Intraparty moves have begun in the run-up to September's Liberal Democratic Party presidential election. The likely candidates are focusing on how to handle the race. This is the first installment of a series investigating the strategy of each candidate.
Tokyo recorded sub-zero temperatures on the night of Jan. 25. At a fugu puffer fish restaurant on a snow-lined street in the Akasaka district, Prime Minister and LDP President Shinzo Abe, 63, focused on his hirezake hot sake infused with grilled puffer fish fin, together with LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Fumio Kishida, 60.
Both were first elected to the House of Representatives in 1993, and they animatedly exchanged memories of the 1999 LDP presidential election. Koichi Kato, a leader of one of the party's factions at that time, suffered a major defeat when he challenged Keizo Obuchi, the then prime minister. Having provoked the wrath of Obuchi, Kato received the cold shoulder and eventually became distanced from front line politics.
Abe spoke to Kishida. "Mr. Kato made a mistake, didn't he? If he hadn't run for president at that time, without a doubt he would have become prime minister."
The Kishida-led faction, named Kochi-kai, is directly descended from the Kato faction. Abe was fishing for Kishida's true feelings about possibly running for LDP president in September's election.
Kishida did not take the bait, saying only, "Mr. Kato didn't think Mr. Obuchi would get so angry." Since last year, Kishida has been noncommittal about his position regarding the upcoming election, all the while conveying to Abe that he will support the Abe administration.
At the moment, virtually no one is questioning the prospect of a third consecutive term for Abe. Nevertheless, Abe has reason for wanting Kishida's unequivocal support.
Intraparty opinions are split over amending the Constitution. To achieve the revision, Abe believes utter victory in the LDP election -- including Kishida's support -- is an absolute prerequisite. For Abe, the LDP presidential election is a milestone on the path to realizing this long-held dream.
Surrounded by trusted colleagues, Abe slipped into telling jokes.
On the night of Jan. 11 at a New Year's celebration held by conservative Diet members at a traditional Ginza restaurant in Tokyo, Abe mentioned the presidential election.
"I'm not saying I will run. But the people here tonight will support me, I'm sure."
Outwardly, Abe is avoiding the question of whether he will run for LDP president again, saying he will consider it "when the leaves start to bud on the trees." A close source says he emphasizes putting higher priority on the Diet than the political situation. But this is also because he has leeway, having secured strong support within the party.
Among the 405 Diet members who can vote in the LDP election, all 197 members of the Hosoda (led by Hiroyuki Hosoda), Aso (led by Taro Aso) and Nikai (led by Toshihiro Nikai) factions are unwavering Abe supporters. Take into account the members of other factions and unaffiliated members who are close to Abe, a majority is easily foreseeable.
Former LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba, 61, is showing his intention to run. Abe -- who said to his aides, "The fewer horses in the running, the better" -- is picturing a strategy in which he builds a tight coalition by winning the support of all factions besides Ishiba's (which has 20 members), and eventually allowing a run by Internal Affairs and Communications Minister Seiko Noda, 57, who does not belong to any faction, that would divide the anti-Abe votes.
At a gathering at the prime minister's official residence on the evening of Feb. 1, Abe addressed a group of first-time lower house LDP members, saying, "You have become Diet members at a historic point." Abe urged them to participate in the debate over constitutional revision.
At a gathering at the prime minister's official residence on the evening of Feb. 1, Abe addressed a group of first-time lower house LDP members, saying, "You have become Diet members at a historic point." Abe urged them to participate in the debate over constitutional revision.
On Feb. 8, he spoke passionately to Diet members serving their second term about the significance of stipulating the existence of the Self-Defense Forces in the Constitution. Abe has proposed amendments that would preserve Article 9's Paragraph 2, which stipulates that the nation will never maintain "war potential."
However, there are objectors to this within the LDP -- including Ishiba. This is expected to become a point of contention during the LDP election. Abe seems to believe a large victory over Ishiba will put an end to the matter.
For a crushing victory geared toward constitutional revision, the greatest hurdle will be the rank-and-file votes of the about 1 million LDP members and registered supporters. A senior LDP member has pointed out that, "Winning a majority in the referendum for constitutional revision will be difficult without overwhelming support from rank-and-file members."
Abe lost the rank-and-file vote to Ishiba in the 2012 election. This time, there are overtones of revenge.
It was the night of Jan. 19 at a high-rise hotel near Tokyo Tower. Abe, invited by lower house member Taimei Yamaguchi, 69, arrived at a Japanese restaurant in the hotel, where he found the chairman of Tokyo Gas Co., the president of East Japan Railway Co. and other key business leaders in a private banquet room.
This was nominally an informal meeting to discuss economic matters, but talk also moved to the LDP election. Yamaguchi, who declared his support for Abe, bowed his head to the business leaders and asked them to help with the rank-and-file vote. "Abe will not ask you directly, but please help for his third victory," he said.
The business leaders showed understanding, as Abe watched and smiled.
Later, in a separate room, Yamaguchi brought Abe together with five top leaders of his local Saitama prefectural assembly. Abe fell behind Ishiba in the Saitama prefectural chapter vote in the 2012 election. Yamaguchi, now fired up, called for a clear win in the local vote this time.
Abe was very optimistic about capturing the local LDP vote, saying, "We will put local organizations of groups like the medical associations fully into play." However, it is unknown whether the power of these local organizations will lead to votes, because the new election system proportionally allots votes on a nationwide basis.
"Local voters have a strong, deep-seated air of enmity toward Mr. Abe. A heavy hand may have the opposite effect," a member of the Hosoda faction said.
In the Diet deliberations, questioning about the Moritomo issue continues on a daily basis, with an end now even further from sight. A former Abe Cabinet member who remains close to him is raising the alarm, referring to memories of last year, when Cabinet approval ratings plummeted due to the sloppy handling of the initial suspicions.
"First of all, he must ride out the ordinary Diet session with humility. That is the best strategy for the presidential election."
Appeal of a level head
Nobuo Kishi
Lower house member, younger brother of Shinzo Abe
My brother is often said to have a hawkish profile, but in reality he is something of an extreme realist. While he does harbor dreams and talks about idealistic theories, he is able to make level-headed judgments about what needs to be done to realize those ideals in society. This may certainly be part of his appeal.
There have been ups and downs since he returned to power, but with the experience of the first, short-lived Cabinet, I think he copes by more realistically tackling problems.
He has always had a strong sense of purpose and a passion for long-term issues like the northern territories and constitutional revision, rather than seeking immediate results during his tenure as LDP president. Constitutional revision in particular has been his major goal -- something our grandfather, former Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi, was unable to achieve. My brother is trying to fulfill this long-held dream.
My brother loves golf very much, just as our grandfather did. He uses the game for diplomacy, but when he plays with us, he enjoys a friendly game. In golf, he's not the type to care much about winning.
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