After barely a year in power Queensland’s minority Labor government is abuzz with talk of an early election after its shock desertion by the Cairns MP, Rob Pyne.
But the odds are against a snap poll, according to one senior government source, with no signs Pyne poses a threat to Labor’s core legislative agenda.
The Queensland premier, Annastacia Palaszczuk, has flagged an early election as an option to gain a popular mandate should state parliament’s now pivotal crossbench prove an obstacle.
She is reportedly being urged to call an election by some ministers, backbenchers and senior party figures dismayed that Labor’s numbers in parliament now sit at 42, equal to the Liberal National opposition.
The government source told Guardian Australia there was “a lot of discussion, not in an official forum, but in every discussion everyone is having”.
“I’d say [an early election] was a 40% proposition,” the source said.
The source agreed the government was unlikely to face defeated bills in parliament on the basis of Pyne’s differences with Labor over issues such as Adani’s Carmichael mine and mining company water entitlements.
Pyne, now one of three left-leaning independent MPs on a crossbench of five, told Guardian Australia the apparent push within Labor for a poll “smacks of political opportunism at its worst”.
He had written to the state governor advising he expected to vote with Labor on most of its bills and he supported Palaszczuk serving a full term.
Pyne called on the premier to “show some leadership” and resist calls for an early poll.
“There’s a lot of scaremongering from mischievous sources within the Labor party,” he said. “It would be political opportunism, and if the premier wants to call an election she can call it in her name, not in my name.”
Pyne was not confident of retaining his seat as an independent as “the dice is fairly loaded for the major parties”.
Quitting Labor was “a moral decision I’ve made in terms of how I can look myself in the mirror and know I’m giving the best possible representation for the people of Cairns”.
Both the LNP and the Queensland Greens branded Palaszczuk a hypocrite for flagging an early election while supporting the case for fixed four-year parliamentary terms in a referendum to be held this month.
The opposition leader, Lawrence Springborg, told the ABC there was no need for an early election given the LNP “respects the fact this government has a working majority” and that “Queenslanders voted for a new government to serve a full term”.
“There is a competence issue around government, not a confidence issue in parliament,” he said.
Springborg said Palaszczuk was being inconsistent by supporting a coming referendum for fixed four-year parliamentary terms while “she wants to call an early election”.
Queensland Greens spokesman, Andrew Bartlett, said Palaszczuk’s position highlighted the “hypocrisy” of Labor and business lobby rhetoric for longer terms, which was “nothing to do with better democracy and all about making it easier for those with power to do what they like without having to worry about being held to account by the public”.
“Labor cannot possibly argue for longer terms for parliament whilst at the same time refusing to rule out an early election just because they don’t like the makeup of the current parliament any more,” Bartlett said.
Pyne’s exit, which blindsided Palaszcuk, has prompted fears among Labor ministers that mismanagement of MP grievances by the premier’s office could leave the party exposed to another desertion by a disgruntled regional MP, Fairfax reported.
Asked by reporters on Tuesday about whether the loss of Labor’s second MP since Billy Gordon last year could be a trigger for an early election, Palaszczuk said: “I am not ruling it out, because I am making it very clear to Queenslanders I am here for them.
“I am here to govern for them in the best interest of them and I will not allow anyone to stand in my way.
“When I put legislation through the parliament that is about creating jobs, I say to all members in parliament here today, ‘I need your support. And if you don’t give me your support, I’ll get the support of the Queensland public.’”
Pyne said the Palaszczuk government “generally manage to get the numbers from somewhere” to secure legislation, with 40 bills passed so far without a defeat at a second reading.
As an independent, Pyne said he would still have voted for contentious lockout laws that were opposed by Gordon but passed with the support of the two Katter’s Australian party MPs.
Conversely, Pyne intended to vote against looming water reforms that favoured access for miners “but the Katter party would probably support it”.
