Paul Nicholls, who will saddle the possible favourite Movewiththetimes in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday, has said that he feels Nicky Henderson could yet turn this year’s trainers’ championship into a three-way contest as the National Hunt season moves towards its climax at Cheltenham and Aintree.
Nicholls has won the trainers’ title in 10 of the last 11 seasons, a sequence broken only in 2012-13 when Henderson claimed the honours for the first time since the mid-1980s. His current total of £1.6m in prize money this season puts him just over £300,000 in front of Colin Tizzard, the trainer of the outstanding staying chasers Thistlecrack and Native River, with Henderson a further £110,000 adrift.
The £85,000 first prize in Saturday’s big race, the season’s richest handicap hurdle, would give Nicholls a little more breathing room before next month’s Cheltenham Festival, where it is possible the current champion will not field a runner in any of the meeting’s daily feature events.
“We’re 300-odd grand in front of Colin but that could be one race at Cheltenham,” Nicholls said. “And I think Nicky’s a much bigger danger than everybody thinks. He’s got an awesome team of horses to run, with Altior [in the Arkle Trophy] and the Champion Hurdle horses. Colin is relying on one race [the Gold Cup] and those good horses performing.
“It’s great going into Cheltenham 300 grand in front but you can come out of it 300 grand behind. It soon changes at Cheltenham. But there’s a lot of racing left on through March and through April that we’ll have lots of runners in. We’ve not got too many for the better Grade One races, but any prize money is always helpful and the Betfair Hurdle is a very valuable race and a good one to win.”
Nicholls has two entries in Saturday’s race and is hoping for a big run from Zubayr, currently on offer at 14-1. Movewiththetimes, however, is close to the front of the betting and the trainer expects Barry Geraghty, the retained jockey to the six-year-old’s owner JP McManus, to take the ride this weekend.
“I suspect that Barry Geraghty will be on this one,” Nicholls said, as Movewiththetimes paraded at his Ditcheat stable on what felt like the first day of spring down in Somerset. The sunshine gleamed on the chestnut’s strapping frame, and despite his inexperience – Saturday’s race will be only his third start over hurdles – he looks like a horse who will handle himself well in the big field.
“He started off over hurdles at Fontwell and won nicely, then went to Cheltenham on soft ground in November and was beaten three and a half lengths by Moon Racer, and he couldn’t have got in any more trouble if he’d tried,” Nicholls said. “It was one of those races, they all got in a muddle turning in, some went left and some went right and it was a bit of an odd result.
“He got blocked and stopped and he ran a bit keen, then he went to Wincanton and won again. It’s hard [on Saturday] because he lacks experience, and it’s a fast, furious gallop so they have to be at their very best jumping-wise. You’re at a disadvantage experience-wise, but with a horse like this, who knows where they might end up? One thing’s for sure, he’s going to be a really smart chaser in time.”
Zubayr, a five-year-old, is an interesting back-up to Movewiththetimes and a horse that could be well-suited by a strong pace on Saturday.
“He’s not unlike [the 2011 Triumph Hurdle winner] Zarkandar in many ways,” Nicholls said. “He was bred by the Aga Khan, and he surprised a bit last year by winning the Adonis at Kempton [in February].
“He was dropped right out in last, they went very quick and he stayed on strongly. We haven’t actually ridden him like that since then, and I think that’s what we might have to do on Saturday. He’s crying out for a fast-run handicap where you can just drop him in a little bit.
“I think as the spring improves he’s going to get better, and he did a nice bit of work with Movewiththetimes last week, you could hardly split them. The race might just suit him on Saturday.”
Nicholls had a swift response when asked if he had a tip for the Festival next month. “Enjoy the Gold Cup in the bar,” he said, adding that he feels it is Native River, a possible runner in the Denman Chase at Newbury on Saturday, who may emerge best from Tizzard’s runners in the Gold Cup.
“Thistlecrack [the King George winner and Gold Cup favourite] is a very good horse,” Nicholls said, “but he got beat [in the Cotswold Chase] the other day and that just shows that they can always get beat. Native River is going to stay and gallop, and he’s tough, and that’s what you need.
“I think he’s the one for everyone to beat in the Gold Cup. I thought that when he won the Welsh National, it was a real staying performance carrying top weight, and it will be interesting to see how he runs on Saturday against [the Peter Marsh Chase winner] Bristol De Mai.”
Nicholls feels that Le Mercurey, his entry in the Denman Chase, is probably running for third-place prize money if Native River and Bristol De Mai both go to post, while the former Champion Chase winner Dodging Bullets, who is entered in the Game Spirit Chase on the same card, is similarly expected to struggle against Henderson’s Altior, who is already an odds-on chance for the Arkle Trophy next month.
Nicholls is likely to have one serious contender for a championship race on Cheltenham on show this weekend, however, as his novice chaser Politologue is among the entries for the Kingmaker Novice Chase at Warwick.
That could force Sam Twiston-Davies, the stable’s main jockey, to make a difficult decision about where to ride, as the Kingmaker is due off at 2.40 while the Betfair Hurdle, in which he is expected to ride either Ballyandy, for his father Nigel, or Zubayr is scheduled for 3.35.
“Obviously Sam has the choice but he could ride his dad’s yet, we’ll see,” Nicholls said. “Sam doesn’t have a retainer, no contract, we just have a gentleman’s agreement.”
Today’s tips
Carlisle
1.50 The Blue Bomber 2.20 Freddies Portrait 2.50 Lastbutnotleast 3.20 Landmeafortune 3.55 Tonto’s Spirit 4.30 Alfie Spinner (nb)
Ludlow
1.40 Shantou Rock 2.10 Label Des Obeaux 2.40 Tara View 3.10 Pull The Chord 3.40 Master Blueyes 4.15 Distime 4.50 Beneagles
Chelmsford City
2.00 Moving Robe 2.30 Never Folding 3.00 Bracken Brae 3.30 Mise En Rose (nap) 4.05 Oriental Relation 4.40 Lost The Moon 5.10 Whaleweigh Station
Kempton Park
5.20 Sir Jamie 5.50 Swendab 6.20 Juan Horsepower 6.50 Pepita 7.20 Marzouq 7.50 Makaarim 8.20 Serenade The Stars
