The wash-up
For the second election in a row, Queensland does not know who its leader is.
And for all those having a go in the comments and social media, that is exactly what was predicted.
Labor, based on Ben Raue’s count (and it would seem Labor’s own, from what they are telling me) still have a path to majority victory.
Others are not so sure and think a deal with the Katter’s may be imminent.
One Nation did not see the support it believed it was due.
The LNP-One Nation deal, as loose as it was, appears to have backfired. Following the Western Australia result, this now has to see some reflection from the Coalition in how they deal with Pauline Hanson and One Nation.
Queensland will always surprise you.
That’s it from Michael McGowan, Ben Raue and me for the night. I am hanging around Queensland for a little while longer to see how some of this plays out, so keep in touch. Politics Live will be back on Monday, with Christopher Knaus continuing to fill in for me while I try to make sense of what is happening in my home state, but I will be back with you on Wednesday for some more federal shaningans.
A massive thank you to the Guardian Australia team for keeping me going tonight, and of course, to you, the readers, for keeping me amused, even when disagreeing.
And also to coffee, for keeping me going.
Sleep well my political hounds, and stay tuned to the Guardian for more updates. See you on the other side.
Updated
In a Brisbane hotel conference room, the LNP faithful watched the results come in with a sense of resignation.
Most seemed to have accepted that a majority LNP government was unlikely, but held out hope for what one volunteer called “a Stephen Bradbury moment”.
“I think we’ve done as well as expected given what we were up against,” one party member said.
The room started to thing out when it was clear a final result wouldn’t be known on Saturday, and when he finally did arrive just after 10.30pm the LNP leader Tim Nicholls did as expected and said the result was inconclusive.
He said that Queenslanders had voted to “shake things up” and that Palaszczuk “has not won a majority in her own right”.
But he conceded that the LNP too would fall short and of a majority, “and we must accept the will and the vote of the people of Queensland.”
He also gave a glimpse of the LNP’s likely line of attack in the coming days, putting pressure on Labor and Palaszczuk “to keep her word” by not forming a coalition government with minor parties.
“We ran a positive campaign unlike our opponents and unlike the union movement who had only fear, smear and no ideas,” he said.
Tim Nicholls throws Annastacia Palaszczuk’s words about no deals back at her, and says the real question now is whether she will keep her word.
The latest count has Labor on 43 seats, the LNP 37, KAP on 2 and 11 undecided.
Former Newman government ministers Ian Walker and Tracy Davis have both lost their seats, on the current count.
This is obviously not the result the LNP were hoping for.
A picture really does say a 1000 words
Tim Nicholls has arrived at the LNP event
Tim Nicholls and Deb Frecklington have arrived at their Brisbane event.
Firstly, he says, let me say thank you all very much for your patience tonight.
“And let me say thank you, a big thank you for all the people who have supported my team and myself, over the last 18 months, and particularly the last four weeks.”
Nicholls looks tired. Not surprising for a man who has been in water tanks and tractors and on dirt bikes for the past four weeks as he attempted to prove his everyman cred.
He says it is clear that Queenslanders have voted to shake things up. But that Labor hasn’t won a majority.
Neither have the LNP
And it looks like Annastacia Palaszczuk has left already.
I just did a quick scoot around the party room, and couldn’t see her and the crowd has thinned considerably.
No result will probably do that to an election party.
Here is the whole Annastacia Palaszczuk speech, for those playing along at home:
Full Speech: Premier @AnnastaciaMP says she's confident Labor can form a majority government. https://t.co/lgHSM7dV6J #qldvotes #7News pic.twitter.com/mseqAitc9l
— 7 News SunshineCoast (@7NewsSC) November 25, 2017
So Labor is cautiously celebrating, but there is some way to go. There are at least a dozen seats still in play and expect some challenges in some of them.
Queensland won’t know who it’s government is for some time.
What have we learnt?
The predictions Labor would win more seats than the LNP but not necessarily enough for government were (at this stage) correct.
Preferences played a pretty huge role.
The One Nation-LNP cozy up, doesn’t appear to have worked (for a second state election)
The Greens played a pretty big role in those inner-city seats, but not necessarily enough to win a seat.
Annastacia Palaszczuk has just thanked the LNP voters who “for the first time, voted Labor”
Here is a take from the LNP party:
I don’t think it’s unfair to say this crowd has thinned out a little... Nicholls is expected to say the result is too close to call. pic.twitter.com/MQsjwWNfrG
— Michael McGowan (@mmcgowan569) November 25, 2017
“Finally, I wait the final days of counting with confidence and belief, that a stable Labor majority government will be returned to work for all Queenslanders.” Palaszczuk says in closing.
She receives three cheers.
It is going to take a few days for this result, I think.
Here is Ben Raue’s final count before he wraps up for the evening:
- 44 ALP
- 34 LNP
- 2 KAP
- 13 undecided - Labor is in a strong position in most of these seats.
Annastacia Palaszczuk has arrived
She greets the crowd by saying the 2015 election was like climbing Mount Everest – and this time is like climbing it again. She says that while they are not quite at the peak, she is confident that once the votes are counted, she’ll she be in a majority government position.
