SACRAMENTO, Calif. _ The monthly snow survey at Phillips, off Highway 50 at 6,800 feet elevation, is in some ways ceremonial _ California also makes around-the-clock measurements with electronic sensors embedded in the ground at hundreds of sites around the Sierra.
But the Phillips location, site of an old stagecoach and Pony Express stop near Echo Summit, has become a vivid symbol of California's seemingly endless struggles to maintain an adequate water supply. It was there in April 2015, during the worst of the five-year drought, that then-Gov. Jerry Brown announced mandatory statewide cutbacks in water use for the first time in the state's history. The image of Brown sauntering through the meadow, completely clear of snow, became one of the enduring images of the drought.
Now comes further evidence of another uncomfortably dry winter. The results at Phillips mirror the readings throughout the Sierra Nevada, where snow levels are less than half their normal readings for this time of year.
Officials at Phillips Station recorded a snow-water equivalent of 11.5 inches, only 47% of average for the end of February, according to Sean de Guzman, chief of snow surveys for the California Department of Water Resources, who announced the results Thursday in a livestream to Facebook.
Statewide snowpack is a tick lower at 46% of average for this time of year, according to data dug up by those electronic sensors.
De Guzman called the month's minuscule rain and snow totals "quite disappointing," noting that it will almost certainly go down as the driest February ever measured by DWR officials in the Northern Sierra Nevada range over 99 years of recorded history.
"This past February, there wasn't actually any reported measurable (precipitation) in the Northern Sierra on our eight-station index," he said. "And that's actually never happened before in its history, since 1921."
The U.S. Drought Monitor, a weekly index assembled by several federal agencies, said Thursday that 23% of California's territory, mainly in the Central Valley and the Sierra, is facing moderate drought conditions, up from 10% a week ago. Another 46% of the state is abnormally dry.
Sacramento, meanwhile, will most likely go without rain for the entire month of February for the first time in recorded history, according to the National Weather Service, which gives just a 20% of light showers visiting the capital late Saturday night. Rain has bypassed other California cities as well, including Fresno, Merced, Modesto and Stockton.
The prospects of a "March miracle" are uncertain at best, as most long-range forecast show dry weather continuing for the foreseeable future. March miracles do occur, but they're rare. In 1991, the snowpack zoomed from 18% of normal to 74%. In 1995 Sacramento got nearly 8 inches of rain in March, more than twice the average, according to the National Weather Service.
In a state where supplies are routinely stretched thin and water policy can pit presidents against governors, the dry weather has stoked fears of another drought. California relies on its reservoirs to get through summer and fall, and a generous snowpack is needed to replenish those reservoirs after winter ends. The snow provides about 30% of the state's year-round water demands, on average.
What's working in California's favor is that it usually takes multiple dry winters to create a drought, and last winter was wetter than average. The reservoirs are generally in good shape, with the state's largest reservoir, Shasta Lake, actually fuller than normal for this time of year.
On the other hand, a dry winter can leave the state more vulnerable to major wildfires once summer arrives. Although the five-year drought officially ended in 2017, it killed millions of trees and likely worsened the devastating 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons.
"We'll most likely end this water year below average," de Guzman said Thursday. "We just don't know how far below."
