And that is where we will leave you tonight.
To recap, Annastacia Palaszczuk has become the first woman to win three consecutive terms.
At the end of her four-year term, Palaszczuk will have been leader of Queensland for longer than Peter Beattie.
Palaszczuk all but claimed victory – she stopped short and said she was “confident” – but she stood up to speak before her opponent conceded, which is a bit weird, and a massive break in tradition.
Jackie Trad, the former deputy premier, has lost her seat to the Greens.
Labor has 47 seats. There is the potential for 50 – and majority government – but we won’t know the outcome of that for some time.
The LNP may have gone backwards – we need to wait and see how some of those contests pan out.
The LNP leader, Deb Frecklington, says she is staying on as leader of her party – but that is a decision for the party room. Anyone can call for a spill, so keep watch on that one.
I had previously written that no one should be surprised if the LNP snatched (minority) victory – neither the Labor nor LNP campaigns could get a handle on what was happening in individual electorates. And as I reported at the time, that is because the sheer number of early voters made it difficult to get a handle on where the vote was taking them.
The LNP reports were the same. No one could tell. And we saw that play out tonight –there wasn’t exuberance from Labor, just exhaustion. It has been a very tough campaign. Hopefully everyone can now sleep for at least a whole night – maybe even a sleep in.
We’ll continue to follow what happens – and a very big thank you to our poll interpreter extraordinaire, Ben Raue, for his expertise, Ben Smee for his work this entire campaign and Graham Readfearn for standing sentry at Labor’s election party in Inala in these very strange socially distanced times. And of course, thank you to everyone in the Guardian brains trust – there is a lot of work which goes into these blogs, from editors to producers, to subs – and without them, I’d never get this project off the ground.
I’ll be on a news shift tomorrow, so stay tuned to the website for updates. Thank you again for spending your evening with us. Queensland has once again lived up to its reputation as being deliciously unpredictable and I love it.
If you were in those storms today, I hope you’re OK. And I hope you all have a lovely night’s sleep.
Take care of you.
Updated
Seconds before Annastacia Palaszczuk walked in, the Queensland state Labor party president, John Baddams stood on the stage and stuck three fingers in the air.
“Three, three, three,” he shouted, as the Tom Petty track Won’t Back Down shot over the PA system at Inala’s Blue Fin Fishing Club.
Before Palaszczuk had finished pledging to keep working for another four years in what will now be her third term as premier, the LNP leader, Deb Frecklington, had conceded.
The theme from Labor party elders here tonight has been pretty consistent. Palaszczuk was a leader who stood up to a concerted attack over her border stance. And she would not back down.
She’s gone home for the night. So have most of the party members.
Annastasia Palaszczuk has left the building. pic.twitter.com/SINkwjnzlh
— Graham Readfearn (@readfearn) October 31, 2020
Updated
Thank you Queensland ❤️
— Annastacia Palaszczuk (@AnnastaciaMP) October 31, 2020
We aren’t going to have every seat finalised tonight, although we have a pretty good picture of what has happened.
Tonight we’ll get a large portion of the pre-poll and postal votes, but it will take some time to get all of those votes counted, and that may mean a handful of seats remain undecided.
I suspect Cooper and McConnel will remain unclear until all votes are counted and preferences are distributed, and we find out if the Greens make the top two.
Labor has managed to hold on to those urban seats in north Queensland, in particular in Townsville, which were seen as vulnerable before tonight.
Labor also looks likely to pick up some extra seats on the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast.
They’ve won Pumicestone, and are in the lead in Caloundra, Coomera and Hervey Bay further north. Those specific seats may change, but Labor is also not far behind in a number of other LNP marginals in the south-east of the state.
The Greens have made substantial gains in terms of their primary vote in the inner city.
They have at least won a second seat in South Brisbane, with a chance in two others, but they have also gained substantial swings in other seats surrounding those core Greens electorates.
We may not know the final seat count, but it is clear that the LNP did not gain the anti-government swing they hoped for.
Updated
Deb Frecklington:
There’s so many people to thank through this campaign, and so many of you are here in the room tonight.
Thousands of you who have stood out on the polling booths, who have done pre-poll, who have knocked on doors, who have made the phone calls, who have helped us with policy ... because you are the Liberal National party, and I am so proud of you.
And I very much appreciate, to each and every party member, from Cynthia Hardy down, our president, every single person within and involved within the Liberal National party, thank you so very much for holding the morals and the values that we hold so dear on behalf of the people of Queensland. Thank you.
Frecklington apologises for “not getting there”.
I’m sorry we didn’t get there, but I’m just so grateful to each and every one of you. I’ve been almost everywhere in Queensland over the last four weeks, and I know how hard all of you have worked and how hard our volunteers have worked, and how hard our candidates and our MPs have worked. Now, no other party has worked harder than the Liberal National party. You’ve given it everything, but this was not our time. But our time will come. And we will get Queensland working again.
Updated
Going back to #qldpol now
Sean Connery has died
Just breaking into the Qldpol coverage for a moment – Sean Connery, the best Bond (don’t fight me), has died aged 90.
Updated
Deb Frecklington says she is not going anywhere, saying she will “continue to play my part, as the leader of this great party”.
That is going to be a decision for the party room though – and as with all political parties, there are people eagerly waiting in the wings.
Updated
LNP leader Deb Frecklington concedes election
Deb Frecklington has taken to the stage – she stood up around the same time as Annastacia Palaszczuk, her campaign tells me – so she had conceded (I missed it though, as I was watching Palaszczuk).
Frecklington:
I’d like to congratulate Annastacia Palaszczuk on her victory tonight. Now I may not agree with the premier a lot of the time, but I respect her as an opponent and as the leader of our state. But most of all I respect the voters of Queensland. And we are so privileged to live in this democracy.
Updated
Here’s Labor leader Annastasia Palaszczuk arriving at Labor HQ. pic.twitter.com/zABdKnsGop
— Graham Readfearn (@readfearn) October 31, 2020
Deb Frecklington gets a mention.
So far, Annastacia Palaszczuk’s former deputy, Jackie Trad, has not got a mention:
I also want to commend the leader of the opposition for what I think has been a very good campaign. It is the first time that two women have gone head to head, and I think people might comment that it was a much more respectful debate than we have seen in times gone past.
Updated
Annastacia Palazsczuk 'confident' of a majority
Annastacia Palaszczuk is not claiming victory here – stopping just short of it.
Deb Frecklington has not conceded.
(You might remember Bill Shorten went quite late into the count before he conceded the federal election.)
Palaszczuk:
We go through tough times and we work together and we listen and we get through it. But I also know that we need to have a strong recovery plan. This has been a tough year and we’ve got to get people back into work. I give my commitment to the people of this state that my team will roll up our sleeves and we will get back to work as quickly as possible for you.
And I’m confident we will do it with a majority Labor government!
Updated
Annastacia Palaszczuk:
But most importantly, can I acknowledge the people of Queensland. It has not been an easy year for many, many people.
For many Queenslanders, I know it has been an incredibly tough year. It has been tough not being able to see your family and friends in other states, or even around the world, as we’ve been in the midst of a global pandemic.
But here in Queensland we’ve all stood strong and united, and together we are on top of the pandemic, and if we continue to work together we will stay strong.
I grew up a few streets away from here and as a young child, education was important and family was important. There is nothing more important than family.
There is nothing more important than the dignity of work and people being able to get up every morning to be able to provide for their family. And this year has been tough because of Covid. Many, many people have lost their jobs through no fault of their own.