Updated
Union leader John Battams is speaking at Labor HQ.
He is taking the crowd back to 2015, when Labor won “against the odds”.
“This woman has led from the front from a minority government,” he tells the crowd.
“...It looks very much like Annastacia Palaszczuk is going to deliver government to us again.”
Still a way to go before Labor can say that for sure though.
“Onward and upward, it is going to be a long battle...I think the Premier is going to be speaking from a place of confidence...if you want to be in a position, it is our position. Better to oppose One Nation, than support One Nation,” he says.
Palaszczuk will be walking in at any moment.
As predicted, we are going to be waiting on preferences and pre-polls for this one.
Labor ruled out doing any deals. Do voters care? Did they care the last time Labor ruled out doing any deals and then took government with Peter Wellington, an independent MP who was made Speaker?
That pizza must have done the trick - my sources tell me Annastacia Pakaszczuk is in her car and is en route.
It’s about a 10 minute drive. She won’t be claiming victory, but she’ll be in a pretty good mood.
The pizza craving is catching - now Annastacia Palaszczuk is ordering pizza. Which means she is not going to be here for at least half an hour. (It was pepperoni pizza I am told, for anyone who cares)
Meanwhile, One Nation is looking like the likely victor in Mirani - Stephen Andrew, at this stage, looks like replacing Labor’s Jim Pearce.
Pearce was a pretty outspoken Labor MP, in favour of mining and Adani, and known for speaking his mind. Doesn’t look like it was enough.
There are five conventional Labor vs LNP seats which are still in play.
Bonney – Labor leading by 10 votes
Bundaberg – Labor leading by 5 votes
Burleigh - LNP leading by 268 votes
Caloundra - Labor leading by 146 votes
Pumicestone - Labor leading by 309 votes
It now appears that Labor are winning Maryborough, which brings them to 44 seats.
Updated
A LNP senior source has just come through to say that the only reason it lost this election is because in Redlands, Mount Ommaney, Glass House and Mansfield, it didn’t do the One Nation preference deal. The LNP didn’t recoup the first preference loss in those seats, I am being told.
Labor has not won this, outright. In fact, if it wants to government, the way the numbers are still coming in, it looks like a deal with Katter’s party.
Which Annastacia Palaszczuk ruled out on Friday, because of KAP’s desire to weaken the gun laws to allow the Adler shotgun through. Robbie Katter’s brother-in-law is Robert Nioa, who imports those guns. Palaszczuk also ruled out any deals, but I don’t think anyone really believed that.
So how do you resolve that? Let’s wait and see.
Updated
We haven’t seen Tim Nicholls or Deb Frecklington at the LNP event. But we have just heard pizza is being delivered to party HQ.
That’s a sign they are bedding down for a long night. It is hard to see the LNP winning from here. Still at least a dozen seats in contention though.
And it looks like things are going well at One Nation’s “party”.
Media locked out of the garage while Pauline Hanson and Steve Dickson thank volunteers #qldvotes pic.twitter.com/tVntKgnsjd
— Johanna Marie (@JohannaMarie_) November 25, 2017
One Nation entered this race as kingmakers. And to be fair, its preferences have been instrumental. But whether James Ashby or Pauline Hanson admit this or not, this has been a pretty big disappointment for them.
It’s here that I remind you that just a couple of days ago, Hanson snapped at reporters that the polls were wrong and she was “absolutely confident” that Steve Dickson would win his seat. Dickson was never going to win that seat.
Interviewed by Nine (whose reporter Darren Curtis provided the sparkling wine that Hanson used to bless the “Battler Bus”) Dickson can’t give an answer as to where the party is still holding out hope for seats, as he has been too busy with his own supporters.
Updated
Then there is this reaction:
LNP MP @GChristensenMP reaction to the result 🤔 @SkyNewsAust #QldVotes2017 pic.twitter.com/JEv8c7fUXM
— Laura Jayes (@ljayes) November 25, 2017
Dividing Queensland into two is a key part of the Katter’s platform.
It’s not possible to see the LNP winning a majority on these numbers.
They would need to win 13 of the 14 remaining seats, and in a number of these seats they are out of contention.
There are still at least 14 seats in the air, as Ben Raue has just informed us. But the messages I am receiving are telling (please, Queensland MPs, keep them coming).
“Can’t believe we didn’t learn from WA,” says one LNP source.
“The LNP have done the same thing with One Nation that we used to do with the Greens, until we realised they were eating away at our base, slowly,” says a Labor MP.
“This wash up is going to be rough,” says another LNP source.
“The feds … they have a lot to answer for. They fucked us from before this even started.”
Tellingly, Labor is not willing to call victory as yet. They are at least six seats short of a majority. The LNP may not be out, but it seems to be dirty that things are playing out this way.
Updated
I’ve gone quiet as I’ve been trying to get a grasp of the landscape.
By my count Labor holds 43 seats, the LNP holds 34 and Katter’s Australian party holds 2. This leave 14 more seats still in place.
There are four more seats where Labor is currently leading on the primary vote ahead of the LNP (Bonney, Bundaberg, Caloundra, Pumicestone).
