The escalating tension and conflict in Moscow, involving President Putin and marked by a considerable loss of Russian troops, may be an indication not of the leader's war strategy but his anticipation of a weak western coalition.
Many experts suggest Putin's confidence is manifesting more as a potential power play, demonstrating his belief that he can hold out against international pressure longer than the nations placing it upon him. This dynamic has been particularly amplified by recent disagreements within the United States over agreeing to provide additional aid to Ukraine.
Fundamentally, the dispute at hand is in many aspects a 'war of nerves.' Despite Russia's heavy losses, Putin believes persistence will split the West and give Russia the advantage. This point of view is reinforced due to stalling U.S. decisions over providing additional military aid to Ukraine, allowing him to maintain his stance despite the high cost in human life and financial burden. It's worth noting that over 50% of the territory initially seized by Russian forces has been regained by Ukraine, however, this doesn't appear to be altering Putin's attitude.
Independent of the physical battleground, the psychological warfare proving to be a centerpiece of this conflict reflects a narrative Putin has been pushing for years - the idea of a divided and weak West.
Recent evidence showed this narrative’s influence in the public opinion sector, as bizarre, yet surprisingly tough questions emerged during a televised event, including one implying Putin was a body double. Whether this was a staged gambit to feign authenticity or an actual proof of deep-rooted discontentment remains uncertain.
It's unclear whether such inquiries were about mitigating existing discontent within Russia's population or merely a slip. Realistically, they could be an intentional strategy from Russian propagandists, who often aim to counter and suppress any dissent by defeating these arguments publicly.
In spite of these cumbersome inner machinations playing out in the public eye, one thing remains certain: the high stakes game for power on the international stage, accompanied by a potential division among the western allies, is playing right into Putin's hand. Only time will tell if this gamble will pay off in his favor.