I know that during this election, there are many people out there in Queensland who have voted Labor for the very first time. I thank you from the bottom of my heart and I will return that respect every single day.
Updated
Steven Miles and Cameron Dick get special thank yous – as does the federal MP Milton Dick, who is Cameron’s brother and one of Annastacia Palaszczuk’s closest and oldest friends.
Updated
“Good evening Queensland, and good evening Inala,” Annastacia Palaszczuk says.
She thanks Queensland, Labor leaders, volunteers, community workers, the “mighty union movement” and voters.
Updated
Annastacia Palaszczuk enters Labor HQ to cheers
A victorious Annastacia Palaszczuk, wearing pink, has entered her party’s election night gathering to cheers, hugging her family.
She has shunned the traditional Labor red for pink – the colour she also chose to wear to vote.
Deb Frecklington has not conceded.
Updated
Annastacia Palaszczuk has become the first woman to win three consecutive elections.
She was the first woman to win an election from opposition in 2012.
Her first ministry had a majority of women, another first in Australia.
She was the first woman to win two elections in 2015.
And now she is the first woman to win three.
At the end of her fourth year in power, she will have been the leader of Queensland for longer than Peter Beattie.
Updated
At the moment these are the seats I’m watching:
- McConnel – The Greens candidate, Kirsten Lovejoy, is just 2.6% behind the LNP candidate. If she can jump into second she can benefit from preferences and potentially overtake Labor.
- Cooper – The Greens candidate, Katinka Winston-Allom, is just 1.4% behind the LNP, although the postal votes that knocked down the Greens in McConnel are yet to be reported. The order of elimination will be crucial.
- Coomera – Labor’s Chris Johnson is in the lead on the raw preference count but the ABC computer projects a 0.2% LNP lead.
- Hervey Bay – Labor’s Adrian Tantari is in the lead, but the ABC computer expects that lead to narrow.
-
Caloundra – The ABC has called this seat for the ALP but with a margin of just 2%.
- Chatsworth – The LNP is projected to win 52% of the two-party-preferred count here.
- Glass House – The LNP is just slightly ahead here.
- Nicklin – The ALP has just taken a slight lead in this LNP seat.
In addition, Labor has gained Pumicestone with a healthy majority.
Labor is currently sitting on 47 seats, and is leading in a further four. That includes Cooper, Hervey Bay, McConnel and Nicklin. The LNP has won 33 seats, and is leading in a further two: Coomera and Glass House.
For Labor to not win a majority, it would probably need to lose Cooper and McConnel to the Greens and then lose three other seats it is currently leading in: Nicklin, Hervey Bay and Caloundra are the most likely seats to be in this position.
Updated
Labor will have four years in office this time round – a change at the last election (on a referendum) means fixed four-year terms (instead of three years).
Updated
Amanda Stoker is continuing to miss the point – she just mentioned what a loss to Queensland not having Lauren Day, the Maiwar LNP candidate Ben Smee has reported on, as being backed by the Christian right. Day herself is very conservative. (I remember when we were reporters in Queensland together, Day broke from the press pack to ask John Howard for advice on being an LNP candidate.)
Again, perhaps inner-city Maiwar, which went Green – and that is despite having a very popular LNP local member in Scott Emerson (a moderate) – doesn’t want to vote for the hard right? Just maybe, that could be the lesson?
Updated
Labor holds on in the north – and to government
Labor has held on in the north – and Labor hits 47 seats.
Barron River, Keppell and Townsville have gone Labor’s way – at least from what I am seeing and hearing.
Fifty seats is not out of question.
That’s a three-seat majority.
Updated
The former Greens senator Andrew Bartlett says it’s a good night for the Greens.
He says any night when the party grabs an extra seat, as it has in South Brisbane, is a good night.
Bartlett is running in Clayfield, and was also previously a senator for the Australian Democrats for 11 years. He’s well behind.
The Greens could still be in with a shout in McConnel, but it’s very close, he says.
Updated
Annastacia Palaszczuk on her way to Labor HQ
The Queensland premier is on her way to the Labor party, Graham Readfearn tells me - she is feeling confident
Amanda Stoker, one of the LNP’s hard-right conservative senators – she is very against the completely invented ‘trans-agenda’ and not afraid to speak on it – says the LNP needs to go and have a look at what it is doing in Brisbane.
As we said earlier, you can’t win Queensland without winning the south-east. And the south-east is not hard right. Like all inner-city electorates it is a mix – but not a hard-right one.
But Stoker misses that in her review:
Well, part of the job for all of us as elected representatives and those who have organisational roles is to listen to all the different people in the party, get their views and do the good, hard looking. But there’s a real difference, I think, in tone and the robustness of the points of view that has come from my colleagues on the other side of the table having reached that magic number.
In many ways you could see it as a weaker result when compared to the way that this has played out in other jurisdictions who have faced what you could call the Covid effect.
It’s another way of looking at the same thing. Either way, though, it doesn’t help the LNP, and we’ll need to do the good, hard work that’s necessary to make sure that isn’t repeated.
... You can talk about the way that we go about campaigning, you can talk about message, you can talk about it a whole bunch of different ways, but I think it would be to speculate to do that right now. It would be better, I think, until we’ve got all the data in and we have a good listen to the people on the ground and what they’re saying is the problem.
Updated
LNP can't win majority government
There was a chance the LNP could cobble together a minority government – Labor was worried about that earlier in the week, as I reported.
But the primary vote has dropped – One Nation voters have gone to LNP and Labor.
The LNP, at this stage, will be lucky if it retains the 39 seats it went into the election campaign with.
It’s still very unclear if Labor will get a majority, but Sandy Bolton, the Noosa independent, will be an important voice.
Tim Mander, the LNP deputy leader, blamed the pandemic:
I believe it means that the pandemic has had a major impact on another opposition, as it has in other jurisdictions around this country and overseas. It’s been, as I said earlier, very, very difficult to get oxygen. It has a distinct advantage to be in control, to be in authority, during a crisis.
The government has milked that extremely well.
Steven Miles, Labor’s deputy leader says, ummm no:
I want to take up what Tim was saying. I don’t think you can say that this is just a result of incumbency and the pandemic. I think it’s also an assessment of how we handled the pandemic and how the opposition responded to that.
You know, they fumbled it throughout. They criticised our health advice, they criticised the health officer, called for the borders to be opened when Queenslanders wanted the borders closed. I don’t think it’s fair to say they just couldn’t get oxygen – what they did with the oxygen was wrong too.
Updated
I had noticed in a few seats that no actual preference counts had been included in the count, and the ABC was instead using estimated preference flows to convert the real primary vote figures into estimated preference counts.
Apparently every single seat in the alphabet starting at Mulgrave is currently in this category, which suggests some sort of IT blockage with the electoral commission.
I don’t think this significantly changes the picture but it’s just another source of uncertainty.
Updated
There are screens all over the place here at the Blue Fin Fishing Club, and Channel Nine’s “Labor wins” backdrop still isn’t enough for any cheers at this Labor HQ just yet.
The federal MP for Oxley, Milton Dick, brother of the Queensland treasurer, Cameron Dick, who is well ahead in Woodridge, says he’s a “traditionalist”. That means he won’t be happy until the ABC’s Antony Green calls the election.
“It looks increasingly likely that Labor will form government, but we are waiting for pre-poll and postal votes.”