There is another seat where Labor is leading against One Nation (Maryborough), and there are six seats where we either don’t know who has made the top two, or don’t have a correct preference count (Logan, Mirani, Maryborough, Maiwar, Cook, Rockhampton). Labor is also trailing the LNP in Burleigh.
That’s 12 seats where Labor has a chance of winning, including five where they are leading. If Labor wins four of those seats, they should win a majority.
The other two seats in play are Noosa (LNP vs independent) and Hinchinbrook (LNP vs Katter’s Australian party or One Nation).
Updated
Jackie Trad has just called victory in South Brisbane – to the cheers of Labor HQ.
She told supporters that with over 51% of the vote counted, Labor will end up on 53% (with preferences)
That is, as she admits, a decrease from the 2015 result. But she’s claiming it and to be honest, looks pretty relieved to be able to do so.
She would not be the only one. There are a lot of people exhaling at this event.
Her old sparring partner, Jeff Seeney (he of the Newman government troika, who is retiring this election) said the LNP made the right decision in preferencing Trad over the Greens. And that is saying something, coming from Seeney.
Updated
Still too close to call
Antony Green’s count has gone backwards. At one point it looked like Labor had a projected 43/44 seats. That has dropped back to 40.
Green has the LNP on 37 and 14 undeclared.
Unsurprisingly, that imminent arrival by Annastacia Palaszczuk has now been pushed back to “soon”.
It is not looking good for the LNP’s Ian Walker in Mansfield.
A marginal seat, it was one of the reasons Walker wasn’t considered as a leadership hopeful. Walker is an excellent party operative. But he hasn’t always excelled under media pressure.
Exhibit A - this press conference, which ended up in Queensland political infamy and is taught as a ‘how not to deal with the media’ example. I remember it well, as I was one of the main reporters involved (and still have LNP MPs mention it to me)
We are approaching a situation where the minor parties preferences will decide this election...while not picking up a hell of a lot (or any) seats themselves.
One Nation preferences have been instrumental. But so far they have no seats. The Greens are still fighting it out for Maiwar and South Brisbane, but looking at the numbers, it looks like the LNP preferences will get Jackie Trad across the line.
In the words of one Labor campaigner “if we pull this off , I am getting soccer mum drunk”
Jubilation at Labor HQ – Jessica Pugh has claimed victory in the LNP held seat of Mount Ommaney.
People are losing their minds, and not just because the seafood extender is back.
I’ve been banging this drum a bit, but this is a particularly hard election to call because of the rise of minor parties by my count, it’s not currently clear which two parties will come in the top two in 24 seats - which means the indicative preference count may not be selecting the correct candidates.
This list should shorten through the night, but there will be a handful of seats which cannot be decided tonight.
I’m officially dubbing the vibe here at LNP headquarters as “resigned”.
One party volunteer, who worked a booth at City Hall today, told me he was still hopeful of a “Stephen Bradbury moment”. Another supporter said the vote was “closer than I expected”. No one’s talking up the chances of an upset victory though.
You’ll note I’m not quoting anyone by name. I just had... quite the interaction with one of the LNP’s spinners, who butted in mid interview with another volunteer to ask... maybe the word’s suggest... that we were only speaking “off the record”.
Then she told me that I was “lucky to be here”, and that, apparently, journalists aren’t allowed to interview anyone in the room!
Ain’t no party like a One Nation party
Looks like the blame game has already started - I’m hearing from state LNP MPs who are quite cranky with the federal government.
Not sure the wash up of this one is going to go over well.
One Nation has done quite well in terms of votes - they’re currently sitting on 13%, which matches the final poll.
Once you factor in the 32 seats where they are not running, this brings their vote closer to the 15-18% they had been consistently polling for most of the year.
But it’s not turning into seats. Right now One Nation has not managed to cleanly win a single seat, and there aren’t many races still in play. It is possible they could end up without any seats.
I’m hearing that over at the LNP function, the mood is still “hopeful”
There is still a long way to go, but it looks like Labor’s message has been the most effective.
The incumbent government diluted their campaign down to one line in the last couple of weeks “the clear choice” between a Labor majority government and a One Nation-LNP coalition.
When I was in north Queensland earlier this campaign, I was struck by the number of people who told me they didn’t care who the government was, as long as it was a majority government. It didn’t mean they didn’t feel annoyed at the major parties, and weren’t looking for an alternative, but I would say the federal political scene has annoyed people enough they didn’t want a hung parliament.
Labor seized onto that feeling a lot earlier than the LNP. Labor also ruled out working with One Nation early on. As soon as the LNP preferenced One Nation in 50 of those 61 seats it was running in, it became almost impossible for Tim Nicholls to say his party hadn’t made a deal.
Like I said, still a way to go, but there is a pretty big mood of celebration over at Labor HQ.
Turns out Buderim did not want to “stick with Steve”.
Steve Dickson, he of the dildo and masturbation comments (he was erroneously talking about the safe schools program) will not be returning to the Queensland parliament.
What a loss for the people of Queensland. (I have covered Dickson since I was a cadet reporter on the Sunshine Coast. I’ll let you work out what tone I’m going for here)
Union leader John Battams is revving up the crowd at the Labor event...which means Annastacia Palaszczuk can only be minutes away.
