On the evening of Jan. 15, Liberal Democratic Party Policy Research Council Chairman Fumio Kishida, 60, dined on chicken nabe hotpot with Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso, 77, at a Japanese restaurant near Tokyo's Tsukiji district. During the meal, the two allies of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, 63, naturally discussed the upcoming LDP presidential election.
"As things stand, no one will remember who you were as policy chief. It's not enough to be a good person, you need to stand out more." Using rough language, Aso urged Kishida, a dedicated-behind the scenes supporter of Abe, to take action.
"Go for second place," he said.
Former LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba, 61, is preparing to challenge Abe in the September election, even though the prime minister is strongly favored to win a third term as party president.
"If you finish behind Ishiba, your chances of becoming party leader are finished. A second-place showing could help you in the future," counselled Aso, himself a four-time candidate for party president.
Though Aso has aggressively backed Abe in public, he also has a deep-seated rivalry with Ishiba, who was previously committed to toppling Aso as prime minister during Aso's 2008-09 time at the head of the government.
Kishida responded evasively to his counterpart, saying, "I haven't decided on anything yet." After the dinner, he told confidants, "Aso might have been saying I shouldn't run because I'd only finish second."
Kishida leads an eponymous faction (also known as Kochikai), which is fourth in size in the LDP with 46 members. He was named foreign minister at the outset of the second Abe Cabinet, a post he held for four years and seven months. In last August's Cabinet reshuffle, he was named chairman of the Policy Research Council, one of the party's three leading positions. Widely considered a leading "post-Abe" candidate, Kishida plans on backing Abe for a third consecutive term before aiming to become prime minister after the incumbent retires.
Kishida works hard to stay in Abe's good graces. When Shoji Nishida, 48, joined Kishida's faction after winning a seat in last October's lower house elections, Kishida visited the Prime Minister's Office on Jan. 18 to report the news to Abe. He made the gesture because Nishida is from Ishikawa Prefecture, which is home to many representatives from the Hosoda faction, to which Abe initially belonged.
Abe has also described Kishida in generous terms, calling him "the next leader of the LDP, who is honest and well versed in policy." There are also rumors in Nagatacho that Abe has promised to back Kishida as his successor after stepping down.
Kishida has expressed a wavering state of mind, saying: "The world is not an easy place where you can wait for things to fall into your lap. However, if I fight, I have to win."
He surely harbors bitter memories of an incident involving Koichi Kato, a former Kochikai leader. Kato had attempted to rally support for an opposition-led no-confidence motion against the Cabinet of then Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori (2000-01), a move that ultimately failed and cost him his position. Kishida associates familiar with those days urge him to exercise self-restraint, warning of a similar fate should he take on the prime minister with minimal chance of success.
On the night of Feb. 7, the Kishida faction held a dinner with the Hosoda faction in Tokyo to dispel any notion of hostility.
Abe would serve until September 2021 if he wins a third consecutive term. With figures such as Foreign Minister Taro Kono, 55, gaining prominence, members of the Kishida faction believe he should run in the election. "If Kishida does not run this time, the torch will be passed to the next generation," said a young faction member.
In response to such sentiment, Kishida has adopted a balanced offensive-defensive posture underpinned by the need to prepare for the unpredictability of politics.
On Jan. 16, Kishida dined with business executives at a hotel in Naha. Konosuke Kokuba, a 45-year-old lower house member who belongs to Kishida's faction and arranged the dinner, quickly remarked on a mayoral election in Nago, Okinawa Prefecture, before bowing his head and asking, "When the time comes to elect a party leader, please vote for Fumio Kishida." Kishida smiled approvingly.
The prospective prime ministerial candidate has toured Japan to court party members with a vote in the leadership election, which he was unable to do as foreign minister.
"My only strong point compared to other politicians is my patience" -- Kishida analyzes himself in such a way as he carefully waits for his opportunity.
Hidden passion, self-awareness
Yoshio Mochizuki
Secretary general of Kishida faction, former environment minister
Kishida listens carefully to what others say while never looking down on them. Even within the faction, young members can freely speak to the extent that they may seem to have said too much. He is an orthodox faction leader who embodies the "tolerance and patience" espoused by former Prime Minister Hayato Ikeda (1960-64), who founded Kochikai.
Kishida doesn't put on performances, but rather works hard to complete the task at hand. His efforts as foreign minister led to U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to Hiroshima and the agreement between Japan and South Korea on comfort women. Though politicians elected at the same time often become rivals, he enjoys a good relationship with Abe. Indeed, one of his strengths is that he has no enemies.
Much like how Ikeda launched his income-doubling plan, Kishida as LDP policy chief established the strategic headquarters for an era of 100-year lifespans and the future strategy research group, as part of efforts to support future generations.
Though he won't say this openly, he has the hidden passion and self-awareness to become prime minister.
We hope to produce the fifth prime minister from Kochikai and the first since former Prime Minister Kiichi Miyazawa (1991-93).
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