He remembers votes in New Zealand and the Brisbane city council election, where results were presumed until late shifts.
“With so many votes to count, I would not be too cocky. We want to respect the votes of all Queenslanders.”
Updated
James Ashby is also blaming the loss of local newspapers in regional Queensland for One Nation’s results.
He thinks Pauline Hanson campaigned “very heavily” over three months, but he blames the media for her not getting coverage. (Hanson has previously said she didn’t need the media, as she had Facebook and social media.)
Ashby:
Again it comes down to the fact that you in the media don’t have the resources. The ABC whinges all the time it doesn’t have enough funding to go and do crosses from regional parts of this state.
You have all the money down there in the south-east corner.
Well, it’s the same for all the commercial networks.
They haven’t got the resources. So I think that’s part of the problem.
One Nation has always traditionally done very well in the regions. You’ve had no cameramen, there’s no snappers for newspapers out there, there’s bugger all journalists. They don’t even have offices any more. You have journalists working from their little corner cupboard in their house.
That’s what we’re dealing with in regional Queensland. And you guys down there, you suck it all up, the ABC is pretty sat and fat down there in Brisbane. We’ve got nothing in the regions.
The ABC host points out that the ABC has the same regional teams it had at the last election (as in numbers) but yes, a lot of the newspapers have stopped printing – and are now online.
Ashby talks over him:
No, radio stations that you give bugger all too, then you network it out of some studio in Brisbane. That’s what you’re doing.
The bush is dying out. That’s exactly what’s going on. The bush is missing out and I tell you what, under this Palaszczuk government they’re going to miss out even worse and it will be the farmers that will suffer and it will be you down in the south-east corner that will suffer most because your fruit and vegetable prices will go through the roof.
We will be stung significantly. The fishermen out there will absolutely be raped and pillaged and I tell you what, it will be Labor’s fault. You watch, it’s coming. You’ve got four years to suffer this.
Updated
James Ashby, Pauline Hanson’s chief of staff, is the spokesman for One Nation at its electoral party tonight for the ABC (Hanson being on Sky News).
One Nation has retained Mirani – so it has not lost any seats. But it has not done anywhere near as well as it thought it would do in central Queensland.
Updated
The Noosa independent, Sandy Bolton, has retained her seat.
She is about to get very popular, if the vote trend continues and Labor falls just short.
Updated
We are still waiting to see how those postal votes start breaking.
It is going to be a fairly long night.
The former federal treasurer and ALP national president Wayne Swan has arrived at Labor HQ. Like everyone else, it seems, he reckons the early numbers are looking good for Labor.
But he says the time has come for reform of the rules around party structures and donations, and says what Clive Palmer’s United Australia party managed to do with a scare campaign around a non-existent Labor death tax should not happen again.
“The early numbers are strong, but it’s a little early to call. But all this has been achieved despite a force five cyclone of disinformation coming mainly through the LNP and Clive Palmer and a massive effort from a sitting prime minister to dislodge a state premier. Yet Annastacia Palaszczuk has managed to prevail.
“There needs to be major reform of political advertising and we need to look seriously at the registration of what I call pretend parties like the Palmer party.
“We need new rules to knock out pretend parties.”
ALP president Wayne Swan has landed in Inala. He says Palaszczuk has prevailed in the face of a storm of disinformation. pic.twitter.com/Zcm0JVQNtH
— Graham Readfearn (@readfearn) October 31, 2020
Updated
The LNP senator Susan McDonald has just taken a very big swipe at Australia Post while talking to the ABC.
... it is still early days, a lot of pre-poll to be counted and only about 50% of the postal votes back.
Australia Post’s performance in this regard has been truly appalling and a lot of people worried about whether they would get a vote at all or disenfranchised in that process.
... Well, I think if you apply for a postal vote and it doesn’t arrive until either the Thursday of the election, before the election, or in many cases, people still haven’t received their postal votes, then I think that’s pretty poor for an organisation that just delivers stuff. So perhaps if they were delivering packages, they might have done better, but certainly people have been disenfranchised around regional Queensland.
That is worth mentioning because it has been EXACTLY Labor’s argument against Morrison government changes regulating how Australia Post delivers letters.
Updated
Katter’s Australian party really concentrated on just a few seats and it has paid off – KAP, led by Robbie Katter, has held on to its three seats, and its preferences will be very telling.
Updated
It looks like most of the ordinary election day vote is in and we have entered the traditional lull before more of the pre-poll and postal votes report. We’re expecting the bulk of those votes (at least those that will be counted tonight) to come in during the next two hours.
The Australian and Nine have also called the election for Labor.
We are being cautious – and the Labor campaign heads I am speaking to are as well – the postals and pre-polls has a few seats in doubt and will be “tight”.
The LNP’s not feeling overly confident, but they haven’t given up all hope as yet.
Labor has a chance at a majority government, on the numbers I am seeing, combined with what I’m hearing, but there is every chance at the moment it could fall short.
We are waiting to see what the next two hours show us – we need to see the trends of the postal and pre-polls.
Updated
A point being made to me here at Labor HQ is that the massive number of postal votes is skewing early counts a little.
Counts in Redcliffe, the seat held by the Labor attorney general, Yvette D’Ath, shows a swing to her of less than 1%.
But Labor says that postal votes tend to favour incumbents and so races like this will look different when all the pre-poll and postal votes are counted.
Updated
Terri Butler is a friend of Jackie Trad and campaigned with her:
Jackie has been a staunch and fearless representative.
— Terri Butler MP (@terrimbutler) October 31, 2020
She faced an appalling smear and dirty tricks campaign with great dignity.
I am grateful to her and her family for everything they have done for our community.#southbrisbane #qldpol
Updated
Courier Mail calls victory for Labor
The state (News Corp) newspaper, the Courier Mail, has called a victory for Labor:
#BREAKING Annastacia Palaszczuk has led Labor to victory in the Queensland state election https://t.co/5aHcxhFdX3 #qldvotes pic.twitter.com/CCnl7r9ZN9
— The Courier-Mail (@couriermail) October 31, 2020
Updated
The Labor veteran and former Brisbane city council chair Les Bryant is in charge of writing up the results for the Inala electorate as they come in.
Only about half the votes have been counted because of all the pre-poll and postals to come back, but Bryant reckons Annastacia Palaszczuk has won about 70% of the two-party preferred vote, which would be up on the 68% she won in 2017.
Labor stalwart Les Bryant is writing up the votes for the Inala electorate. About half the votes are in. He reckons she’s won 71% 2PP so far. pic.twitter.com/c2trAb3MxT
— Graham Readfearn (@readfearn) October 31, 2020
Updated
Our preference system is pretty simple when the race is a head-to-head between two candidates, but it gets interesting when there is a third.
The rise of Greens contests has seen a proliferation of seats where we can’t call a seat on the night because we don’t know which two candidates will make it into the top two.
In Balmain in 2011, in Prahran in 2014 and in Ballina in 2015, the Greens narrowly squeaked ahead of Labor after the distribution of preferences, then comfortably defeated the Coalition candidate to win the seat. Usually the Liberal in these races is not in an election-winning position, but we don’t know who they’ll lose to until the full distribution of preferences is calculated.
That seems likely to be the case in Cooper and McConnel, where the Greens may come in the top two, or may not.
While we’re talking about preferences, it’s worth returning to Labor’s decision prior to the 2017 election to switch Queensland from optional preferential voting to compulsory preferential voting.