Not sure we will have a result tonight though. There is some way to go with that all important preference count, which, as you know, is not continuing tomorrow. It will pick up again on Monday.
Tentative seat call:
Labor: 43
LNP: 33
South Brisbane has everyone at the Labor event is keeping an eye on. There are a lot of people on phones here. A lot.
Jackie Trad election hopes will probably rest on LNP preferences. I can tell you that there was a bit of a debate within the LNP leadership over what to do in South Brisbane, when it came to preferences. Trad, known for her progressive politics and combative parliamentary style, is not exactly a favourite within the LNP. But it turns out that a Greens MP is an even scarier thought for the LNP, so after a bit of a fight, Trad was preferenced in South Brisbane.
Updated
There is a lot of buzz at the Labor party (and not much food left).
Annastacia Palaszczuk is due very soon. She must be feeling confident she’ll be giving the “good” version of those three speeches leaders need on election night these days – those being, “we won”, “we don’t know if we’ve won”, and “well, that didn’t go to plan”.
Updated
Malcolm Roberts fails in bid for state politics
Malcolm Roberts is on ABC. He has picked up 27.8% of the primary vote with 44% of the vote counted. So no. He has not won that seat.
He says he is “encouraged” by the support he has received today. He mentions that “machine” he was up against.
Will he back in politics? Probably. He says he is even more encouraged.
Updated
The Greens have tended to mostly focus on electorates like South Brisbane – weak for the LNP, thus allowing the Greens to overtake Labor and challenge them for the seat.
That was the story in the federal seat of Melbourne, but since the LNP decided to preference Labor over the Greens it has gotten harder for the Greens in those seats.
That hasn’t stopped them winning seats like Melbourne (state and federal), Northcote and Newtown, but it’s made it harder.
The Greens are currently sitting on 35.5% of the primary voe in South Brisbane, but they likely won’t win, thanks to unfavourable LNP preferences.
The party has started to have some more success in places with a stronger conservative vote, where they can overtake Labor and win on Labor preferences. That was the story in the state seats of Balmain (2011), Prahran (2014) and Ballina (2015). In Balmain and Prahran, it wasn’t clear that the Greens had overtaken Labor until the count finished, about a week later.
That appears to be what is going on right now in Maiwar. Shadow treasurer Scott Emerson is on 40% of the primary vote, with Labor and the Greens both polling around 29%.
Labor currently leads the Greens by 70 votes. Whichever of these two parties comes out on top will have a very strong chance of toppling Emerson with the other party’s preferences.
Updated
Scott Emerson is in A LOT of trouble in Maiwar. Looks like it is being close to being called to Labor. That is a huge upset.
The Labor MP who would have contested that seat before the boundary change, environment Minister Steven Miles, moved to a safer electorate. That appears to be a gamble that has paid off for Labor.
Updated
Peter Dutton is here!
But he very politely declined to speak to me at all.
Updated
I think we can also chalk up Thuringowa as a Labor loss, with a likely pick up by One Nation. That is one of those north Queensland seats we were talking about earlier.
Looks like Labor has lost Bundaberg to the LNP.
No surprises there – it was on track as a loss for the last three weeks.
Is it even an election if there is not a wrong candidate photo?
That's BOB Katter not ROB Katter #QLDvotes pic.twitter.com/OeC3zkhMZz
— Bevan Shields (@BevanShields) November 25, 2017
For the record, Robbie Katter has held on to his seat
Would-be treasurer, and former LNP minister Scott Emerson is in trouble in his seat of Maiwar.
It was formally a safe LNP seat, but a boundary redistribution changed a few things and the Greens vote there has jumped considerably. Who comes second here will be very important in terms of whether Emerson holds on to his seat or not.
Updated
All eyes at the Labor party are on South Brisbane. Here is why:
South Brisbane (Watch this seat): @jackietrad leading (41.55%) in her seat with @Qldgreens in second (36.15%). LIVE: https://t.co/vxDhNzFpgR pic.twitter.com/4AAS0HNGuJ
— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) November 25, 2017
Few more predictions ...
49 alp, 39 lnp, 5 ind
— Paul Osborne AAP (@osbornep) November 25, 2017
I'm hoping for 3 Green seats, but certainly, at least one.
— BandieraRossa (@fran_b__) November 25, 2017
Updated
Life comes at you fast.
Former One Nation Senator Malcolm Roberts seems to have conceded to Labor in Ipswich!
He tells Channel Seven that he’s managed a swing against Labor, “but that’s not enough”.
He said he was “up against the Labor party machine”, which he said “controls Ipswich council”. He also accused Labor of running a “dishonest” campaign.
Updated
There’s quite a few seats where it’s not clear who will come in the top two.
This complicates things because it prevents the Electoral Commission conducting an indicative preference count. In some seats, all preferences will need to be distributed to work out who makes the top two.
This is the case in the inner-city seats of Maiwar (where Labor and the Greens are competing for second), McConnel (where Labor, LNP and the Greens are effectively tied for first place) and Mundingburra near Townsville where One Nation, Katter’s Australian Party and the LNP are practically tied for second place.
These seats will not likely be decided tonight. There are others which could end up in this category.
