Travellers shouldn't bank on a flight to London in the next six months, analysts say, despite Qantas bringing forward its international bookings.
Qantas began selling tickets across all of its global network on Tuesday, bringing forward flights to the United States and United Kingdom from October to July 1.
While the airline said the decision reflected its "expectation that international travel will begin to restart from July 2021", analysts aren't convinced.
Aviation expert and chairman of Strategic Aviation Solutions Neil Hansford said the move by the carrier was "purely commercial".
With other airlines already opening up bookings for international travel, Qantas needed to jump on board to secure bums on seats.
"They (Qantas) are covering their bases because everyone else was speculating and getting their money," Mr Hansford said.
Mr Hansford said it was very unlikely anyone from Australia would be travelling to the US or UK this year and customers were being "extremely optimistic".
"You won't get to the northern hemisphere until well into 2022.
"If anything opens this year it will be an New Zealand bubble, the Pacific Islands and possibly Japan and Korea and maybe Singapore, Cambodia and Vietnam, which are handling the virus very well."
Those comments appeared to be backed by the Federal Government, with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Transport Michael McCormack issuing a statement reminding Qantas borders fell under the jurisdiction of the Government.
"Decisions about when international travel resumes will be made by the Australian Government," Mr McCormack said.
"International borders will be opened when international arrivals do not pose a risk to Australians.
"The Australian Government is working on travel arrangements with countries, such as New Zealand, that have low community infections."
Vaccine remains key to getting on a flight
IBISWorld senior industry analyst Tom Youl said it was not surprising there was a market for international travel despite the ongoing health risk.
"There are three main markets in tourism; corporate travellers, holiday-makers, and those visiting friends and family," Mr Youl said.
"The friends and family market will be the biggest point of focus early on.
"A lot of people are desperate to see their families, it will be over a year by [July] since they were able to fly [internationally]."
But Mr Youl says the optimism starts to diminish when it comes to the vaccine.
A Qantas spokesperson said the company stood by its November statement that said a vaccine was "key to restarting international travel with most of the rest of the world".
Qantas boss Alan Joyce also said last year he believed it would be a necessity for passengers to be vaccinated, and was looking into the possibility of requiring passengers to have a vaccination passport that would allow them to travel.
Mr Youl said Australia had been "dragging its feet somewhat in regards to the vaccine", meaning the majority of Australians are unlikely to have the jab by July.
"There's less of a rush [in Australia]," he said.
"I don't know how long it will take to reach the average Australian … but people will take an optimistic stand point and hope for a quick rollout."
Qantas don't want 'to play catch-up'
Mr Youl said despite Qantas's losses over the past year, increasing cash flow was unlikely to be the motivator behind bringing flights forward.
"It could be part of the story but with the domestic operation going again it's less of a factor," he said.
"The main driver will be that Qantas have to be ready to go. It's much easier for them to push flights back than to rapidly bring them forward at short notice if international travel resumes without notice.
"It's hard to play catch up so they have to operate from a best-case scenario and push back if they need to."
Mr Hansford agreed and said "the real problem" for airlines would be getting their fleet back to Australia.
"They have to bring Airbuses back in from the desert in America. It takes about a month to get them back," he said.
But a Qantas spokesperson said that was not a problem as almost all the airline's fleet of Boeing 787-9 Dreamliners were in Australia and actively flying.
"Of the 11 aircraft, nine are actively flying, one will resume flying next week, and one is stored in LA expected to return to service around February," they said.