In New South Wales, which uses optional preferential voting, the Liberal party is very happy to opt out of making a hard preference decision in inner-city Labor-Greens contests. They simply encourage their voters to exhaust.
Liberal parties in other states, and in federal elections, don’t have that choice, so they have to choose between two unappealing options.
This effectively gives the Liberal party (or the LNP in this case) more power in deciding these sorts of races.
They gained that power when the state Labor government switched the voting system before the 2017 election.
Updated
Amanda Stoker is telling Steven Miles he can “play his grubby games” as he reminds her that when the LNP executive v parliamentary party was at war, Stoker said that Deb Frecklington shouldn’t be claiming that she was being bullied.
Now Stoker says:
I don’t think she was being bullied and I don’t think she had any difficulty dealing with it. She said she was. Because she is strong, smart and as I said at the time, she’s a great leader ... (Miles: “She said she was standing up to bullies”) ... you can say whatever you like.
She did a great job, her team was behind her, she was backed in by a great deputy. To the extent that anything might have reared its head for a moment it was squashed just as fast.
What Stoker said at the time though was Frecklington “should not be blaming bullying, should not be playing the gender card”.
It is a weak thing to do to try and pretend this is something about gender, this is something about bullying.
Updated
Labor says Cooper, the seat held by the retiring Labor minister Kate Jones, is close.
It could go Green, as Ben Smee has pointed out.
Updated
Henry Palaszczuk, the premier’s dad, has been holding court at the Inala do.
“I’m proud of all my daughters and they’re all as good as each other and they all stick together.”
All the questions to him are as though she’s won. Did the tag of being an “accidental premier” get on her nerves?
“That never bothered her and it didn’t bother us.”
I’m told Annastacia Palaszczuk is still at least an hour away from making an appearance here. But there’s definitely a bit of socially distanced excitement here at the Blue Fin.
Updated
Yes we know that election counts that are just based on election-day votes are not fully representative and we should be cautious, but I’d also caution about being more confident about vote counts that are dominated by postal votes.
At the moment the Greens are in third place in the inner-city seat of McConnel on 27.8%, behind the LNP on 30.2%. But that sample includes a big chunk of postal votes. If Kirsten Lovejoy can break into the top two then that seat will definitely be in play.
Updated
Steven Miles is fighting with the LNP members of the ABC panel about Amy MacMahon’s election.
He says MacMahon won because of LNP preferences, and that the LNP will “be responsible for every position the Greens take”.
Amanda Stoker says that is “outrageous”.
It is like watching Twitter wars play out on an election panel.
To be fair, LNP preferences did help – but MacMahon’s first preference vote was very strong.
Updated
Pauline Hanson has told Sky News she does not believe Annastacia Palaszczuk will get back in to government.
For some reason, she is not concerned with her party’s voting numbers – she thinks postals will break in One Nation’s favour.
Updated
Antony Green has called South Brisbane for the Greens.
We did that a little earlier after hearing from Labor campaigners on the ground.
Amy MacMahon (with Larissa Waters right behind her) says “people are fed up with Labor and the LNP” and she credits the Greens’ positive campaign for her win.
Updated
Labor’s deputy premier, Steven Miles, says there isn’t a chance in hell that Labor will do a deal with the Greens.
Updated
At the moment Labor is leading in 52 seats, the LNP is leading in 34 seats, KAP is leading in three, the Greens in two, with one independent and one One Nation.
Labor is currently leading in five LNP seats: Caloundra, Clayfield, Coomera, Hervey Bay and Pumicestone.
Labor has lost South Brisbane and is otherwise leading in all the seats it won in 2017.
Updated
Labor campaigners are saying that Yvette D’Ath, the attorney general and member for Redcliffe, is “fine”.
The prepoll for Clayfield, where the LNP’s Tim Nicholls (the sitting MP) was looking a little shaky, are breaking his way so he should retain his seat.
Updated
The LNP senator Amanda Stoker says the LNP is doing very well in Bonney, where the party’s Sam O’Connor looks like holding the seat.
Updated
Usually we would be calling the election for Labor at this point. But the sheer number of postals and pre-polls means that we, like most others, are being very cautious.
As Ben Raue said, you would want to be Labor in this contest, but the large amount of early votes means that you can’t confidently pick it.
Updated
Nita Green, a federal Labor senator, has oversight of north Queensland (just as Murray Watt has oversight of the Gold Coast) so that’s why I include her here:
Good booth results in Cook so far. A strong primary for Torres Strait Islander woman Cynthia Lui - and the Torres Strait booths haven’t come back in yet. 👏 #QLDvotes2020 #auspol https://t.co/M43ceCS7Nt
— Senator Nita Green (@nitagreenqld) October 31, 2020
Updated
We’ve seen a trend in recent Victorian state elections where the Greens have gained swings in inner-city electorates while the total statewide vote has largely stayed still, thanks to a decline in support in less Greens-friendly areas.
Perhaps we’re seeing something similar in Queensland tonight. The ABC’s latest estimate for the statewide Greens vote is 10%, which is exactly the same as what the party polled in 2017. Of course it’s entirely possible the party could end up polling higher by the end of the count, but that’s where they are now.
That swap of votes between the inner city and less friendly areas would be a good deal for the Greens, since it will make it easier to win more seats.
In the absence of a proportional upper house those outer suburban and regional Greens votes can’t help them win any seats.
Updated
Wayne Swan just told David Speers his advice to Labor, if in minority government and the question of a Greens deal came up, would be “don’t do it”.
That is what state Labor has been saying as well. And federal Labor. As we have discussed in this blog earlier in the week, Labor peeps were talking about a Labor-Greens coalition as “electoral suicide” for the Labor party – not just at a state level, where the central and north regions would revolt – but also from a federal perspective.
“Tasmania on steroids” was how it was described to me earlier in the week.
Still, we all wait and see.
Updated
Wayne Swan, the federal Labor president and former MP for the federal seat of Lilley, isn’t counting his chickens just yet.
I think it is a very strong result so far, but there is no record book for how we count this from here on in.
We don’t know what the patterns are going to be, so far too early to call it.
I’m delighted with the strength of the vote that we are seeing across Brisbane.
In seats like Aspley or up in Pumicestone, towards the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast. They are strong results. When you look to the regions, we are still very competitive as well. Overall, so far, so good, but a long way to go.
Updated
Annastacia Palaszczuk is at home but her dad has turned up at the Blue Fin Fishing Club in Inala all smiles.
Henry Palaszczuk headed straight for the whiteboard in the corner, where the Inala electorate votes are being written up as they come in.
As his daughter’s electorate is the second-safest Labor seat in the state, he probably didn’t need to check the numbers. But he did.
No sign of Annatasia Palaszczuk here yet - could be an hour or more - but her dad Henry has turned up. He’s looking happy. pic.twitter.com/VZVswCKvRU
— Graham Readfearn (@readfearn) October 31, 2020
Updated
You can’t win Queensland without winning a pretty large chunk of the south-east.
So far, Labor is doing very well in that region’s 36 seats.
Updated
This from Ben Raue is key to what is happening tonight:
If Labor was having a rough night you would expect them to be doing poorly in seats like Barron River, Townsville, Thuringowa and Mundingburra in north Queensland, but at the moment Labor is leading in all four.
It’s very difficult to know what to make of the seat calls so far.
Election night predictions are based on comparing like-with-like, but there have been hundreds of thousands of voters who have switched from their local booth to pre-poll and postal voting, and we don’t really have a good comparison.