Annastacia Palaszczuk’s advance security has arrived (they tend to stand out in a crowd) so looks like we can expect her arrival soon.
The room here is starting to fill up, though I’m still not sure whether the media to real person ratio has shifted.
I thought the news that deputy premier Jackie Trad is trailing to her Greens opponent Amy MacMahon would create a bit of a stir, but it’s all pretty subdued. I did hear one woman say that “no matter what happens, I just hope Steve Dickson loses his seat”.
In canapé news, the vegetarian rice paper rolls are delicious, and there’s also some kind of cheese and mushroom risotto ball doing the rounds that I’m interested in revisiting. There’s also a roast beef looking thing that I’ve steered clear for viscosity-related reasons.
While the LNP directed preferences to One Nation in most of the seats the minor party is contesting, One Nation instead chose to preference against the sitting members in numerous seats.
An example of a seat where this might have had an effect is Redlands.
The Labor vote has stayed steady, while the Greens vote is up by 4.7%.
The big change was a 19% swing against the LNP and a 20.6% vote for One Nation.
You might think these One Nation votes would mostly flow back to the LNP, but Labor is on track for a 12% swing after preferences - suggesting many of those voters have chosen Labor instead.
In LNP leader Tim Nicholls’ seat of Clayfield, he is only slightly ahead on the preference count.
The Labor and Greens combined primary vote is currently over 54%, so if Greens preferences flow strongly to Labor they could well win.
This would fit with a pattern of Labor gaining ground in urban Queensland.
Malcolm Roberts is on Nine and says “on the ground it was a fantastic response, people were really happy to see me here”.
He was just told that at the moment he only holds about 23% of the vote, compared to Labor’s holding 47% primary vote. He doesn’t seem to accept that and says that Labor has run a “very dishonest campaign … and they have just been smearing people”.
He thinks that preferences may change things. (Narrator: they would not.)
Updated
There are a handful of seats in the Gold Coast and in southern Brisbane where it appears that Labor has gained swings and potentially gained seats from the LNP, including in Theodore, Bonney, Gaven, Redlands, Chatsworth.
These seats could help offset any regional losses.
Those predictions are still coming in, and Labor is still in favour for leading a majority government.
Labor: 51 seats
— ▌│█║▌║▌║ Rod Moffatt (@Ozlandscapes) November 25, 2017
Labor: 51 seats
— ▌│█║▌║▌║ Rod Moffatt (@Ozlandscapes) November 25, 2017
Updated
Senior LNP shadow minister Scott Emerson is facing a strong challenge from both Labor and the Greens in Maiwar. At the moment the LNP vote is down by about 10%, with Labor and the Greens both benefiting.
The Greens are 3.4% behind Labor at the moment – whichever of these two parties who comes out on top will have a strong chance at winning the seat.
The seat of McConnel (previously Brisbane Central) is held by Labor minister Grace Grace. Grace appears to have improved her position against the LNP, but she has lost 3% of her primary vote, with the Greens gaining a 9% swing.
The Greens are 4.5% behind Labor.
Labor will probably hold on here, but the Greens have clearly gained a big swing.
The Greens are also challenging Labor deputy premier Jackie Trad in South Brisbane.
At the moment they have gained a swing of 13%, easily overtaking the LNP.
LNP preferences are favouring Labor over the Greens, but the Greens are still in with a shot.
Updated
Bit of comfort eating going on at the Labor event. The prawn crackers, calamari rings and some sort of seafood extender sticks, have come out and there is some very manic chewing going on, while the eyes never leave the screen.
David Crisafulli, who had been earmarked as a future leader of the LNP and is a former Newman government minister, moved from his north Queensland seat to the safe LNP seat of Broadwater (toppling the incumbent MP Verity Barton) just told Nine he thinks he was a “bloke in a hurry” the first time round. He lost his seat after the Newman government wipeout, but you’ll see him on the floor of parliament again, unless the voters of Broadwater have had a complete change of heart in their voting habits.
We’ve noticed a trend of the LNP losing ground in marginal seats like Mirani, Whitsunday and Mansfield while Labor has either gained ground or suffered much smaller swings.
With about 6% counted, One Nation is not far behind Labor in Mirani, and One Nation is leading the primary vote ahead of the LNP in Gympie.
One Nation is also polling in the top two in Ipswich (where former senator Malcolm Roberts is running), Bundaberg, Kurwongbah and Condamine.
It appears that One Nation leader Steve Dickson is in third place in Buderim.
Here are some of your predictions:
Independent Sandy Bolton might knock off LNPs Glen Elmes in Noosa.
— Noely (@YaThinkN) November 25, 2017
60-34
— tqft (@tqft9999) November 25, 2017
I’m worried Bundaberg will be mad enough to have elected Jane Truscott, PHON 😩
— Cherie Lee 🍷 (@leecd60) November 25, 2017
Here is one of my predictions, based on heading out to Ipswich this campaign, plus the fact that Labor holds it by 16% – Malcolm Roberts will not be a member of the Queensland parliament.
Not empirical evidence by any means. Call it more of a gut feeling.
