fire areas.
According to the bureau, the strongest chances of rain on Canberra are from Thursday with, at the maximum, falls of up to 40 millimetres over the four days.
But the forecaster cautioned that rain could be patchy. It could fall just outside the city and not in the city itself or the other way round.
Rain is forecast for pockets of the central and northern coasts on Monday, with thunderstorms and showers forecast for most of NSW on Thursday when up to 25 millimetres is expected to fall on parts of the South Coast.
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On Sunday, ACT Emergency Services Agency Commissioner Georgeina Whelan was less euphoric than the NSW RFS. She welcomed the prospect of rain but didn't think there would be enough for long enough to douse the fires.
Rain is not an unmitigated good for fire-fighters, according to Dr Thomas Duff of the University of Melbourne.
"Rain can dampen the fires and give the firefighters an opportunity to build containment lines but it can also bring issues on its own," he said.
Dr Duff, who is one of Australia's leading experts on fires, said heavy rain made it hard for heavy vehicles like diggers to operate. They could turn over and slide.
Burnt soil could become hard and less able to absorb water so heavy rain flowed swiftly, sometimes carrying rocks and debris that could damage roads and bridges.
Back-burning became more difficult because it was harder to distinguish the boundary between burnt territory and unburnt if everything was muddy.
He also said it would need to be prolonged and heavy to completely remove the risk of fires reigniting because they were over such a wide area of forest, which contained heavy wood like logs and dead trees.
"It's going to take a large amount of rain over a prolonged period to guarantee that we won't have further issues with these fires later in the season," he said.
In Canberra and surrounding New South Wales, the fire season usually lasted until and even beyond the end of February.
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