Still you’d rather be in Labor’s position right now.
Updated
Far and away the biggest spender on election advertising was Clive Palmer.
His party has won 0.7% of the statewide vote.
Updated
Campbell Newman has entered the group chat:
Spare me the COVID-19 excuse for what's happening tonight in Qld. The LNP primary vote was 36pc a year ago. We had a problem prior to the pandemic
— Campbell Newman (@CampbellNewman) October 31, 2020
Updated
Labor is saying that Redcliffe is looking OK as a Labor retain, as some more big booths come in.
Results all over the place at the moment.
Updated
I’ve just heard from another Labor campaigner who says that all three Townsville seats are “looking OK” – but they are still waiting for a clear list.
Just remember the number of postals and pre-polls will influence this.
Ahhh - there we go - Townsville might be a loss. Depends on postals.
Updated
News from Labor in Townsville is reaching the party HQ in Inala that the Labor member Scott Stewart is ahead in counts in all nine booths so far in the very, very (very) marginal seat of Townsville (0.4%). The LNP really, really wants to win there.
Updated
The pre-poll votes are going to be very, very interesting here.
There are some battles neither party saw coming – Tim Nicholls, the former Newman government treasurer is in trouble in Clayfield, while Yvette D’Ath being in trouble in Redcliffe is not something either party mentioned ahead of time.
But there are about 440,000 postal votes across Queensland to count – they are going to have an impact.
Updated
With just over 17% of the vote counted, the serial LNP candidate Kerri-Anne Dooley is ahead of Yvette D’Ath, the sitting attorney general.
Updated
Postal votes are starting to come in for a few seats – that’s early to start counting postals – but it tells you how low the booth votes were today.
On the postals, the ABC’s Antony Green says that in McConnell Labor’s Grace Grace is ahead of the Greens.
On Cooper, which Ben Smee has been telling you about, the retiring minister Kate Jones had high hopes for her replacement, Jonty Bush, but it looks like the Greens candidate could claim the win (as reported by Ben).
Updated
One Nation vote collapses
On the collapsing One Nation vote, conventional wisdom would have said that is good news for the LNP.
The LNP’s primary vote was very, very poor in some regional areas in 2017, particularly areas where One Nation polled well.
But we’re not seeing the vote go back from One Nation to the LNP strongly enough in some places.
The LNP has made a huge push in Townsville. In Thuringowa (western Townsville) the LNP’s vote is 26.9%. In Mundingburra it’s under 30%.
Updated
State of play – so far
It would be silly to call any of the close races until we get a much bigger number of votes counted, but I count six LNP seats where Labor is leading, two Labor seats where the LNP is leading, and one Labor seat where the Greens have won.
The seats where Labor is leading are:
- Caloundra
- Chatsworth
- Clayfield
- Coomera
- Hervey Bay
- Pumicestone
The LNP is leading in Redcliffe and Townsville.
The Greens appear to have won South Brisbane.
That would translate to a net gain of three Labor seats, but there’s a lot of marginal seats that are capable of flipping back and forth.
Updated
Here is one of the main stories of the Queensland election. One Nation has seen its vote collapse. Completely.
I can think of one appearance Pauline Hanson made during the campaign – she was in a semi-trailer that drove into Rockhampton.
Turns out you can’t just campaign through Sky News, even with it being shown in the regions.
Frame this #qldvotes pic.twitter.com/8tFVVnRjyB
— David Alexander (@davidFalexander) October 31, 2020
Updated
We have results flying in all directions right now, but there are a few unexpected seats where Labor is leading.
The former LNP leader Tim Nicholls is narrowly behind in his inner Brisbane seat of Clayfield.
Labor is leading in the central Queensland seat of Hervey Bay, which was held by the LNP with a 9.1% margin. The ABC is currently calculating a swing of 11.8%.
Labor is also leading in the Gold Coast seat of Burleigh.
I reported some very encouraging figures for the independent Claire Richardson in Oodgeroo, but she’s now fallen to just 21.6%, behind Labor on 26.9%. She’ll need to get ahead of Labor to have a chance.
Updated
Mansfield is another very marginal seat the LNP had to win in the city – the swing is 7% to Labor.
Like Maiwar, the party chose a Christian conservative, the Citipointe church pastor Janet Wishart, as its candidate. Locals say there have been huge numbers doorknocking for her.
Like Maiwar, the LNP’s primary vote is way down.
We’re a long way from a result tonight too, but the LNP was already confronting existential questions because of its lack of ability to win city seats. Further losses will only make those questions more pointed.
One may be whether the party is out of its mind picking rightwingers in urban areas.
Another is whether the Liberal and National parties might be better as friends than lovers and should consider a divorce.
Small-L progressive Liberals have been telling me consistently they don’t feel they have a place in the modern LNP.
Updated
With just over 7% of the vote counted in Hervey Bay (and this area has a large older population, so the postals will be interesting), Labor’s Adrian Tantari has his nose ahead of the LNP incumbent, Steve Coleman.
Watch that one too.
Updated
Amy mentioned Aspley earlier. It’s looking like Labor has won comfortably.
It was never going to be the seat that tipped the result one way or the other, but Aspley tells part of the election story.
The LNP has known it can’t win a majority without areas like Aspley, which at council level is a stronghold for the party. It even chose a three-term local councillor to run.
Updated
Labor shaky in north, but strong in south-east
While Labor is looking shaky in some of its northern marginals, the LNP is likewise behind in some of its marginals in the south-east.
Before election night there was strong speculation about Labor compensating for losses in Townsville, Cairns and other northern areas by gaining seats off the LNP in the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast.
Of the 10 most marginal LNP seats before tonight, Labor is currently leading in four: Pumicestone and Caloundra on the Sunshine Coast, Coomera on the Gold Coast and Chatsworth in the Brisbane suburbs.
These seats may save Labor’s bacon if they lose seats to the LNP in the north and to the Greens in the inner city.
Updated
There was lightning crackling in the sky on the drive to the Blue Fin Fishing Club, the location for Labor’s post-poll Covid-safe gathering in Inala, the electorate of the premier, Annastacia Palaszczuk.
There’s about 100 people here and the food service is open – brisket burgers and fish and chips – but sadly I’ve already eaten.
One Labor source here says the overall result is “line ball”, but there’s early optimism from the Gold Coast seat of Burleigh Heads, where early counting shows a big swing of about 10% away from the sitting LNP energy spokesperson, Michael Hart.
They’re also feeling good about the Sunshine Coast seat of Caloundra. There’s expectation that by about 8.30pm, things should start to liven up.
Updated
Robbie Katter had a chat to the ABC about who he would support if a minority government is necessary:
I think it behoves us to behave very aggressive in any negotiations and it’s pretty silly to ask people if you’re turning one way or the other.
I might look stupid but I’m not that silly that I would tell you who I’m going to go with before I get to a negotiating table.
I know what I’d say if I was on the other side of the negotiating table, bugger off. You’ve’ve told me where you’re going. We’ll see how we go.
Updated
At the moment Labor is leading in most of its most marginal seats.
Looking at the 10 most marginal Labor seats, it is currently trailing in Townsville and Barron River, both north Queensland urban seats, and effectively tied in Keppel, which lies to the north of Rockhampton.
This suggests Labor is doing relatively well at defending its south-east Queensland seats (at least where it’s defending from the LNP), as well as some of its northern seats, but losing Townsville, Barron River and Keppel would be a blow.
