Pubs and restaurants may face an enormous 87% plunge in capacity if the HSE's two-metre social distancing guidelines are enforced.
An engineers' report published by the Licensed Vintners Association (LVA) and the Vintners Federation of Ireland (VFI) says capacity will drop to as little as one-eighth of pre-coronavirus levels.
The report says that when two-metre social distancing is applied in any 100m squared area in a licensed premises, standing capacity will drop to 12.5% while seating capacity is reduced to 34% of pre-crisis levels.
Prior to the Covid-19 outbreak, maximum occupancy of a venue was calculated at a rate of two persons per square metre for standing areas and one person per square metre for seated areas.
This meant that before social distancing was introduced, a pub or restaurant could accommodate up to 200 people standing or 100 people seated for every 100 square metres.
But with social distancing enforced, just 25 people can stand in an area of 100 square metres and seating capacity is reduced just 34 people per 100 square metres.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) recommends a minimum distance of one metre between people for social distancing.
This would allow greater numbers of people into a premises, with standing capacity dropping from 200 people to 100 (50%), while seating capacity in pubs and bar/ restaurants would decrease from 100 to 65 (65%).
The report notes that every premises is unique in terms of shape and size but maintained that small narrow pubs would be hit the worst.
“Up to now, there has been a lot of speculation about what a social distancing environment actually looks like in a pub or bar/ restaurant,” said Donall O’Keeffe, Chief Executive of the LVA.
“Various figures have been bandied about, which did not provide clarity to the sector. We are now only a matter of weeks away from pubs with restaurant certificates and other hospitality venues reopening.
"That is due to be followed six weeks later by the reopening of other pubs across the country. It is vital that pub businesses fully grasp the commercial challenges they will face and thoroughly examine the prospects for whether they can afford to reopen.
“While every pub and bar/ restaurant will have different layouts and configurations, the findings will broadly apply across the sector and they are stark. Seated capacity will drop to approximately one third of previous levels, while standing capacity can be divided by a factor of eight.
"Those are dramatic decreases and they will have extreme impact on turnover potential.
"The WHO requirements will still significantly reduce capacity, but they will at least allow more pubs and other hospitality businesses to be capable of trading in the shorter term. But that is a decision for the Government and the public health officials,” Mr. O’Keeffe concluded.
