I have a controversial opinion within the world of NFL media: An analyst’s preseason predictions should be celebrated and confirmed as correct if they hold true over the first four weeks of the season.
While I understand your immediate and vehement pushback—had I nominated the Saints as a Super Bowl contender last year, I would not have looked inaccurate after early blowout wins over the Panthers and Cowboys—my reasoning is that beyond this point in time most of what we have gleaned in calls, research and film watching melts into the inevitability that only four or five teams can win the Super Bowl based on the overall depth of their rosters and the talent level of their quarterbacks. It would be quite boring if, every summer, we just went on television and podcasts and in our written columns and said: “None of this matters because of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.”
It’s almost like the Shanahan coaching tree life philosophy, which, and I’m paraphrasing a bit here, essentially boils down to: Who cares? We’re all going to die.
If the Colts get off to a hot start and I said in June that I like the Colts, I want to cash out now and take my prize, thank you very much.
And maybe that’s part of the reason we’re awarding players through the quarter mark of the NFL season (made more complicated by that pesky 17th game and my inability to do math). The end of the year will be different. Much different. But that should not take away from the greatness occurring now.
With that in mind, here’s what my theoretical ballot would look like:
MVP
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
While Allen will ultimately leave my second choice, Dak Prescott, by the wayside when the Bills approach playoff contention and the Cowboys collapse under the weight of their owners’ glaring indifference, both of these quarterbacks have been a force with Prescott remaining in the conversation thanks to a series of breathless high-wire performances in shootout games that can not be replicated over the course of a season. Prescott threw the singular best ball of the season to set up overtime against the Packers in Week 4 and has completed nearly 80% of his passes in each of the past two weeks. He throttled a Packers defense without the help of CeeDee Lamb.
That said, Allen has been the picture of quarterback efficiency and the Bills’ success rate is staggering when you factor in the utter likelihood of a drive ending in points. Buffalo is third in points per play, second in first downs logged and first in EPA per play. At this point, Allen may be at the peak of his physical powers and, simultaneously, the height of his comfort level in the offense.
Offensive Player of the (Quarter) Year
Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams
Stafford’s starlit fourth quarter against the Colts—10 men on the field notwithstanding—underscores what has been a steadily incredible season from the best-when-doubted 37-year-old. Despite the fear of a debilitating preseason back injury, Stafford has been thriving amid increased pressure rates each week. Stafford is piloting an effective offense that should be undefeated, had it not been for a catastrophic special teams breakdown against the Eagles. The Rams are a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of both rushing attempts and efficiency, which highlights just how much of the load Stafford has taken on.
Defensive Player of the (Quarter) Year
Micah Parsons, edge, Green Bay Packers
This is typically a pressures and sacks or shutdown cornerback award. Parsons leads the NFL in pressures and also leads Brandon Thorn’s wonderful true pressure rate metric, which means he leads the NFL in plays that are affecting the outcome of a quarterback’s time in the pocket. I gave him the slight edge over other players vying for the lead in pressures because Parsons is still a part-time player in this defense as he gets up to speed. Parsons is still about 20% behind his usage rate in a typical healthy Cowboys season, which means we can safely project a higher return throughout the year, assuming Parsons remains healthy and Jeff Hafley remains a versatile defensive coordinator willing to put Parsons in different advantageous positions.
Offensive Rookie of the (Quarter) Year
Armand Membou, T, New York Jets
Membou still hasn’t been called for a penalty and has allowed only one sack. The Jets’ first-round pick has been the consensus top offensive lineman selected in the first round, and, I might add, with an additional degree of difficulty. I don’t think we talk enough about the skills of players operating with quarterbacks who have incredible but nontraditional skill sets. Membou had to face off against T.J. Watt, for example, without a locked-in idea of where Justin Fields was in the pocket. This is difficult, and Membou has been a complete anchor on this otherwise struggling Jets outfit.
Defensive Rookie of the (Quarter) Year
Jacob Parrish, DB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Parrish is allowing an opposing quarterback rating of just 75. The incredibly sticky nickel defender is also coming into his own as a huge generator of pressure in Todd Bowles’s devious Buccaneers’ defense. In Week 3, Parrish had four pressures and a sack, more importantly, throwing a bucket of cold water onto offensive coordinators who now have to deal with his missile instincts for the quarterback. The third-round pick out of Kansas State is part of an immediate impactful draft class for the Buccaneers, a team that has reshaped its secondary via the selections of Parrish and Ben Morrison. This has allowed Antoine Winfield to expand his powers and become one of the most elite game-altering secondary players in the NFL.