Updated
Jackie Trad most likely out of the Queensland parliament
Jackie Trad cannot win her South Brisbane seat from here.
The Greens’ Amy MacMahon will join the Queensland parliament and Labor has lost its first seat this election.
Updated
There are some very socially distanced events happening tonight:
Raucous, wild scenes at Labor HQ #QLDvotes2020 pic.twitter.com/D7RyFFZTGT
— Stephanie Zillman (@Steph_Zillman) October 31, 2020
Updated
The Greens are actually ahead on *first preferences* in Cooper – a 15% swing to them on primaries. They only really need to finish second.
Same story in McConnell – 20% to them 2PP.
That rumoured Green wave may be real.
Updated
Tim Mander, over on the ABC election panel, says it pays to remember that more than a million people pre-polled and sent in postal votes, which means the booth numbers are down, skewing the swings.
Traditionally, as he says, postals and pre-poll votes do tend to go towards the LNP, but the sheer number of votes may mean those early votes don’t go the usual LNP way.
Updated
What we seem to be seeing so far is two very different elections happening here – Labor is doing very well in the south-east so far, but the swing is against Labor in the regions.
Federal Labor will be watching this very closely.
Updated
The seat of Maiwar, which Ben Smee has written about quite extensively because the LNP made the decision to run a candidate backed by the Christian right in a seat that is fairly small-L liberal, looks like it will be retained by the Greens MP Michael Berkman.
The LNP preferences are flowing against Jackie Trad – it looks like she has lost the seat of South Brisbane to the Greens.
Updated
Six members of the crossbench won seats in 2017: three Katter’s Australian party, one Greens, one One Nation and one independent.
There are prospects of the crossbench growing substantially in 2020.
The Greens are targeting a number of seats, with a particular focus on two additional seats.
They are leading on the primary vote in South Brisbane and McConnel. The sample is small in South Brisbane and very small in McConnel, but it suggests they are doing relatively well and have a good chance of gaining both seats.
The One Nation MP Stephen Andrew is doing very well on the two-candidate-preferred count against Labor in Mirani, but there’s no guarantee they will make it to the top two. On the latest figures he is on 31.6% with the LNP trailing on 28%. If the LNP can overtake One Nation then that two-candidate-preferred count will do him no good.
Outside of Mirani, One Nation is experiencing negative swings in most places, although it is running in a lot more seats, which will dampen the statewide swing. As an example, there are big swings against One Nation across the Townsville area.
Katter’s Australian party already holds three seats and has polled strongly in the past in other north Queensland seats. KAP is doing very well in their three incumbent seats but don’t appear to be competitive anywhere else.
There are very few votes counted in the LNP seat of Oodgeroo, where the independent candidate Claire Richardson is running, but she’s currently leading on the primary vote.
Updated
Laura Gerber, the LNP Currumbin MP, is behind at the moment, with just over 16% of the vote counted.
Richard Stuckey has about 5% of the vote at the moment – he seems to be having an impact.
Updated
Steven Miles, on the ABC panel, says there is a swing towards Labor in the Labor-held seat of Gaven – but he is unsure of the booths that have been counted as yet. So that is a technical way of saying too early to tell.
Updated
Just got word from one of Labor’s campaign leaders (again, I can’t name them because they aren’t allowed to speak for the party – it is one of those weird quirks of political reporting – the party rules mean that if they speak, without authorisation, they can be punished) and they believe that Labor will make gains in the south-east (at this stage), which follows what Ben told you below.
But Labor is very unsure about what is happening in Townsville and Cairns.
Updated
It’s fair to say the LNP is very concerned about early results in the south-east, and some seats showing very strong swings to Labor.
The LNP holds seven seats in the south-east by less than 3%. There are a handful of others that are within reach if the swing is on. Caloundra, Pumicestone, Currumbin, Burleigh and Chatsworth are being watched very closely at this stage.
Not to mention the deputy leader Tim Mander’s seat of Everton.
Updated
Currumbin is also shaping up as a major battle – and one that Labor is hoping to pull off.
Laura Gerber retained the seat for the LNP after the former minister Jann Stuckey resigned, later claiming she was bullied out of the seat.
I know Stuckey. She doesn’t tend to let things go. And so her husband is running in the seat as an independent, to disrupt the LNP vote. Stuckey has also commented several times against the LNP – she was there long enough for her voice to be very loud.
Updated
We have four booths reporting from Townsville (just under 2,000 formal votes), and the ABC’s computer is projecting the two-party-preferred vote to show the ALP ahead by just 11 votes. It’s still early, but it suggests the seat remains very close.
We do not have any voting figures from Thuringowa and Mundingburra, which are the two other Townsville-area electorates. All three are marginal Labor seats.
Updated
The primary vote for the Greens MP Michael Berkman is up by almost 11% in Maiwar. The LNP vote is steady and the Labor vote is down by about 10%. Berkman barely defeated Labor in 2017.
With Labor preferences he is in a strong position to win.
The Greens are hopeful of winning the neighbouring seats of South Brisbane (held by the former deputy premier Jackie Trad) and McConnell (held by the Labor minister Grace Grace).
We don’t have any data from South Brisbane. The Greens are leading on the primary vote in McConnell off one tiny booth.
Updated
Labor has been quietly been confident about Bundaberg – its candidate there, Tom Smith, is doing very, very, very well – so far.
Labor tracking has him at about 50%, which is a big deal in these contests.
Labor hopes a win in Bundaberg will offset a loss in Townsville. So far, Smith is seeing a 8.1% swing against David Batt, with 7.2% counted.
Meanwhile, Barron River – traditionally a Labor safe seat (on Greens preferences) – is swinging towards the LNP.
Updated
Aspley is the south-east seat the LNP really, really, really wants to win.
It’s held by Bart Mellish on just 1.2%.
At the Aspley state school booth, which is one of the bigger booths, and one that is hotly contested, Mellish has 50% of the primary votes counted so far – just under 400.
Updated
Also to keep in mind – Queensland has full preferential voting. It was introduced by the Labor government to try to stop the ‘just vote one LNP campaign’ ahead of the last election.
That means all candidates have to be numbered, making who to put last difficult in electorates that have both anti-vaxxers and One Nation – and makes the preference flow hard to track.
Updated
Just something to keep in mind – there was talk of a massive Greens swing at the local council election, particularly in Brisbane – Australia’s biggest council.
In the end, the Greens won one ward. At the federal election, Larissa Waters had a few concerning moments over whether or not she would hold her Senate spot. She did – but the Green wave didn’t happen in the federal election either.
I can make no guesses over what will happen here – I’m just making the point.
Updated
The early counting is good for Labor in Townsville – a minor swing in its favour.
Townsville is Labor’s most marginal seat, but actually the least likely of three seats in the northern city to flip.
Labor folks are more pessimistic about the Townsville seat of Mundingburra and Barron River, on the outskirts of Cairns.
Updated
On Jackie Trad’s chances, Steven Miles says:
The one thing I know about Jackie – she won’t have left one stone unturned to try to hold South Brisbane in what will be a challenging contest.
But let’s be clear, it is only challenging because the Liberals had chosen to preference her. If they had preferenced the Greens last, then Jackie wouldn’t be in trouble at all.
So I think that’s really what’s playing out here. They were willing to completely trash their brand in order to take one seat off Labor in the hopes of making it easier for them ...
Tim Mander responds to that:
There is one Green member in parliament [Michael Berkman, Maiwar] and that is because of Labor’s preferences. So that’s crazy he talks about principles.