So, with Steve Dickson most likely out, Roberts most likely waiting for his chance to head the One Nation senate ticket again, and Sam Cox, the next most experienced MP on PHON’s ticket (a former LNP MP) not expected to win Burdekin … who leads the One Nation MPs in the parliament? Jim Savage?
Updated
So, now that the polls are closed, the food is out, and the vote has started – hit me with your predictions. I am looking through the comment section when I can, and reading your tweets.
Things are heating up at the Labor event. A tiny fraction of the vote has been counted so far - about 0.8 per cent, but it is enough to get people excited.
The figures so far are very small, but we are seeing some trends.
Unsurprisingly, One Nation is polling very well in the regional seats where most votes are coming from, but we can’t say yet how big that trend will be. The next half-hour will be crucial.
An update on the canapes situation at the Labor party (just keeping up with Michael) - there have been fish fingers, spring rolls and sausage rolls. There is also no sparkling wine at the bar. (update. There is sparkling wine) and also sandwiches.
The more you know.
Updated
A secret squirrel missive just came in
This is from inside the Labor party, so take it with a grain of salt. Because I still don’t think anyone can predict these preference flows accurately.
But they say that internal party polling had Labor picking up 52 seats for the last week.
That is well above the magic number of 47. And I think might be including some south-east pick ups that aren’t certainties. Still, just passing it on.
And we can’t forget the Katters. Bob’s son Robbie leads the Queensland Katter’s Australian party. He is expected to win back his seat, along with his colleague, former LNP MP Shane Knuth. They might pick up a third - the Nine/Galaxy poll had them at 9% state wide.
Updated
The Greens came in at 9% on that same poll. They are considered a chance in three, and a strong chance in two – South Brisbane and Maiwar.
Updated
The Nine News/Galaxy poll had One Nation at 13% state wide, a pretty big drop from 1998, when it was at 23%. Keep in mind that the party is only running in 61 of the 93 electorates, which lowers that primary vote figure.
Updated
Can an election even be called, if Antony Green doesn’t call it?
But the ABC election analyst has suffered a setback – his famous touchscreen isn’t working. He is using a mouse.
STOP. EVERYTHING. @AntonyGreenABC's touchscreen isn't working. On. Election. Night.
— Jamie McKinnell (@jamie86) November 25, 2017
Election night is ruined.#QLDvotes #QldPol pic.twitter.com/AKqvzqVseV
Updated
The LNP party doesn’t officially start until 6.30pm (Queensland time) so right now it’s mostly just media types milling about awkwardly and television journalists reporting back to their studios about... I’m not sure what.
Still, the vibe doesn’t exactly scream victory. It’s feels like quite a small room to hold a post-election party in, and there’s a big screen that right now is just displaying the LNP’s logo. I’m not drawing any conclusions though!
The leader Tim Nicholls is apparently expected at about 9pm, but that’s always a moveable feast.
No sight of any canapés as yet, but I’ll keep you posted.
Chills! #qldelection
— Michael McGowan (@mmcgowan569) November 25, 2017
(To be fair, the LNP function doesn’t start for another 20 minutes). pic.twitter.com/eoIkAFlDuJ
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Can I just say, on a personal note, the most exciting thing about polls closing (apart from just loving election nights) is that the number of times I have to hear the phrase “clear choice” has just dropped by about 1,000%.
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Polls are closed
Let the count begin!
And James Ashby doesn’t believe the exit poll. He also believes that Steve Dickson will retain the seat of Buderim.
He points out that Dickson has 10 years of history in that area. He was a local councillor, before he jumped to state politics.
Last I heard from party sources, Dickson was polling at about 16 per cent primary. The good burghers of Buderim tend to vote LNP in my experience, no matter who sits below the corflute. But maybe I’ll be proved wrong.
Queensland’s former deputy premier, Jeff Seeney (Newman government) who is retiring this election, is also on the Nine panel. He just told viewers there is a “special place in hell reserved for traitors”.
I am going to take a wild guess and say that is directed to his former cabinet colleague, Steve Dickson, who after missing out on a place in the shadow ministry, and launching a failed coup to replace Lawrence Springborg as LNP leader with Tim Mander, defected to One Nation.
Fun, fun, fun!
The polls are closing in minutes.
Things are about to get real.
First exit poll
The Nine/Galaxy exit poll is out – 52 to 48 to Labor.
This time last election, this poll was the closest to the actual result – a massive swing against the LNP that at the time no one quite believed – it ended up turfing the ruling LNP out of government.
There are smiles at the Labor event. But there are still drinks being tightly held.
Annastacia Palaszczuk herself is not due here until 8.30pm to 9pm. Tim Nicholls will be at his party around the same time. Mostly because both need to work out what speeches they’ll be giving.
But we may not get a result tonight. The Electoral Commission of Queensland has announced it won’t be counting votes (preferences) on Sunday, so a result is not expected until Monday at the earliest – unless there is some massive shift in the primary votes.
Exclusive @9NewsQueensland exit poll predicting @AnnastaciaMP to retain power. News gives Labor function a big boost early in the night. pic.twitter.com/lx4pTpNrvq
— Joel Dry (@JoelDry9) November 25, 2017
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For the political history buffs, when Annastacia Palaszczuk won the 2015 election (with the support of independent Peter Wellington) she became the first woman premier to be elected from opposition. If she pulls off tonight, she’ll become the first female political leader to be elected as premier, twice.
