Professor Philip Nolan has revealed the data which swayed the government into making the controversial decision not to reopen restaurants and pubs for indoor drinking and dining this month.
Taking to Twitter, Professor Nolan posted a lengthy thread detailing the best and worst case forecasts of the impact the Delta variant could have if society continued to reopen and explained the basis on which these models were created.
In the best case scenario if reopening went ahead, it was projected that there would be 81,000 cases in the next three months which would lead to approximately 250 deaths and 1,530 hospitalisations.
The second best case scenario is considerably more worrying.
This forecasts 187,000 additional cases in the next three months, with 3,490 hospitalisations, 450 admissions to ICU and approximately 545 deaths.
The second worst case scenario delivers a stark warning on the possible effect the Delta variant could have on Ireland.
In this scenario, the country would be hit with 408,000 cases, 7,690 in hospital, 985 in ICU and 1,230 deaths in a three month period.
The ¨worst case scenario¨ that NPHET are projecting would truly be a nightmare.
This situation would see 682,000 cases in just three months, just under 13,000 hospitalisations, 1.685 in ICU and 2,170 deaths.
This was labelled as the ¨pessimistic¨ forecast and is less likely to happen.
Professor Nolan explained on Twitter: ¨Why would this happen if everyone is vaccinated? Vaccines offer extraordinary protection, but not perfect.
¨We have almost 500,000 people aged 70 and over; even if the vaccine is 95% effective in preventing severe disease, 25,000 people remain vulnerable,¨ he said.
He reiterated the dangers of allowing the Delta variant to rip through the population while many are still unvaccinated.
¨All this illustrates one thing: a variant with a transmission advantage can do very significant damage if we let it spread in a partially vaccinated population, the scale of the damage depends on the transmission advantage, and it starts slowly and escalates rapidly.¨
However, Professor Nolan confirmed that this modelling was completed prior to NIAC´s recommendation that the AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson vaccines be permitted for use among younger age cohorts.
This would allow the younger population to be vaccinated at an accelerated rate.
It has been revealed that the Taoiseach told the Cabinet that this modelling took the updated NIAC advice into account, meaning that while they were making their decision on reopening, the Cabinet believed these scenarios had factored in younger age groups receiving their vaccines quicker.