It was amazing enough after the last election when there was a lot of discussion about what the LNP should do at the seat of South Brisbane and basically a revolt from our members with regards to the fact that we didn’t do what we’ve done this time.
Jackie Trad is very polarising, particularly amongst our supporters, and they are very comfortable with the decision that has been made. In fact, in some ways you could say that they demanded it, and now we will see what the result will be.
Updated
One of the stories tonight is whether we will get a Green wave in the inner-city.
Cooper, where the very popular Labor minister Kate Jones is retiring, is probably the fourth seat that would go Green.
Greens folks are telling me the first booth in from Cooper, Kelvin Grove, shows a 13% swing to them. If that holds up across the electorate, the Greens will win it.
Updated
One Nation finished second in 16 seats at the last election, but only won one.
Pauline Hanson has not been out campaigning as much this time round – and the vote has dropped considerably, at least as far as the polls are concerned.
But where she is popular – particularly in Townsville – those preferences will play a very big role.
Meanwhile, Clive Palmer has spent close to $5m in advertising this campaign – basically keeping media companies alive, a year after he did it for the federal election campaign. He won’t win a seat, but those preferences will most likely go against Labor. His entire campaign has focused on Labor, claiming it could put in a death tax. There is NO suggestion of that.
Anyways – watch Townsville.
Updated
Over on Nine, he said Deb Frecklington might be able to put together a minority government with support from the crossbench.
Former Liberal National Party premier Campbell Newman tells @SkyNewsAust he reckons Labor will get across the line tonight. #qldvotes #qldpol #auspol
— Mark Ludlow (@M_Ludlow) October 31, 2020
Updated
Steven Miles answered the same question:
I think Tim is right, variations between the regions and Brisbane, and you only to have see where we have been spending our times during the last couple of weeks, where there could be a change of hands.
In Cairns, Barron River and Cairns, defending seats in the south-east, but certainly seats in the regions where we’ve campaigned very hard, have good candidates that have run good campaigns, but they are the seats we expect to watch tonight.
Updated
Over on the ABC, Tim Mander was asked about the LNP’s chances:
It will be a difficult task, there is no doubt about that. But Deb [Frecklington] has run a very, very positive campaign, a campaign all about the future, about having a vision for this great state, about having policies that will stimulate the economy and increase employment.
So to tell you the truth, it is one of those elections where I really don’t know what the result will be.
It will be different, I think, around the state, different in the regions than it will be in south-east Queensland. I think some surprises – I don’t know what the surprises are.
Updated
Early voting dramatically higher during Covid-19
This is the biggest election being held this year, but it’s not the first since the pandemic started. We’ve had local government elections and state byelections in Queensland, a federal byelection in Eden-Monaro and territory elections in the ACT and the Northern Territory.
The common thread in all these elections is that a lot of people have chosen to vote early, and this election has been no different.
A total of 1,288,696 pre-poll votes were cast before election day. This is 38.2% of all enrolled voters. Another 26.8% of electors were sent a postal vote kit. About a third of those potential postal votes will be counted tonight.
This is the culmination of a trend taking place over the last decade, but things sped up dramatically under Covid-19. Just over a quarter of votes cast in 2017 were pre-poll votes, with just over 60% voting on election day. This time around, we’d expect that less than a third of all votes will have been cast today.
Past experience suggests that when voters discover the convenience of voting early (either in person or by post) they don’t go back. It will be interesting to see how many voters return to voting in person on election day in 2024.
Updated
If election panels are your thing, you have Steven Miles and Tim Mander on the ABC (the two deputy leaders).
Over on Sky, there are federal Queensland MPs David Littleproud, Pauline Hanson and Murray Watt.
Updated
Queensland polls close
Let the counting begin.
A reminder – all those postal votes can’t be counted until now either – and usually start getting counted once the booths are done and dusted.
Strap in.
Updated
Speaking of Ben’s stories, there is also this:
Updated
There are a couple of side stories I’m interested in tonight.
The first is Maiwar, where the anti-abortion lobby has spent significant money and time campaigning against the Greens MP, Michael Berkman. The LNP’s candidate, Lauren Day, is backed by the party’s Christian right – which is odd in an area traditionally held by progressive Liberals and which flipped to the Greens in 2017.
Earlier today, LNP volunteers were spotted helping put up anti-abortion signs labelled “disinformation” by experts earlier in the campaign.
LNP volunteers putting up anti abortion signs in Maiwar pic.twitter.com/QL4j5mDA5l
— Ben Smee (@BenSmee) October 30, 2020
Most expect Berkman to hold his seat. But word is the Labor vote will be down. And LNP folks are saying radically different things.
A few people close to the LNP campaign have been briefing that the party is tracking with a high enough primary vote (in the region of 45%) to be competitive in Maiwar.
Others in the LNP say it’s not close and the Greens will win.
The other side story tonight is the fate of two bitter political enemies – Labor’s left faction figurehead Jackie Trad, and the ultraconservative Liberal National MP Mark Robinson.
Trad’s seat of South Brisbane is under serious threat from the Greens.
No one was watching Robinson’s seat of Oodgeroo in the Redlands area until a few weeks ago. There is a viable independent, Claire Richardson, who has tapped into community opposition to the Toondah Harbour development.
Updated
Former Queensland deputy premier Jackie Trad, is still standing outside the West End state school, handing out how-to-vote cards.
Trad has been all but abandoned by the Labor and union campaign machine - she was forced to resign from her position as both DP and treasurer following integrity scandals - she was cleared by the state’s corruption watchdog, but the reports were very damaging.
The Greens have been a growing threat to Labor in the inner-city seats - particularly South Brisbane. But the biggest threat is the LNP have directed their preferences to the Greens, rather than Labor, in a bid to topple Trad.
It was LNP preferences which saved Trad in 2017. She was urged to switch seats, but didn’t, having called the community home for many, many years.
For what is worth, there is a lot of angst in the LNP over the decision to preference the Greens over Labor. While half of the party is all for seeing Trad leave the Queensland parliament (where she has sat since Labor’s 2012 wipe out - Trad took over from former premier Anna Bligh) the other half are very uncomfortable with the party potentially having a fairly strong hand in delivering another Greens seat in the parliament.
Updated
Just under 30 minutes to go until polls close.
More than 140,000 electors voted in the first hour of election day, with over 820,000 votes cast by 4.00pm today.
— ECQ (@ECQInfo) October 31, 2020
Read the SGE update here: https://t.co/bqYybm9m2y pic.twitter.com/hryQPFjrod
Updated
I’ve had some chats to campaigners on both sides in the last hour.
They can’t give their names, because they aren’t authorised to speak for the party, or the campaign.
Both have reported a fairly quiet day. Labor seems a little more confident about the south-east than it did earlier in the week.
The border closure flipped to unpopular in the last week of the campaign, and it has been more of an issue in the south-east than elsewhere in the state. Still, despite the unpopularity (people want to be able to go to Sydney and vice versa), greater Sydney is still locked out.
The LNP is feeling OK about north Queensland, but not confident enough to say which way it will land.
That’s not a huge help to those of you at home, I know. I’m not letting you know for any other reason than to let you know that people can’t pick this one.
Updated
There is about 40 minutes left before polling booths close around Queensland.
Counting begins at 6.01pm.
Updated
We don’t have photos of Deb Frecklington voting, because the LNP leader voted in Townsville.
