Under fire from Jamie Carragher as usual, Gary Neville has stuck to his guns over his pre-season prediction that Everton will be this season’s Premier League overachievers.
But is the former Manchester United player right to back the Blues for a much-improved second half of the season?
Everton should have been at the halfway point of their 2021/22 fixtures by now but coronavirus-induced postponements to the home game with Leicester City and trip to Burnley leaves them in 15tg position from 17 matches with 19 points.
Speaking on Sky Sports’ Monday Night Football, eight-time Premier League winner Neville was revisiting his tips from back in August but rejected suggestions that his choice of Everton was now wide of the mark.
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He said: “Overachievers, I still think Everton will finish strongly.”
Carragher asked: “Why?”
Neville added: “We’re only halfway through. They have had a lot of injuries. They have had Calvert-Lewin out, they have had Richarlison out, they have had Doucoure out at times, so they would be alright.”
It’s a sentiment echoed by Blues boss Rafa Benitez, who throughout the current campaign has maintained that his teams tend to do better as seasons progress.
Earlier this month, he said: “I am certain we will improve in the second part of the season.”
Those words followed on from a similar claim in November when the 61-year-old declared: “I have massive confidence in the team for the second half of the season.”
Can Everton back up both Neville and Benitez’s bullishness? Do the Spaniard’s teams actually improve in the second half of campaigns?
Benitez’s first full season as a senior coach was with Extremadura in 1997/98 when he steered them to runners-up spot in LaLiga2 and promotion to Spain’s top flight.
In the first half of the campaign, his side won 10 drew 7 lost 4, accruing 37 points, but in the second half this improved to won 13, drew 3 lost 5 for a 42-point total.
Although they found it much harder in La Liga the following season, ultimately being relegated after a play-off, the pattern of improvement was continued.
In the first half, Extremadura won 4 drew 4 lost 11, collecting 16 points, but in the second half, won 5 drew 8 lost 6, to pick up 23 points.
Benitez then departed and returned to LaLiga2 for a single-season stint with Tenerife in 2000/01.
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Although fairly consistent across the campaign, the first half of this season was slightly better as the Canary Islands side won 11 drew 5 lost 5, picking up 38 points, before they won 10 drew 6 lost 5, collecting 36 points in the second half.
Despite finishing third and pipping Atletico Madrid for promotion, Benitez would depart for Valencia.
During his first season at the Mestalla, Benitez delivered the club’s first title since 1971 and this was achieved through an improved showing in the second half of the campaign.
The first half record read won 8 drew 9 lost 2 for 33 points, but the second half was won 13 drew 3 lost 3 for 42 points.
Valencia dropped to fifth in Benitez’s second season and this was a campaign that tailed off.
In the first half they won 10 drew 5 lost 4 for 35 points, but in the second half won 7 drew 4 lost 8 for 25 points.
Although they then captured a second title in three seasons in 2003/04, this was done on the back of a strong start to the campaign.
In the first half they won 13 drew 4 lost 2 to pick up 43 points, but in the second half won 10 drew 4 lost 5 for 34 points.
Benitez’s first post in England, with Everton’s neighbours Liverpool, did not produce an improved second half of a season until his fourth year in charge.
In 2004/05, when the Reds finished fifth, one place below the Blues, they won 9 drew 4 lost 6 in the first half for 31 points before they won 8 drew 3 lost 8 in the second half for 27 points.
Curiously, in back-to-back campaigns in 2005/06 and 2006/07 at Anfield, Benitez had identical points tallies for both the first and second halves of the season, finishing third on both occasions.
In 2006/06, Liverpool’s record read won 12 drew 5 lost 2 to pick up 41 points for the first half and won 13 drew 2 lost 4 for 41 points in the second half.
Then in 2006/07, there was perfect symmetry with records of won 10 drew 4 lost 5 for 34 points in both the first and second half of the season.
By 2007/08, improving his points tally but finishing fourth, Benitez finally enjoyed a marginally better second half of the season with the Reds.
In the first half they won 10 drew 7 lost 2 for 37 points before a second half that saw them win 11 drew 6 lost 2 for 39 points.
This pattern was repeated on an upwards curve in 2008/09 as Liverpool were runners-up to Manchester United.
In the first half they won 12 drew 6 lost 1 for 42 points before in the second half they won 13 drew 5 lost 1 for 44 points.
For Benitez’s sixth and final season at Anfield, he had his largest second-half improvement but his lowest finishing position of seventh.
In the first half he won 9 drew 3 lost 11 for 30 points and then in the second half won 9 drew 6 lost 4 for 33 points.
After being sacked after half a season with Internazionale in 2010/11 and then a spell at Chelsea as interim boss in 2012/13, Benitez’s next full campaign was with Napoli in 2013/14.
Both of his complete Serie A seasons though produced higher points tallies in the first half.
Finishing third in 2013/14, the first half saw Benitez’s team open with a record of won 13 drew 3 lost 3 for 42 points followed by won 10 drew 6 lost 3 for 36 points.
The following year they dropped to fifth having a first half that read won 9 drew 6 lost 4 for 33 points and a second half of won 9 drew 3 lost 7 for 30 points.
Another half-season spell at Real Madrid followed at the start of 2015/16, but then unable to save Newcastle United from relegation in 2016, Benitez’s three full campaigns at St James’ Park produced contrasting fortunes.
Steering the Magpies to the top of the Championship in 2016/17, the first half was better as Newcastle won 16 drew 1 lost 6 for 49 points before they won 13 drew 6 lost 4 for 45 points in the second half.
It’s true though that Benitez’s last two seasons in the Premier League with the North East outfit, finishing 10th and 13th, both produced considerable upturns after slow starts.
In 2017/18, the first half saw them on won 5 drew 3 lost 11 for 18 points before a second half of won 7 drew 5 lost 7 for 26 points.
Then 2018/19 started with won 4 drew 5 lost 10 for 17 points before Newcastle rallied to finish with won 8 drew 4 lost 7 for 28 points in the second half.
Across Benitez’s overall career record of 17 full seasons in European football, there have been seven seasons in which his teams accumulated more points in the first half, eight that produced more in the second half and two that finished level.
