Paul Nicholls got a Valentine’s card from the official handicapper on Tuesday when his Vicente was given an attractive low weight for the Grand National. Nicholls has a team of seven entered, knowing that victory in the £1m race on 8 April would give him an unbeatable lead in the trainers’ championship and this may be within his grasp through Vicente, who is surely too big at the 33-1 on offer with bookmakers.
It was Vicente who kept Nicholls alive in the title race last year, his 14-1 surprise success in the Scottish Grand National putting the trainer back in front of Willie Mullins. “Since then I’ve only had one race in mind for this horse,” Nicholls said on Tuesday.
A casual glance at Vicente’s form might lead one to imagine that the eight-year-old had lost his form, following failures in the Hennessy, the Welsh National and the Great Yorkshire Chase.
But those races were unlikely to suit a horse needing a marathon trip on spring ground, which he will hope to get at Aintree.
A consequence of those defeats is that, having gone up the weights after his Ayr success, Vicente has now come back down and his new rating puts him only 1lb higher on the scale than he was when scoring in Scotland.
That translates to a weight of 10st 5lb as things stand, which will be less than nearly all his 39 rivals and means the most classy horses in the race will be shouldering a stone more than him.
Thanks to the softening of the fences and also to the improvement in quality of the runners, the Grand National field sustains a strong pace in most years, making stamina the most important quality in any contender.
Having been robust enough at the age of seven to win over four miles at Ayr, Vicente could probably cope even if they added an extra lap at Aintree. He can emulate Auroras Encore, a 66-1 winner of the 2013 National a year after being a close second in the Scottish equivalent.
It must be noted that Nicholls was, if anything, more excited about the 10st 9lb allotted to Le Mercurey, who could have been given a fair bit more in light of his excellent run on Saturday, when he split Native River and Bristol De Mai at Newbury.
“If Native River goes on and wins the Gold Cup, well, we’ve run second to him getting just 1lb,” Nicholls pointed out.
But, while he has plenty of experience, Le Mercurey is only seven years old and no horse as young as that has won the National since 1940. Such trends are best used as guides rather than rules but there is not much to be said for betting on something that has not happened since the evacuation of Dunkirk.
As the weights were unveiled in stages at the Victoria and Albert Museum on Thursday night, attention focused on the favour which the official handicapper, Phil Smith, appeared to have done for connections of Highland Lodge. Trained in Cumbria by Jimmy Moffatt, Highland Lodge counts as an Aintree specialist, having run two fine races over the big, green fences, which would justify extra weight but perhaps not the 11lb by which he has been raised since he was last seen.
Trainers are not usually grateful for extra weight but Highland Lodge was so low in the weights a year ago that he missed the cut for the National. This time, thanks to Smith’s intervention, he is all but guaranteed a run, needing only two of those above him in the weights to drop out in the next two months.
“If we all still agree that there is such a thing as an Aintree factor, he’d be a prime example of it,” Smith said.
He added that Highland Lodge could be rated a bit better than the bare form of his Becher Chase effort, having got tired in the final strides on his first run of the season. “He was the winner everywhere bar the line.”
Smith’s efforts at compressing the top end of the National weights have made the race more attractive to top-quality horses and he was pleased to see Gold Cup contenders like Outlander, Don Poli and More Of That in the list. He noted there are twice as many entrants rated 150 or higher as there were a decade ago.
For the first time the National weights are topped by five Irish-trained horses, a reflection of the strength in depth of Irish jump racing at the moment. Gordon Elliott has three of the top five among his 14-strong entry for the National, which he won with Silver Birch in 2007, a year after setting out as a trainer.
The top-weighted English horse is The Last Samuri, trained in Gloucestershire by Kim Bailey and the current favourite for this year’s race at 16-1. The chestnut was second last year behind Rule The World but is 12lb higher in the ratings this time.
Weights for the 2017 Grand National
11st 10lb Outlander, 11-9 Champagne West,
11-8 Empire Of Dirt, 11-7 Don Poli,
11-6 Carlingford Lough, 11-5 The Last Samuri,
11-4 Alary, 11-3 Alelchi Inois, 11-2 Minella Rocco,
11-1 Devils Bride, More Of That,
11-0 Lord Scoundrel, Perfect Candidate, Saphir Du Rheu, Shantou Flyer
10-13 Road To Riches, Sausalito Sunrise,
10-12 Carole’s Destrier, Clarcam, Foxrock, Roi Des Francs,
10-11 Wonderful Charm, Wounded Warrior,
10-10 Blaklion, Drop Out Joe, Tenor Nivernais,Tiger Roll
10-9 A Toi Phil, Le Mercurey, The Game Changer
10-8 Cause Of Causes, Maggio, Regal Encore, The Young Master
10-7, Definitly Red, Double Shuffle, Houblon Des Obeaux, Pleasant Company, Ucello Conti, Vieux Lion Rouge,
10-6 Ballynagour, Highland Lodge, Junction Fourteen, O’Faolains Boy, One For Arthur, Vivaldi Collonges,
10-5 Bishops Road, Lord Windermere, Saint Are, Vicente, Vics Canvas, Ziga Boy
10-4 Just A Par, Measureofmydreams, Raz De Maree, Stellar Notion,
10-3 As De Mee, Cocktails At Dawn, Pendra, Rogue Angel, Seventh Sky, Shutthefrontdoor,
10-2 Gas Line Boy, Goodtoknow, The Romford Pele, Thunder And Roses, Triolo D’Alene, Vieux Morvan,
10-1 Doctor Harper, Gallant Oscar, La Vaticane,
10-0 Bless The Wings, Tour Des Champs,
9-13 Knock House, 9-12 Hadrian’s Approach,
9-11 Benbens, Potters Cross, Sambremont, Straidnahanna, Viva Steve,
9-10 Cloudy Too, Lamb Or Cod, Milansbar, Polidam,
9-9 Dromnea, Streets Of Promise, Vyta Du Roc,
9-8 Beeves, Royale Knight,
9-7 Alfie Spinner, Emperor’s Choice, Goulanes, Lessons In Milan, Mountain King, Out Sam, Sizing Coal,
9-6 Dare To Endeavour, Father Edward, Samingarry, Silver Man,
9-5 Alvarado, Milborough,
9-4 The Crafty Butcher, Waldorf Salad,
9-3 Katenko, 9-2 Federici,
9-1 Gone Too Far, Racing Pulse, 9-0 Killer Crow.
Tips for Wednesday races, by Chris Cook
Kempton
5.20 Moayadd 5.50 Bookmaker (nap) 6.20 Assertive Agent 6.50 Cherbourg 7.20 Tomorrow Mystery 7.50 On Fire 8.20 Spirit Of Gondree 8.50 Rocket Ronnie
Newcastle
2.20 Crackdeloust 2.50 William Money 3.20 Baby Ticker 3.50 Chakisto 4.20 Clan Legend (nb) 4.50 Judge Earle
Towcester
2.10 Bandon Roc 2.40 Act Now 3.10 Krackatoa King 3.40 Solighoster 4.10 Lunar Flow 4.40 Oliver’s Island
Wolverhampton
2.00 Celestial Dancer 2.30 Times In Anatefka 3.00 Fabulous Flyer 3.30 Mythical Madness 4.00 Malaysian Boleh 4.30 Byron Flyer 5.00 Alhajjaj