Townsville has three seats and both Labor and the LNP have thrown a lot at claiming at least two of them.
When Annastacia Palaszczuk voted at her local state school, it wasn’t a universal warm welcome.
This LNP volunteer seemed to have a few things to say.
You can read more here.
Updated
Whitsunday – held by North Queensland First on a margin of 0.7%
Whitsunday was the most marginal LNP seat at the 2017 election. Its sitting MP, Jason Costigan, was suspended from the party in early 2019 and now leads his own party, North Queensland First.
This seat is one of several on the central and northern coast narrowly won by the LNP at the last election. Its conservative vote is likely to be split four ways between Costigan, the LNP, One Nation and Katter’s Australian party, which could allow Labor to win Whitsunday back and bolster its numbers.
South Brisbane – held by Labor on a margin of 3.6%.
The Greens are focusing their attention on three seats in inner Brisbane: Maiwar – which they won in 2017 – McConnel and South Brisbane. South Brisbane has been the highest profile of these races.
South Brisbane is held by Labor’s Jackie Trad, who served as deputy premier and treasurer in the Labor government until May.
In 2017 the LNP dropped to a distant third in this seat, with the Greens polling more than a third of the primary vote. The LNP gave its preferences to Trad, who held on by a 3.6% margin. This time around the LNP has reversed that decision and will recommend that voters preference the Greens candidate, Amy MacMahon, above Trad, which could end her career. A number of polls have put the Greens in the lead.
Updated
Mundingburra – held by Labor on a margin of 1.1%
Mundingburra is one of three Labor marginals covering the Townsville urban area. Losses in these seats would make it a lot harder for the party to stay in government.
The ALP is under threat from three parties in the Townsville area. One Nation and Katter’s Australian party have both polled over 10% in Mundingburra. If KAP were to overtake One Nation, it’s conceivable it could also overtake the LNP and challenge Labor for the seat.
Mundingburra was crucial in the downfall of a previous Labor government. Wayne Goss’s government won a third term in 1995 with the barest of majorities but lost this when the result was overturned in Mundingburra, where it had won by 16 votes. Labor lost the subsequent byelection and the National party returned to power for the next two years.
Currumbin – held by the LNP on a margin of 1.2%
Currumbin covers the southern end of the Gold Coast. It’s now held by the LNP’s Laura Gerber, who won a byelection this year after the retirement of the Liberal National MP Jann Stuckey, who held the seat with a 3.3% margin in 2017.
The LNP is now dominant on the Gold Coast, holding most seats in the region, but a YouGov poll this month showed a swing against it. This electorate in particular will have been deeply affected by the state government’s border restrictions, so the reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic will be a big issue.
The Labor government holds power by a slim majority, so making gains in LNP seats like Currumbin would help it to withstand potential losses in other areas.
Seats to watch
Ben Smee, Graham Readfearn and Ben Raue have looked at some of the seats to watch in the coming polls.
Let’s take a look:
Aspley – held by Labor on a margin of 1.2%
Aspley is one of Brisbane’s outer marginal electorates and covers suburbs on the northern edge of the city, including Bridgeman Downs and Carseldine. Labor’s Bart Mellish won the seat in 2017 by just 752 votes after it had been held by the LNP for three terms.
Aspley is the southern tip of a block of Labor-held seats which have been crucial to rebuilding the party after its 2012 defeat.
Updated
Seriously - the storms in Queensland right now seem insane (and I say that as someone who has lived through plenty of Queensland storms and dismissed as a bit of rain, even as trees crashed through the roof.)
AAP writes:
Queensland has been hit with tennis ball-sized hailstones as a series of dangerous supercell thunderstorms race across the state’s south-east.
Severe thunderstorms that formed along the Great Dividing Range are pushing towards the coast from the NSW border to areas north of the Sunshine Coast.
Hail up to 7cm in diameter fell at Ipswich, Gatton and Adare, west of Brisbane, the Bureau of Meteorology said on Saturday.”
“These thunderstorms are a significant threat to property and life,” the bureau tweeted.”
Read more here:
Updated
An emergency alert has been issued for the south east. It’s headed to Gympie.
⚡🚨⚠️⚡ LIFE THREATENING STORMS IN #SEQLD, including #GoldCoast #Logan #Brisbane #Ipswich councils with 13cm HAIL reported at Hillcrest. Stay safe #Queensland. Listen to @QldFES advice and ABC radio for the latest as well as our warnings at https://t.co/r4IpFfEevt. pic.twitter.com/xkJClp6IoP
— Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland (@BOM_Qld) October 31, 2020
Updated
Here is what has fallen in the last hour:
There’s some wild weather hitting the South East this afternoon. Please everyone pay attention to the warnings and stay safe! #ifitsfloodedforgetit pic.twitter.com/LC9MrHVxve
— Annastacia Palaszczuk (@AnnastaciaMP) October 31, 2020
Updated
Both leaders cast their vote mid-morning – when the skies were blue.
Just voted in my electorate of Inala, with my friend @MiltonDickMP and my number one supporter @HenryPalaszczuk 😊
— Annastacia Palaszczuk (@AnnastaciaMP) October 31, 2020
Polls are open until 6pm if you haven't already voted! #democracysausage #QLDvotes2020 pic.twitter.com/Lj2UoWiVg0
1️⃣A vote for the @LNPQLD = a stronger economy, more jobs, no new taxes, less crime, $300 car rego rebate, more infrastructure, better health and education. #qldpol pic.twitter.com/MqUmQzUnL7
— Deb Frecklington MP (@DebFrecklington) October 31, 2020
Updated
Given there are very serious storm warnings for most of the south-east at the moment, I am not sure how many more people will be venturing out.
The hail pictures have been insane. Cricket ball-size (all hail must be described in sport ball terms. It’s the rules.)
Only 2 hours left until polling booths close!
— ECQ (@ECQInfo) October 31, 2020
Polling booths for the State general election close at 6pm. If you are still in line at 6pm, stay in line! You will be able to vote if you are in the queue by 6pm.
Find your closest polling booth here: https://t.co/gIvgiz2BMi
Updated
Hello!
Welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of Qld Votes.
Brisbane has had a few storm warnings today but the real turmoil seems to have been within the major parties – no one has a handle on how tonight will go.The Queensland parliament has 93 seats (no upper house, for those who don’t live #qldpol like I do) and so 47 is the magic number.
Labor currently 48 seats, the Liberal National party has 39, the Katter’s claimed three, One Nation has one, the Greens hold one seat and there is an independent.
It’s been a weird campaign, with each of Queensland’s very distinct regions feeling very, very differently.
The polls have gone in Labor’s favour, but point to a narrow victory. More than 1 million people cast their vote before today.I asked a couple of campaigners on both sides what the polling day was like and they all answered “very quiet”.So, no one has a handle on this.
But you have us to guide you through whatever Queensland throws at us tonight. I can tell you the feds are also watching - they want to know what role incumbency plays here, in a state where covid has been under control for months.
You have Amy Remeikis with you at the blog helm, with Queensland correspondent Ben Smee and Graham Readfearn on the ground and and Ben Raue doing his magic results interpretation.
Queensland doesn’t have daylight saving, so the polls won’t close for another two hours yet. Still, there is plenty for us to get through until we start seeing those vote counts roll in. Will we have a result tonight? Who knows! The only thing predictable about a Queensland election is its unpredictability – just one of the reasons the greatest nation on earth is the most interesting electoral area in the country.
Ready?
Updated