Coach of the (Quarter) Year
Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts
I think those of us who have been watching the Colts since Steichen’s arrival can attest to the volume of open players that existed over the past two years. The issue has been getting them the football. Add in talented rookie tight end Tyler Warren, who has been excellent as a pass blocker and a versatile offensive weapon that can contribute as a rusher, as well as a dominant pass catcher and run routes from nearly any position on the field, and you have a team preparing to be stripped for parts before the 2025 season making a legitimate playoff run.
Steichen remains one of the best rhythm play-callers in the NFL and has helped revive the confidence of former first-round pick Daniel Jones, which is often a key factor in winning these awards.
Assistant of the (Quarter) Year
Anthony Campanile, defensive coordinator, Jacksonville Jaguars
Michael Clay, special teams coordinator, Philadelphia Eagles
Klint Kubiak, offensive coordinator, Seattle Seahawks
(Tie)
Jacksonville’s defensive turnaround may seem like a simple rebound principle, given how starved this unit was for turnovers in years prior. However, Campanile comes from a takeaway machine in Green Bay and has awakened a potential-rich defense that has Devin Lloyd in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation. Jacksonville’s 13 turnovers forced through four games is already better than the total number forced in 2024 and is outpacing the Jaguars’ historically good 2017 defense, which transported a Blake Bortles quarterbacked offense to within a bad call of the Super Bowl. Campanile is a charismatic coach with experience at all levels and has established himself in the upcoming NFL coaching carousel.
Clay, meanwhile, has designed three critical blocks for the Eagles’ punt and field goal teams, two of which have gone for touchdowns and one of which was a time-expiring, game-winning touchdown. Clay’s unit has excelled not only by placing beastly defensive linemen on pressure-point areas of opposing block units, but by artfully dragging the personal protector away from the shortest avenue to a punt block.
Kubiak is piloting the league’s No. 6 dropback EPA offense but, like Campinale, truly stands out when comparing his unit’s current success rate to what we saw a year ago. Mike Macdonald made the unorthodox move to push away his first-year offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, in favor of Kubiak, who, in fairness, had a similarly explosive start as the coordinator of the Saints in 2024. Darnold is third in quarterback success rate among every-down starters and sixth in EPA. However, that is only a small part of the equation, as Seattle’s offense has begun to match the defense’s layered complexities, making already talented stars such as Jaxon Smith-Njigba elite, game-altering prospects.
Executive of the (Quarter) Year
Jason Licht, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
You would have to get David Walker in the fourth round to hit your first member of Licht’s 2025 draft class that is not an immediate contributor to the Buccaneers. That, in addition to Licht’s layering of the offensive line, the addition of the immediately explosive Emeka Egbuka in the first round and the building around of Baker Mayfield, who is the most affordable elite quarterback in the NFL, and you have the trappings of a team that continues to thrive in the post-Brady Arians era. While Andrew Berry would be a close second given the Browns’ stellar draft class, Tampa Bay’s track record of success warrants top billing.
Protector of the (Quarter) Year
Penei Sewell, tackle, Detroit Lions
Joe Alt, tackle, Los Angeles Chargers
(Tie)
I am sure I’ve stepped in it with the Alt nod, but let me make my case. I think we can agree that Sewell is on another planet right now. However, when Alt exited the Giants game in Week 4 with a high ankle sprain, we saw just how quickly that offense’s passing game evaporated. The Chargers were tortured by a Giants’ pass rush that couldn’t create havoc against the Cowboys two weeks prior, despite leading in a series of very obvious passing situations. Alt has switched positions and was a stabilizing force after the loss of Rashawn Slater. Now, is he playing better than Jordan Mailata? No. But do we have a vivid look at what the team is like with and without Alt? Yes.
Sewell is developing into one of the more athletic tackles I’ve ever seen. His matchup against Myles Garrett from Week 4 should be hung in a museum as one of the great edge vs. anchor tackle battles in the modern NFL. His ability to swallow up any sign of stress or difficulty is an immeasurable advantage to a traditional drop-back passer who isn’t inclined to run with the football.
Comeback Player of the (Quarter) Year
Christian McCaffrey, running back, San Francisco 49ers
McCaffrey is barely edging out an increasingly competitive field for what is–without question–the silliest NFL tentpole award. After a debilitating double-leg Achilles issue last year, McCaffrey is the only player in the NFL thus far to have eclipsed 100 touches and is third in the NFL in receiving. The 29-year-old is one of just four NFL players to have accumulated more than 100 scrimmage yards per game and is averaging more than seven yards per touch on receptions. In an offense that has seen nearly all of its valued playmakers disappear and an offensive line severely underperform as a run blocking unit, McCaffrey is one of the lone offensive factors keeping the 49ers in a very realistic playoff hunt. Aidan Hutchinson, Daniel Jones and Dak Prescott remain hot on his heels, though.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Quarter Season NFL Awards: MVP, Offensive Player of the Year and More.
