Paris Saint-Germain have been criticised for failing to live up to their billing this season but on Tuesday they will be praised if they go against expectations because it would mean beating Chelsea despite suffering a ruinous buildup to the Champions League knockout tie.
While José Mourinho’s team enjoyed a weekend off, PSG endured a painful Saturday. Calling it a St Valentine’s Day massacre would be excessive so let us just say that for Laurent Blanc’s side the events in the match against Caen make things bloody complicated.
Hosting modest Caen seemed an ideal way for PSG to warm up for their biggest match of the season, especially when Zlatan Ibrahimovic scored after two minutes. Ezequiel Lavezzi increased the lead before half-time and PSG were on course for a victory that would have enabled them to leapfrog Lyon at the top of Ligue 1. Then Blanc’s nightmare began. The manager looked on aghast as he lost four players to injury and, with his side down to nine men because he could use no more substitutes, Caen scored twice to claim a draw that kept the Parisians below their supposed station.
Of the four injured players – Yohan Cabaye, Serge Aurier, Marquinhos and Lucas Moura – only one, Marquinhos, was likely to start against Chelsea but the others could have played important roles. What is more, the key midfielders Blaise Matuidi and Thiago Motta also suffered strains that could prevent them from appearing against the Premier League leaders. With Javier Pastore already set to be missing through injury PSG’s squad go into the first leg with a skeletal look.
In part this spate of injuries is merely the most severe symptom of the misfortune that has beset PSG throughout a campaign in which they have lost influential players for varying lengths of time. In part such afflictions were predictable because PSG have not properly adjusted to the twin demands of complying with financial fair play regulations and competing for trophies on four fronts.
In terms of quality PSG have the best squad in France and should be well clear at the top of the table. In terms of quantity they have one of the smallest squads in the top flight and are thus particularly vulnerable to injuries and suspensions. The £50m they splurged last summer on one player, David Luiz, left, would have been better spent on two or three recruits.
Blanc has also faced questions about how wisely he has used the players at his disposal and he was especially criticised for playing Cabaye on Saturday even though the former Newcastle player had complained of hamstring trouble during the French Cup win over Nantes a few days previously. Cabaye lasted 14 minutes against Caen before hobbling off in tears. The manager admitted it had been a risk to play him but said injuries to others left him with little option.
Physical problems have hampered PSG but their biggest hindrance has been mental. Enforced absences have not been enough to explain why they are still playing catch-up in the table. PSG are lagging in Ligue 1 because too often their attitude has been wrong.
After coasting to the title in the last two seasons PSG have at times looked complacent this term. They have dominated possession in most matches – averaging 65% for the season – but not been swift or assertive enough in how they use the ball, circulating it slowly as if convinced that they are so superior a breakthrough will eventually just happen.
A similar mindset infected their defence who have not enjoyed the same degree of protection from midfield they did last season. That has led to frequent lapses in concentration, especially at set pieces. PSG have already conceded only one goal fewer in Ligue 1 than they did in the whole of last season and half of them have been from set pieces. No team have scored more goals from set pieces in the Champions League this season than Chelsea.
The pity for Blanc is that in recent weeks it had seemed he had finally found the right formula, especially in defence, but that has now been disrupted by the loss of Marquinhos. The 20-year-old barely featured last season but has become a defensive stalwart, albeit while playing in a variety of positions across the back. PSG have lost three games in the campaign and it is telling that Marquinhos did not start any of them.
Against Chelsea Marquinhos would most likely have played at right-back in an all-Brazilian rearguard featuring Maxwell at left-back and Thiago Silva and David Luiz in the central positions. The latter pair have gained in consistency after a troubled start to the season caused by injuries and post-World Cup blues. That back four became the 17th different defensive arrangement that Blanc used this season when he introduced it last month and it looked the most solid. Now, should Marquinhos be deemed unfit, he will likely be replaced by Gregory van der Wiel who offers a greater threat going forward but is not as tough or savvy defensively. Having been eliminated from the Champions League on away goals in the last two seasons, PSG maintain that their priority against Chelsea is to avoid conceding at home; losing Marquinhos is therefore a big blow.
On the plus side, the very fact the Premier League leaders are the visitors is likely to ensure PSG do not suffer from the superiority complex that seems to lull them into sluggishness in Ligue 1.
They will probably not have as much possession as they generally do at domestic level, especially if Motta and Matuidi are missing from midfield, and chances are most of their attacking will be through rapid counters as was the case when they beat Barcelona at the Parc des Princes in September. Lucas’s absence deprives them of valuable speed but Lavezzi and Edinson Cavani are in decent form and Ibrahimovic, despite being below par for much of the campaign, scored the sort of goal on Saturday only he can conjure.
Thiago Silva says PSG are aiming for a 1-0 win in the first leg. A higher-scoring encounter seems far more probable but PSG have proved this season that in football it is folly to take anything for granted.
