"Black Panther" for best dramatic motion picture? It could happen at "The 76th Golden Globe Awards" on Sunday.
As always, the loosey-goosey Golden Globes ceremony will serve as a precursor to the more serious Oscars, but this year seems particularly noteworthy. With "Black Panther," "BlacKkKlansman" and "If Beale Street Could Talk" in the running for the top award, the Globes seem to be issuing a challenge to the Oscars: We're not so white _ how about you? What's more, "Black Panther" is exactly the kind of populist pick the Oscars have long pooh-poohed, an attitude that has begun to seem elitist and out of touch. Earlier this year, the Academy tried to placate moviegoers by suggesting a "best popular movie" award _ only to be viciously pelted by social-media tomatoes. (The idea has been shelved.) By contrast, the Globes are looking pretty savvy this year.
In other Globes categories, expect the usual mix of obvious-to-baffling choices. Here's how things look likely to shake out:
Best Motion Picture _ Drama
"Black Panther"
"BlacKkKlansman"
"Bohemian Rhapsody"
"If Beale Street Could Talk"
"A Star Is Born"
WHO SHOULD WIN: "Black Panther." Rare is the movie that breaks a cultural barrier, becomes a commercial smash and _ all that aside _ qualifies as truly top-quality.
WHO WILL WIN: "A Star Is Born." With its Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga star-power and sacred sense of Hollywood history (Gaynor, Garland and Streisand graced previous versions), this movie is as Golden Globey as they come.
Best performance by an actress in a motion picture _ drama
Glenn Close, "The Wife"
Lady Gaga, "A Star Is Born"
Nicole Kidman, "Destroyer"
Melissa McCarthy, "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
Rosamund Pike, "A Private War"
WHO SHOULD WIN: McCarthy. Her transformation into the real-life literary forger Lee Israel is subtle and unexpectedly moving.
WHO WILL WIN: Lady Gaga. Playing a pop star may not be a stretch, but Gaga's best moments come in the pre-fame phase of her character _ a shy, openhearted California girl named Ally.
Best performance by an actor in a motion picture _ drama
Bradley Cooper, "A Star Is Born"
Willem Dafoe, "At Eternity's Gate"
Lucas Hedges, "Boy Erased"
Rami Malek, "Bohemian Rhapsody"
John David Washington, "BlacKkKlansman"
WHO SHOULD WIN: Cooper. His washed-up singer Jackson Maine strikes the perfect balance between deep-reaching performance and screen-star charisma.
WHO WILL WIN: Cooper.
Best motion picture _ musical or comedy
"Crazy Rich Asians"
"The Favourite"
"Green Book"
"Mary Poppins Returns"
"Vice"
WHO SHOULD WIN: "The Favourite." This story of 18th-century court intrigue seems like a whole new kind of period piece: Wickedly funny, sexually perverse and slightly surreal. Critical buzz has been feverishly high.
WHO WILL WIN: "The Favourite."
Best performance by an actress in a
motion picture _ musical or comedy
Emily Blunt, "Mary Poppins Returns"
Olivia Colman, "The Favourite"
Elsie Fisher, "Eighth Grade"
Charlize Theron, "Tully"
Constance Wu, "Crazy Rich Asians"
WHO SHOULD WIN: Theron. She gained 50 pounds _ and bared much of it on screen _ to play an exhausted, three-time mother in this overlooked psychological drama.
WHO WILL WIN: Colman. Her Queen Anne is one complicated piece of work, a physically disabled monarch whose emotional neediness hides a ruthless, Machiavellian core.
Best performance by an actor in a motion picture _ musical or comedy
Christian Bale, "Vice"
Lin-Manuel Miranda, "Mary Poppins Returns"
Viggo Mortensen, "Green Book"
Robert Redford, "The Old Man & The Gun"
John C. Reilly, "Stan & Ollie"
WHO SHOULD WIN: Mortensen. He brings pathos and humor to the real-life figure of a bouncer (Tony "Lip" Vallelonga) who ends up working for a black musician (Mahershala Ali) in 1962.
WHO WILL WIN: Mortensen.
Best motion picture _ animated
"Incredibles 2"
"Isle Of Dogs"
"Ralph Breaks the Internet"
"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse"
WHO SHOULD WIN: "Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse." The ink-and-paint-style visuals, with multi-panel screens and spelled-out sound effects, are a blast of fresh creative energy in a Pixar-dominated era.
WHO WILL WIN: "Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse."
Best performance by an actress in a supporting role in any motion picture
Amy Adams, "Vice"
Claire Foy, "First Man"
Regina King, "If Beale Street Could Talk"
Emma Stone, "The Favourite"
Rachel Weisz, "The Favourite"
WHO SHOULD WIN: Weisz. Her comedic timing, not utilized nearly enough, gets to shine here as a haughty aristocrat who meets her match in an ambitious chambermaid (Stone, her competitor in this category).
WHO WILL WIN: Adams. Despite polarizing reviews for "Vice," critics generally agreed on Adams' empathetic performance as Lynne Cheney, wife of former veep Dick Cheney.
Best performance by an actor in a supporting role in any motion picture
Mahershala Ali, "Green Book"
Timothee Chalamet, "Beautiful Boy"
Adam Driver, "BlacKkKlansman"
Richard E. Grant, "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
Sam Rockwell, "Vice"
WHO SHOULD WIN: Grant. A cult favorite since "Withnail & I" (1987), Grant delivers his second performance of a lifetime as a bargain-basement libertine. He and McCarthy make a terrific tragicomic duo in this movie.
WHO WILL WIN: Grant.
Best director _ motion picture
Bradley Cooper, "A Star Is Born"
Alfonso Cuaron, "Roma"
Peter Farrelly, "Green Book"
Spike Lee, "BlacKkKlansman"
Adam McKay, "Vice"
WHO SHOULD WIN: Cuaron. His "Roma" is so beautiful it's difficult to imagine anyone else accepting this award _ even Cooper, who is probably a close second.
WHO WILL WIN: Cuaron.
Best original song _ motion picture
"All The Stars," from "Black Panther"
"Girl In The Movies," from "Dumplin' "
"Requiem For 'A Private War,"" from "A Private War"
"Revelation," from "Boy Erased"
"Shallow," from "A Star Is Born"
WHO SHOULD WIN: "Shallow." Lady Gaga's original composition (with Mark Ronson and others) is the backdrop to the movie's most riveting moment _ the "trust me" scene. It's a great example of a song tailor-made for a film.
WHO WILL WIN: "Shallow."
