Is Rafael Nadal finished at the highest level – or at least at Wimbledon? It would be a brave or foolish critic to retire a matador – because that is what he has been for more than a decade, the consummate Spanish executioner. Yet after a miserable European run on his favoured clay, the evidence is mounting at an alarming rate.
The juxtaposition of two matches at the All England Club on the fourth day of the 2015 championships could hardly have been more pointed.
Shortly after the 33-year-old Roger Federer had cruised through to the third round of a tournament he has won seven times, exciting his followers on Centre Court with an exquisite trick shot that went viral on his way to dismissing the American Sam Querrey, the 29-year-old Nadal, the Swiss’s personal tormentor since he beat him in Miami 11 years ago for the first of 23 times in 33 matches, looked spent and vulnerable on the same court as he tumbled out against an opponent outside the top 100.
It was the fourth such calamity in four years. Dustin Brown, the 30-year-old Jamaican/German qualifier who used to travel from tournament to tournament in a van, did not play like someone ranked 102 in the world, trusting his high-risk serve-and-volley game to beat Nadal in four sets and adding his name to those of Lukas Rosol, Steve Darcis and Nick Kyrgios as the Mallorcan’s early conquerors here.
Except how can such a result be a surprise any more? Surely, say Nadal’s critics, this signals at least the beginning of a terminal decline – certainly on grass – for a player who reached the final here five years in a row.
Consider Nadal’s recent history at Wimbledon. In 2008 he won what many respected observers regard as the greatest final of all time, beating Federer in five sets. He missed 2009 through injury but the following year he won his second title, beating Tomas Berdych in straight sets. In 2011 he again reached the final, losing in four sets to Novak Djokovic in the Serb’s most extraordinary year so far – although this one may rival it.
Then it started to go horribly wrong for Nadal. In 2012 Rosol, ranked 100 in the world, played the match of his life to put him out in the second round; in 2013 Steve Darcis (135) beating him in the first round; and last year Nick Kyrgios – then ranked 144 but who may even win the title this year – became the first of two teenagers outside the top 100 to beat Nadal in the same year – ahead of Borna Coric – with a virtuoso performance that left the then world No1 demoralised.
So, what is going wrong? Nadal missed six months of competition last year with a wrist injury and an appendix operation towards the end of the season. Since then, he has struggled to find his sharpness, and he hit a career low at Roland Garros last month, losing to Djokovic in the quarter-finals of a slam he had won nine times.
There was no shame in losing to Djokovic – but the point not lost on Nadal is it was a match in which he was competitive for an hour and a half before fading. His resilience and strength – the two qualities he brings to every match – let him down on his favourite surface. And he had no fitness issues. Djokovic, as Nadal admitted, was simply the much better player on the day.
Yet his annual torture at Wimbledon must surely pile up on him, mentally.
Coming here next summer will not be a pleasant experience unless he turns his career around. He has fallen to No10 in the world for the first time since 2005. It is looking likely he will go through 2015 without winning a major. And the golf courses of his beloved Mallorca are always a haven.
He admits it is not looking good. But Nadal has always been honest and humble. He will not deny the hard facts. If he is to rescue his career, he must start winning big tournaments again.
The clay and grass campaigns are over for him. The hard courts of America and the US Open represent his last chance this year to make a statement. On current form, it is unlikely he will win at Flushing Meadows – especially if Djokovic confirms his status as world No1 by retaining his Wimbledon title.
Yet there is something about him that screams: don’t write me off just yet. He may not surpass Federer’s 17 majors. He may not add to the 14 he has won. But he will not leave quietly.