There you go. Clarified
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Things are starting to get antsy at the Labor event as they wait for the exit polls.
There are a lot of people gripping drinks with their eyeballs glued to broadcasts.
For those playing along at home, James Ashby, Pauline Hanson’s chief adviser, is taking part on the Nine Network panel, so that should be fun viewing.
Earlier today Sky News was reporting the same numbers as Galaxy – 52-48 to Labor.
.@David_Speers brings you #QLDVotes live now on @SkyNewsAust. Which party do you expect to succeed? LIVE BLOG: https://t.co/vxDhNzFpgR pic.twitter.com/6IxMeXnzgx
— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) November 25, 2017
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GetUp have released some polling on the Adani issue.
From their release:
Exit polling in key electorates so far shows a clear majority of voters in every seat GetUp polled wants the new Queensland Government to block the billion dollar loan. This includes:
Maiwar: 73%
Everton: 53%
Mt Ommaney: 63%
Mansfield: 69%
“MPs and candidates should take heed: the majority of Queenslanders do not want billionaire Gautam Adani to get a $1billion bailout,” GetUp campaigner Ellen Roberts said.
*ends*
They are all LNP seats. Coal mining is not popular in the south-east, particularly those inner-Brisbane seats. No surprise there. But it is popular in central Queensland and north Queensland, which thinks it will usher in a new jobs boom.
It’s made the issue particularly fraught for the major political parties.
Cricket fans also had to vote - some went before the game, while the Gabba, where the first Ashes test is being played, also had a polling booth. Because nothing can ever stop cricket. Except for rain. And tea breaks. And a terrible Australian side.
Polls close in about an hour, so let’s take a look at some of the scenes from today
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G’day from the Sunshine State!
Pretty soon I’ll wash off the sunscreen from day three at the Gabba and head to the LNP’s election function in Brisbane, where Tim Nicholls will be hoping to make a victory speech later on tonight. To do so, though, the LNP are going to need to defy most of the recent polling, which has had Labor sitting marginally ahead.
As Amy has already pointed out though, pretty much no one is confident about how this election is going to wind up. The tight polling numbers, the reintroduction of compulsory preferential voting and, of course, the spectre of One Nation has made everything a little too close to call.
If the LNP are to pull off an upset though, there are a few key seats they need to reach the magic number 47. First they need to hang onto what the already have; southside Brisbane seats of Mansfield and Mount Ommaney, which are now marginally Labor, are at risk, and so are marginal Gold Coast seats such as Bonney or Gaven.
Then there’s where they need to win. There are a whole bunch of coastal Queensland seats held marginally by Labor – Maryborough, Bundaberg, Burdekin, Mirani and Keppel – that the LNP will hope to see fall their way, plus the seats around Townsville and Cairns.
Really though, to win in an upset, the LNP are going to need One Nation preferences to fall their way, and that’s where the real uncertainty lies.
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We have entered tonight with the polls pointing to Labor just flopping over the line, with most sitting around 52% to 48% on the two-party preferred measure.
Neither party is willing to claim confidence in any result as yet, and that’s because of the role preferences are expected to play. With Queenslanders now having to tick every box, following a Labor move designed to hobble the Greens, which failed to take into account the return of One Nation, pollsters, both public and internal are still trying to work out where those preferences will go.
One Nations support sits at about 12% statewide, but it is only running in 61 seats. Head to some of the regional areas and its primary sits in the 20s for some electorates, taking from both major parties, and leaving those three-point contests impossible to work out.
For the record, Pauline Hanson, who has been the face of the One Nation campaign, despite not actually running it (leader Steve Dickson who defected from the LNP is not expected to win back his seat, despite his “Stick with Steve” campaign) was feeling confident in the lead-up to polls closing.
“This is going to be the real beginning and resurgence of One Nation,” she said from the Sunshine Coast, where Dickson’s seat is situated (about an hour north of Brisbane).
“We’re going to win quite a few seats here in Queensland and I think that’s going to carry across to the next federal election too.”
“I’m not saying [how many], I’ve got a number in my head … but I think there is strong support for One Nation,” she added.
AAP reports Hanson believed support was as good as in 1998 when the party won 23% of the vote and 11 seats. (By 2000, there were no longer any MPs sitting under the One Nation party name.)
“This is as strong, if not stronger,” she said.
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Speaking of the 2015 election, which saw Labor take power back after being reduced to seven seats at the 2012 poll, here are some of the margins we are talking about.
