The number of those who used railways and subways in the Tokyo metropolitan area, which had been declining to apparently slow the spread of coronavirus infections, turned upward last week, it was learned recently.
The upward turn seems to reflect people's weariness over a "self-restraint" mood. As a danger of overshoot, or an explosion of infections, has grown in Tokyo, experts are calling anew for people to share the sense of alarm.
According to the Transportation Bureau of the Tokyo metropolitan government, during the weekday period of March 16-18, the average number of those who used subways operated by the bureau increased from the corresponding weekdays of a week earlier by 0.54 percentage points to 1.17 percentage points. This occurred during three time zones: the time before the morning rush hour (from 6:30 to 7:30 a.m.); during the morning rush hour (from 7:30 to 9:30 a.m.); and the time after the morning rush hour (from 9:30 to 10:30 a.m.).
The subways run by the Tokyo government, or Toei subways in short, had seen the number of the passengers during rush hours continue to decline since February. The upturn last weekend has marked the first of its kind ever posted since then. "Such trends as teleworking and staggered working hours had been advancing, but limitations in such a workstyle seem to have emerged," an official of the metropolitan government said, expressing a sense of alarm.
The number of people who would go out to popular places for outings or shopping on the weekend seems to have started rising.
According to JR East, during the Feb. 28-March 1 period, which included a weekend, the number of those who used Tokyo Station totaled only 55 percent of what it was during the corresponding period last year, while at Shinjuku Station it was 70 percent and Ueno Station 61 percent. The year-on-year declines at these three stations during the following weekend of March 7 and 8 were further down: at Tokyo Station 42 percent of last year, at Shinjuku 56 percent and at Ueno 46 percent.
But during the recent weekend of March 21 and 22, which turned out to constitute three consecutive holidays with March 20 being the Vernal Equinox Day, the number of those who used Tokyo Station rose to 48 percent of what it was last year, those using Shinjuku Station was at 65 percent and those who used Ueno Station reached 59 percent, all showing increases from the weekend before last.
As these year-on-year changes were calculated on the basis of the figures of the corresponding periods last year, simple comparisons cannot be made. But a JR East official said, "It is highly likely that the number of those who used these railway stations have increased due to such factors as their outings for cherry blossom viewing."
A crowded train falls under at least two of the three conditions which are likely to trigger a "cluster" or a small group of infections: "ill-ventilated, confined spaces" and "gatherings of people."
Hiroyuki Kunishima, a professor at St. Marianna University School of Medicine who is knowledgeable about infectious diseases, said: "As the number of people infected is increasing sharply in Tokyo, the risk of people getting infected on full-packed trains and at events with many people gathering has risen markedly than earlier. It may be that people cannot help feeling tired of taking self-restraining actions, but they should not relax at all."
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