Kyle Shanahan in his first draft as the 49ers head coach in 2017 passed on Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes, instead opting for Stanford defensive lineman Solomon Thomas with the No. 3 pick. And after losing the Super Bowl less than three years later with Jimmy Garoppolo under center, Shanahan and John Lynch opted against Tom Brady in free agency in the 2020 offseason.
The luxury of hindsight doesn’t reflect well on those decisions. But will it cause Shanahan to change his process when it comes to finding high-level quarterback play in 2021?
It seems to reason Garoppolo, and his 22-8 record as the starter, is the most likely quarterback for the 49ers this upcoming season.
There was logic to sticking with Garoppolo last spring instead of landing the 43-year-old Brady. Garoppolo helped take the team to the Super Bowl in his first full season as the starter, playing well enough in big games during the regular season for Shanahan to think his quarterback could take a significant leap in 2020.
But that plan hit the skids when Garoppolo suffered a high ankle sprain in the first quarter of Week 2. The 49ers finished 6-10 and missed the playoffs for the third time in Shanahan’s four seasons.
Brady, in his 19th healthy season as a starting quarterback, is going to his 10th Super Bowl (no other quarterback has been to more than five) after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took down the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on Sunday.
Even if choosing Garoppolo was a sound decision at the time, Brady taking Tampa Bay to the Super Bowl in his first season is a bad look for Lynch and Shanahan, at the least.
Garoppolo’s chances at developing into a championship quarterback seem far less certain a year removed from his Super Bowl. Meanwhile, more quarterbacks elsewhere seem to be unsettled with their status quo. It might lead to unprecedented changes throughout the league this offseason, which could include San Francisco.
It was reported by NFL Media on Saturday that Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions are set to part ways leading to an expected trade. And after Brady took down Rodgers on Sunday, Green Bay’s presumptive MVP caused a Wisconsin firestorm when he said, “A lot of guys’ futures that are uncertain, myself included.”
Rodgers is known for being calculated and measured. Many observers familiar believe Rodgers’ statement was a warning shot to Packers’ brass to make the moves needed to get Rodgers a second Super Bowl title to add to his Hall of Fame resume. Rodgers signaling unhappiness with the Packers has reopened the social media and talk radio floodgates.
Should the 49ers try trading for Watson, Stafford or Rodgers and ditch Garoppolo?
Easier said than done.
The 49ers have a slew of free agents and not a ton of cap space. The most Shanahan and Lynch have given up in trades (not including sending DeForest Buckner to Indianapolis last March) were second-round picks for Garoppolo and pass rusher Dee Ford. They seem unlikely to give up first-round draft picks with needs at cornerback, defensive end and along the offensive line this spring, but perhaps they decide to swing a deal if they think a new quarterback could get them over the top.
Garoppolo, however, has a no-trade clause of his own this spring, which could complicate things. The 49ers would have to find a suitor Garoppolo agrees to before making a move on another quarterback.
Watson is a bona fide star and just 25 years old. All but a handful of teams should be in the market to acquire him. He’s that good — and reportedly unhappy with the Houston Texans leaving many observers expecting him to demand a trade. But that demand hasn’t come yet. Watson’s decision could hinge who Houston hires to be their head coach after firing Bill O’Brien in October.
Watson could control the entire process because he has a no-trade clause. His preferred destinations are reportedly in the AFC East — Miami and the New York Jets (former 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh’s new team) — while the 49ers haven’t been linked to Watson outside of many saying he would be a good fit, including us.
Stafford fits in the same bucket as Watson; there’s been no reported interest in San Francisco aside from speculation. Stafford, the No. 1 overall pick in 2009, has more arm strength than Garoppolo and could give Shanahan’s offense a dynamic it’s lacked the last two seasons: the ability to consistently threaten defenses with deep throws. The 49ers in 2020 averaged just 3.6 air yards per completion, the sixth-lowest mark in the NFL, according to Pro Football Reference.
A knock on Stafford is his postseason resume, or lack thereof. He’s 0-3 in the playoffs, which should be a bigger indictment on the Lions organization than the star quarterback. Stafford surely could have won the games Garoppolo did in the 2019 playoffs opposite San Francisco’s elite defense and complementary running game.
Is upgrading to Stafford worth the draft capital it would take to get him? Will San Francisco offer a more enticing trade package to the Lions than a team with less certainty under center like Indianapolis, Washington, New England, Denver, Pittsburgh and New Orleans? ESPN reported this week Stafford “has his eyes on” joining the Colts and renowned quarterback whisperer Frank Reich after Philip Rivers’ recent retirement.
The Packers, meanwhile, have no good reason to trade Rodgers unless he forces one. He’s signed through 2023 and the team would be on the hook for $31.5 million in dead cap dollars should Rodgers gets dealt this spring. The Packers are already $28 million over the expected cap for 2021 based on the $176 million cap projection from Overthecap.
So while all the talk and speculation about the future of the 49ers’ quarterback situation is intriguing, it seems unlikely that a drastic change is coming. Unless Shanahan takes an aggressive approach that strays from his thinking over the last four years.
