A severe weather warning has been issued for nearly the whole of Victoria, and the Snowy Mountains ski season could be thrown into chaos as wild weather sweeps across south-east Australia.
Warm temperatures and up to 120km/h winds could wipe out snowfall and put the brakes on winter holidaymakers in New South Wales.
At the same time, rain will fall across Victoria, but has been downgraded from potential flash flooding that worried forecasters on Tuesday.
Visitors to the NSW skifields may have to contend with poor conditions.
Jordan Notora, a forecaster at the Bureau of Meteorology, said he was not expecting any natural snowfall in the region over the weekend.
“It looks as though we have not got any significant snow in the coming days. All precipitation over the alpine areas is mostly going to be showers and rain.”
“We are going to see some shower activity over the alpine region, and that will be decreasing day by day. By the weekend we are going to see a high pressure system move over, and no expectation of any additional significant snow at this stage.”
Warmer-than-average temperatures would also not help those looking for snow.
“Statewide, we are well above the average for this time of year,” Notora said. “In the alpine regions we are nearly 4C above average. Going into the next few days we are seeing above-average temperatures by a couple of degrees or so.
“And in the days coming through over the weekend we are not seeing any trend to a cooler temperature for those peaks. It is generally on or above average for the next seven days.”
However, the bureau can’t predict the overall snow level, as individual resorts can create artificial snow.
On Wednesday, the Thredbo weather outlook predicted a 20% chance of snow on Friday and Saturday for peaks above 1,800m, but zero chance for below 1,000m on Friday, and zero chance for below 1,400m on Saturday.
“There are still early season conditions mostly on the lower trails,” it said.
In Victoria, heavy rain is expected across the whole state, with wind gusts of up to 100km/h in some areas.
The warning will affect the entire state, including Melbourne, Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Warrnambool, Wodonga and Wangaratta, among others.
Steven McGibbony, duty forecaster at the bureau, said the heaviest rainfall was in the Wimmera area, with 30mm recorded overnight at Nhill aerodrome.
But a previous warning for flash flooding was downgraded.
“The thunderstorm activity eased off and it is more a general broad area of rain across the state,” McGibbony said. “Since then the rainband has extended further east, out over the Melbourne area. In Melbourne itself we’ve had not a lot of rain since 9am, but we’re just starting to see the rain falling into the Melbourne area now.”
Strong winds have also swept the state, with a high of 90km/h recorded at Melbourne airport, and the potential for 120km/h gusts in the alpine regions.
“We still have the warning out for damaging winds,” McGibbony said. “That is mainly affecting elevated areas of the state – but it does cover most of the entire state.”
Overall, Victoria is predicted to experience 10-20mm of rain, with that rising to 35-40mm in the north-east.
McGibbony said it would ease by the evening.
“The cold front will clear the state this evening and overnight. Tomorrow another cold front is moving through the Bass Strait – we’re looking at showers falling across southern and mountain areas – but rainfall totals will be just about 5mm.”
