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Wales Online
Wales Online
National
Neil Shaw

R in UK could be as low as 0.7, and Covid growth as low as -5%

The reproduction number, or R value, of coronavirus transmission across the UK is between 0.7 to 1.1, according to the latest Government figures.

Last week, it was between 0.8 and 1.

R represents the average number of people each Covid-positive person goes on to infect.

When the figure is above 1, it means the outbreak is growing exponentially but when it falls below 1, it means the outbreak is shrinking.

An R value between 0.7 and 1.1 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between seven and 11 other people.

The estimates for R and the growth rate are provided by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), a sub-group of Sage, and published by the Department of Health and Social Care.

The growth rate, which estimates how quickly the number of infections is changing day by day, is between minus 5% and zero for the UK as a whole.

It means the number of new infections is broadly flat or shrinking by up to 5% every day.

Sage said the estimates are based on the latest data, available up to January 25, including hospital admissions and deaths as well as symptomatic testing and prevalence studies.

It warned that cases “continue to be dangerously high and the public must remain vigilant to keep this virus under control, to protect the NHS and save lives”.

“It is essential that everyone continues to stay at home, whether they have had the vaccine or not,” Sage said.

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