Although Bhumjaithai (BJT) leaders insist the party remains united, a series of recent developments has fuelled speculation over whether Thailand's dominant coalition partner is facing more than routine political tensions.
Attention has focused on reports of disagreements over appointments, the increasingly prominent role of party secretary-general Chaichanok Chidchob and the relationship between party leader and Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and the party's de facto patriarch, Newin Chidchob.
The party is also under growing pressure from an investigation into alleged collusion in the 2024 Senate election, while reports that rival parties are trying to lure away BJT MPs and influential local politicians ahead of the next general election have added to the speculation.
Political analysts, however, say the tensions are unlikely to threaten either the party's unity or the stability of the government.
More pressure than division
Stithorn Thananithichot, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, said suggestions that internal divisions within Bhumjaithai could trigger the government's collapse or force an early election were overstated.
Instead, he said the visible tensions were more likely a reflection of mounting pressure from outside the party as other political power centres grew wary of Bhumjaithai's expanding influence over appointments and state administration.
"There have been several issues where mechanisms that are supposed to be managed jointly appear to have gone beyond what is agreed," he said.
"Examples include votes on appointments to independent organisations that did not follow the expected outcome or attempts to place too many of the party's own people in key positions. That has led to various responses."
He cited the investigation into alleged irregularities in local administrative recruitment examinations as one example of an issue that had drawn in actors beyond the party itself.
"The collapse of the government remains highly unlikely," he said.
Mr Stithorn argued that scenarios in which Bhumjaithai is pushed out of the coalition and replaced by another political arrangement were unrealistic under current conditions.
"Those who believe the coalition can simply be reconfigured by sidelining Bhumjaithai are misreading the political landscape," he said.
He said the biggest risk for Bhumjaithai would be if it came to be seen as overly dominant or increasingly difficult to negotiate with, as perceptions that the party was wielding excessive influence could provoke stronger resistance from other political power centres.
Asked whether the reported tensions were linked to Deputy Prime Minister Pakorn Nilprapunt's proposed bureaucratic reforms, Mr Stithorn said the initiative stemmed primarily from efforts to address the government's growing fiscal burden.
He said policymakers viewed rising personnel costs, recurrent expenditure and large off-budget funds as long-term problems, with streamlining the bureaucracy seen as one way of freeing up resources for other priorities.
He added that internal strains could also emerge as politicians who joined the party ahead of the last election sought a larger share of cabinet posts.
Unity at the top
Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, dismissed suggestions that internal disagreements could destabilise the party.
He said any differences were more likely to involve lower-ranking politicians than the party leadership, describing Bhumjaithai as one of the country's most cohesive political parties.
"The relationship between Mr Anutin and Mr Newin is solid. Differences of opinion are normal in politics, but I don't believe the two will part ways," he said.
Mr Thanaporn said there was currently no issue serious enough to threaten the government's stability. Instead, he said the administration could strengthen its position if it tackled examination fraud and convincingly explained the controversial Th-AI Passport project, both expected to feature in the planned no-confidence debate.
He also dismissed suggestions the Senate election collusion investigation could bring down the government unless clear evidence directly implicated senior political figures.
Mr Thanaporn said external factors posed greater risks than internal party tensions, particularly the security situation along the Thai-Cambodian border and the economy.
He said the government would also face pressure after the Thais Help Thais co-payment scheme ends and over plans to implement its proposed borrowing programme to finance the transition to a green economy.
Mr Thanaporn said the government's proposed bureaucratic reforms would also be closely watched. If the administration raised expectations but failed to deliver, it would pay a political price.
"Bureaucratic reform has never been easy," he said. "The key is whether there is sufficient political will."
Asked whether the opposition had any issue capable of seriously damaging the government in the upcoming no-confidence debate, Mr Thanaporn said he had yet to see one.
He argued the opposition's main weakness lay not in a lack of issues, but in its handling of relationships with fellow politicians and potential information sources.
"If the opposition can improve those relationships and adopt a more constructive approach, its oversight role could become significantly more effective," he said.
"Public attention is easy to attract. What is difficult is obtaining substantive evidence that can genuinely bring down a government."
