HARTFORD, Conn. — Just hours before the polls open across the country, Democratic challenger Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump in Florida and Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University poll.
Nationally, likely voters favor Biden over Trump by 11 points (50-39), a number that hasn't changed substantially since September.
The poll, conducted from Oct. 28-Nov. 1, surveyed 1,657 likely voters in Florida, 1,440 likely voters in Ohio, and 1,516 likely voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 or 2.6 percentage points.
Forty-nine% of likely voters had a favorable opinion of Biden (compared with 42% unfavorable opinion), while 54% of likely voters said they have a negative opinion of Trump (compared with 39% favorable).
In Florida, 47% of likely voters support Biden while 42% support Trump. Voters tend to have a more favorable view of Biden (48-43) and an unfavorable view of Trump (50-42).
Similarly, likely voters in Ohio support Biden 47-43 over Trump, viewing him favorably by a narrow margin (47-46). Forty-two% of likely voters view Trump favorably, compared with 51% who view him unfavorably.
Florida, who went for Trump in 2016, is considered one of the big six swing states — along with Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and North Carolina — that are most likely to determine the outcome of the election.
After voting for Obama twice, Ohio overwhelmingly went for Trump in 2016; he won by over 8 points.
In a huge departure from recent elections, only 27% of likely voters nationwide said they would cast an in-person ballot on Election Day. Another 37% said they will or have already voted using an absentee ballot, while 35% said they will or have already voted at an early voting location.
Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy said that while the numbers look good for Biden nationwide, the 2016 election "lurks in the memory of Democrats."
Ohio has picked the winner of every presidential race since 1964, said Quinnipiac University polling analyst Mary Snow, but Trump is "losing some ground in the final stretch to Joe Biden."
