Solid rainfall on Tuesday provided a much-needed boost to the Hunter's winter rain gauges.
While the region is not in drought, seasonal rainfall has been below average in many areas as a result of neutral climate drivers.
Scone, which received 17mm between midnight and 9am on Tuesday morning, is still short of its August average 23.9mm.
Almost all of the Lower Hunter has recorded below average rainfall since May.
Cessnock recorded 15mm in May compared to its average of 37.9mm.
Nobbys recorded 66mm in June compared to an average of 118mm. Blacksmiths recorded 87mm in June compared to the average of 147mm.
Low rainfall has also seen a slight drop in the region's dam levels that were virtually full at the start of the year.
Bureau of Meteorology climatologist Dr Lynette Bettio said the La Nina climate driver, which was responsible for breaking the drought in early 2020, is moving back to a neutral position.
"Our climate drivers are currently neutral, meaning we're not getting El Nino or La Nina bringing particularly dry nor particularly wet conditions," she said.
"Therefore, other factors, like warm waters off Australia's north coast, could have a much bigger effect than might happen in a usual winter.
The national mean temperature for July was 1.77 degrees warmer than the 1961-1990 average for Australia as a whole, making it the fourth-warmest July on record. It was amongst the three warmest Julys on record for South Australia, Western Australia and the Northern Territory, and the seventh-warmest on record for Queensland.
But Bureau of Meteorology data also shows the Hunter's winter temperatures, while cold by comparison to recent years, are mostly in-line with long term winter averages.
"In a lot of ways the weather patterns we've seen in the last few weeks have been quite typical weather patterns historically," Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist Blair Trewin said.
"The last few years we have had a lot of winters where the subtropical high has been stronger and further south than its usual winter position, and that's pushed a lot of cold fronts south of the Australian continent."
"The last 10 to 15 years we have had a lot of warm winters, particularly daytime temperatures," Dr Trewin said.
The emergence of a weak La Nina-like pattern is likely to bring above average in most parts of Australia during spring.
Maximum temperatures are also likely to be above average.