The LNP’s most marginal seats include:
Caloundra – 4.4%
Clayfield – 4.2%
Theodore – 4.1%
Bonney – 3.8% (newly created)
Hinchinbrook – 3.7%
Aspley – 3.2%
Gaven – 2.5%
Redlands – 2.1%
Maiwar – 2.1%
Chatsworth – 2.0%
Lockyer – 1.9%
Everton – 1.4%
Toowoomba North – 1.0%
Whitsunday – 0.7%
Glass House – 0.7%
Mansfield – 0.6%
Mount Ommaney – 0.4%
Burdekin – 0.1%
Labor’s most marginal electorates include:
Keppel – 3.8%
Macalister – 3.8% (new seat)
Mirani – 3.6%
Ferny Grove – 3.6%
Cooper – 3.4%
McConnel – 3.1%
Barron River – 2.6%
Mundingburra – 2.3%
Maryborough – 2.1%
Pumicestone – 1.2% (MP was disendorsed before election was called)
Springwood – 0.9%
Bundaberg – 0.6%
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For those wondering, I am a Queenslander (by way of South Australia) and state politics here used to be my patch. I covered the historic Queensland election when Campbell Newman stormed to victory in landslide and was there when Queensland flipped just as hard the other way and booted him out less than three years later.
There is a lot people get wrong about Queensland. It is the nation’s largest decentralised state, so politicians have to play to the regions as much as they do the city.
That can be almost impossible considering that Sydney is closer to Brisbane than Cairns is. It’s also a state that is very much reliant on outside factors for its economy, which is mainly rocks, crops and tourism. A series of natural disasters, combined with a downturn in the resources industry, combined with the natural gas industry moving from construction to production with its projects have hit the state hard.
But for all of that, Queensland keeps its chin up. The Labor government seized on Malcolm Turnbull’s innovation agenda and went on a research and development spree, building on work started by the Newman government. It is working towards a 50 per cent renewable energy target by 2030 (for now) and has maintained ownership of its electricity assets, which has meant price increases, while still biting, are not hitting quite as hard as the rest of the nation.
It surprised a lot of people by mostly voting yes in the marriage equality survey. Some of its most conservative electorates – including Toowoomba – have become some of the biggest refugee settlement success stories. Brisbane, for all the jokes about its slogan as a “new world city”, still contains affordable housing and has managed to quietly develop a food, bar and entertainment scene which often surprises.
But it still lives in Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s shadow. His mark is still all over the city, from the buildings to the expressway which lines the river and dams which dot the coast. It also produced Bob Katter, Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer, each of whom have managed to tap into a disgruntlement or feeling of being left behind – a product of that decentralised population.
Put it all together and you have a state that often betrays the mood of the nation. It’s why the feds are watching the Queensland election so closely. It’s also why we haven’t seen too many federal politicians. People are over politics here, more than most people.
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Good evening and welcome to a special Queensland election edition of Politics Live
It’s pineapple politics at its finest, as Labor leader Annastacia Palaszczuk hopes she’s done enough for voters to give her a second term, while the LNP is hoping just as hard that enough time has passed for voters to forget Tim Nicholls’ role in the Newman government.
Throw in compulsory preferential voting for the first time, a renewed One Nation interest in the regions and the Greens looking like a chance of winning a seat in the state’s unicameral parliament for the first time, and it looks like the major parties are in for a wild ride.
No one knows how this election will play out. The magic number is 47, for outright majority government. Labor is sitting on 41 seats after disendorsing an MP just moments before calling the election. The LNP holds 42 seats. Both are looking at losing electorates to One Nation, particularly in the north and central regions, with some of the outer urban seats looking a little shaky as well.
The LNP’s non-deal deal with One Nation, in which it has preferenced the party in 50 of the 61 seats it is running in, as well as admitting, in the most roundabout of ways that it will work with the party in the event of a hung parliament (although Nicholls still can’t say yes or no to that question) looks like it will have damaged its chances in parts of the southeast, which are more socially liberal than One Nation would like.
Palaszczuk’s insistence that she would rather see Labor in opposition than work with One Nation has been seized on by Pauline Hanson (who, as a federal senator is not running in this election, but remains One Nation’s main drawcard), as proof Labor doesn’t respect Queenslanders.
Meanwhile, with a state budget heading towards $81bn in debt, a downturn in the resources economy, and a ballooning unemployment rate, neither major has been able to go on a spending spree. Adani dominated Labor’s first week of campaigning, until Palaszczuk announced she was vetoing the $1bn Naif loan, after it was revealed her partner had been helping Adani with its loan application.
Palaszczuk said she had learnt of a smear campaign and decided the easiest thing to do was veto the loan application all together. That dominated the second week. The LNP then announced its preference decision and Labor used it as a campaign reset, with the remainder of the campaign entirely focused on One Nation.
Labor announced four new taxes, it says are aimed at the 1% in the dying days of the campaign, but no new debt reduction plan. The LNP announced a government efficiency measures, which included no forced redundancies in the public service, and a debt reduction plan that saves $400m more than Labor. One Nation released a single page with six dot points which it said showed $10bn in savings, but included federal funds and money that doesn’t yet exist in the Queensland budget.
So in the end, this entire campaign boils down to One Nation. How many seats it will get, where it’s preferences will flow, and just who was interested in voting for them.
I’ve travelled across a lot of this state over the past few weeks and it seems to want a majority government. But it’s frustrated at the choices. How that will play out in the polls is anyone’s guess.
But sit back, relax, grab your Queensland tipple of choice and settle in for what is going to be a wild ride no matter what the result. Michael McGowan is on deck helping me cover this – you can find him on Twitter here and as always, you’ll get me at @amyremeikis. I’d love to hear from you (and it may be the only thing that gets me through this night) so please, play along!
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