Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ:QCOM) is gaining momentum as robust smartphone demand, stronger Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone 17 chip share, and expanding AI opportunities position the company for near-term growth.
• QCOM is taking a hit from negative sentiment. Get the complete picture here.
The chipmaker's handset, automotive and IoT segments are expected to outperform forecasts through early 2026, while its new AI data center products could further accelerate revenue diversification in the years ahead.
JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee maintained an Overweight rating on Qualcomm and raised the price forecast from $200 to $210.
Chatterjee sees Qualcomm well-positioned for near-term upside, supported by stronger handset demand and resilient fundamentals.
Also Read: Qualcomm Unveils New AI Chips To Compete In Data Center Race
The analyst expects Qualcomm's handset volumes to outperform consensus estimates, driven by robust global smartphone sales — especially in the premium segment — and a stronger-than-expected position in Apple's iPhone 17 lineup.
He projects Qualcomm's modem share in the new iPhones will reach about 90%, up from the previously assumed 70%, as Apple's in-house modem-equipped iPhone Air is expected to represent only a small share of total shipments. These trends, Chatterjee noted, should push both revenue and earnings modestly above Wall Street forecasts for the next two quarters.
For fiscal fourth-quarter 2025, the analyst estimates revenue of $10.9 billion, above consensus of $10.7 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.90 versus the $2.85 consensus estimate. He expects Qualcomm CDMA Technologies (chip) sales at $9.5 billion and licensing revenue near $1.35 billion.
Chatterjee expects handset revenue to climb 7% quarter-over-quarter, ahead of guidance, supported by stronger smartphone demand and higher Apple market share.
For fiscal first-quarter 2026, the analyst anticipates further strength, forecasting revenue of $11.9 billion, ahead of the Street's $11.6 billion view, with EPS of $3.34 versus expectations of $3.25. Again, he attributes the upside to sustained handset demand and continued share gains with Apple.
He remains cautious for fiscal second-quarter 2026, projecting a potential $800 million headwind as Samsung Electronics Co, Ltd (OTC:SSNLF) reintroduces its in-house Exynos chipsets in the Galaxy S26 lineup.
Chatterjee expects Qualcomm's share of Samsung's flagship devices to return to roughly 70%, similar to the S24 generation, which could bring quarterly revenue down to $10.6 billion, below the $10.9 billion consensus.
Beyond handsets, the analyst expects Qualcomm's automotive and IoT businesses to grow more than 20% in fiscal 2026, contributing to diversification. The analyst also highlights Qualcomm's AI datacenter products (AI200 and AI250) as key catalysts that could drive future revenue expansion, estimating data center revenue could reach $1.4 billion by fiscal 2027.
Citing the company's accelerating diversification and solid near-term growth drivers, his rerating reflected optimism over the firm's expanding AI and datacenter opportunities.
QCOM Price Action: Qualcomm shares were down 2.98% at $175.26 at the time of publication on Tuesday.
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