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Evening Standard
Evening Standard
Politics
Michael Howie

Rachel Reeves will announce the Budget today: Here's what to expect

Rachel Reeves will deliver her Budget on Wednesday after a whirlwind of speculation about which taxes she will hike to help balance the books.

Here we look at some of the measures the Chancellor is expected to announce as she seeks to fill a multi-billion pound black hole in the public finances and build up a bigger buffer so she does not have to keep coming back for more taxpayers' cash.

• Income tax: After a press conference and behind-the-scenes briefings aimed at preparing the country for a manifesto-busting increase in income tax, Ms Reeves then abandoned the idea of becoming the first Chancellor in half a century to take that step.

The measure was dropped from the "hokey cokey budget", as Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle described it, after the Treasury apparently received forecasts from the budget watchdog that were not quite as grim as first feared.

Instead, she is expected to extend the existing freeze on the income tax thresholds for another two years. If she also keeps national insurance thresholds at their current rate, that would raise around £8.3 billion a year for the Exchequer in 2029/30.

By not increasing the thresholds, she will benefit from a process called "fiscal drag", where as wages go up, people are dragged into paying tax for the first time or shifted into a higher rate.

Increase in minimum wage: The Government has announced this week that minimum wage rates will increase next year, giving a pay rise to millions of workers.

From next April, the National Living Wage will rise by 4.1% to £12.71 an hour for eligible workers aged 21 and over, which the Government said will increase gross annual earnings of a full-time worker on the rate by £900, benefiting around 2.4 million low-paid workers.

The National Minimum Wage rate for 18 to 20-year-olds will increase by 8.5% to £10.85 an hour, narrowing the gap with the National Living Wage.

For 16 to 17-year-olds and those on apprenticeships, the National Minimum Wage will increase by 6% to £8 an hour.

• Rail fares: They will be frozen in the Budget, saving commuters on pricier routes more than £300 a year. It is one of a series of measures aimed at easing the cost of living despite the increased tax burden many people and businesses are likely to face.

• Prescriptions: The cost of an NHS prescription in England will be frozen at £9.90.

• Tax for electric vehicles: The Chancellor is thought to be considering a 3p per mile tax for EVs as she seeks to protect revenues as people shift away from petrol and diesel, and the fuel duty that brings in to the Exchequer.

• Freezing fuel duty: According to reports, Ms Reeves will announce she is retaining the 5p cut in fuel duty, which was introduced in 2022, and ensure it does not rise in line with inflation.

• EV buyer subsidy: She will add £1.3 billion to a grant that knocks up to £3,750 off the price of an electric vehicle as part of a package that will also see £200 million go towards the rollout of charging points.

• Tax hike on high-value homes: A new levy could be applied to some of the most valuable homes in what has been billed by some as a "mansion tax".

The move would reportedly revalue some of the most valuable properties across council tax bands F, G and H and hit 100,000 of them with a new surcharge, with the threshold starting at £2 million.

• Salary sacrifice: The Chancellor might introduce limits on how much employees can stash in their pensions under salary sacrifice schemes before it becomes subject to national insurance.

Reports suggest she could cap this at £2,000 a year, which would reduce how much people put away in their pension pots and put a dent in take-home pay for those who use the scheme to stay in a lower tax band.

• Two-child benefit cap: As pressure has piled up, Ms Reeves is expected to scrap the limit that restricts child tax credit and universal credit to the first two children in most households.

Estimates vary on how much this would cost, with the Resolution Foundation estimating around £3.5 billion by the end of this Parliament (2029/30), while the Child Poverty Action Group and Joseph Rowntree Foundation have lower calculations of around £3 billion by then.

• Crackdown on benefits fraud: Ms Reeves will seek to raise £1.2 billion by March 2031 by extending a crackdown on fraudulent and mistaken universal credit payments via the targeted case review (TCR) scheme.

Tourism tax: Visitors to English cities and regions face paying a new tourist tax to fund local projects as the Government has announced mayors will be given the power to impose a "modest" charge on visitors staying in hotels, bed and breakfasts, guest houses and holiday lets.

While the measure has been called for by regional leaders, including London Mayor Sir Sadiq Khan and Greater Manchester's Andy Burnham, the move has been condemned as "damaging" by the hospitality industry body UKHospitality.

• Sugar tax on pre-packaged milkshakes and lattes: Health Secretary Wes Streeting announced this week that these products will be subject to the sugar tax, ending the exemption for milk-based beverages from the existing tax on sugary drinks.

The move will affect products such as packaged milkshakes, coffees and sweetened yoghurt drinks, but not drinks made on site in cafes and restaurants.

• Cash Isa limit cut: According to reports, Ms Reeves may reduce the annual cash ISA limit from £20,000 to £12,000.

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