An upstart conservative party that has never previously held power has swept to victory in Quebec provincial elections, in a result proving that – for the first time in nearly 50 years – separatism is no longer the dominant political issue in Canada’s only majority French-speaking province.
Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), which was founded in 2011, took 74 of the province’s 125 seats, defeating the province’s establishment parties and upending decades of political precedent in the process.
Led by François Legault, formerly a fervent believer in Quebec separation, the CAQ rode to victory in last night’s election on the promise to keep the province in Canada.
“There are many Quebecers who put aside a debate that has divided us for 50 years. There are many Quebecers who demonstrated that it’s possible for opponents to work together for tomorrow’s Quebec,” Legault said during his victory speech.
Legault is favour of reducing Quebec’s immigration levels, earning him praise from French far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who tweeted: “Quebecers voted for less immigration.”
The CAQ victory comes at the expense of the Liberals and the Parti Québécois, who have collectively governed Quebec for 48 years. Both suffered their worst defeats in terms of popular vote in their respective histories.
“Quebecers have clearly indicated their desire for change,” Liberal leader and former Quebec premier Philippe Couillard said in a concession speech
Unlike previous campaigns in the province, bread-and-butter issues like environment, healthcare and the economy – along with a divisive debate over immigration – completely overshadowed the issue of separatism.
And in a province long divided between federalists and sovereignists – as those in Quebec’s separatist movement call themselves – the CAQ’s victory is profound.
“This is the kind of generational shift that we haven’t seen since the 1970s,” said Christian Bourque, from Léger, a Montreal-based polling firm, who added that the results will result in a radical reorganization of Quebec’s separatist movement.
The Parti Québécois (PQ), long the dominant separatist political force in Quebec, will be either pushed into obsolescence or forced to merge with another new party, the left-wing Quebec Solidaire. “I don’t see how the Parti Québécois can survive what happened last night,” he said.
The PQ has twice staged referendums to remove Quebec from Canada, losing both efforts in 1980 and 1995. The federalist Liberals have won successive elections by exploiting the existential threat posed by the PQ.
The CAQ believes the obsession has stymied Quebec’s economic and political progression; Legault has promised to instead focus on the province’s high dropout rate and languishing productivity.
Legault is himself a former PQ minister who once wrote a speculative budget underscoring the necessity for Quebec separation. He now believes Quebec can thrive in Canada – provided the federal government is open to handing over certain federal powers to Quebec.
Exactly how Legault and the CAQ will negotiate with the federal government remains an open question. The spectre of losing Quebec has brought the province powers in culture, immigration and healthcare, among others. It is arguably the reason why Quebec receives outsized transfer payments from other provinces. By disavowing the pursuit of sovereignty, Legault has lost a powerful cudgel.
Compounding Legault’s challenge is Quebec’s slackening demographic and political weight within Canada. Quebec’s population growth is eclipsed by neighbouring Ontario and several Western provinces. Nearly 17 % of its population is aged 65 and over, the highest outside of Canada’s Atlantic provinces, according to Statistics Canada.
Not coincidentally, the province is in the midst of labour shortage.
Despite this, Legault has vowed to cut immigration by 20%, saying current level of about 50,000 yearly immigrants poses a threat to the French language and culture. Legault recently pledged to ban the wearing of religious clothing by anyone in a position of authority, including police officers, teachers and judges.
Despite the CAQ victory, the sovereignty movement is not dead. Quebec Solidaire, aparty founded in 2006, more than tripled its seat count. Avowedly socialist with a platform that includes free kindergarten-to-gown education, Quebec Solidaire believes separation is necessary to free Quebec from the “petrostate” of Canada, as co-leader Manon Massé recently put it.
