Some of us believe that the future of the videogame industry is impossible to predict due to the unthinkable myriad of demographic, economic and developmental factors that contribute to the varying fortunes of different platforms. But we're wrong. Research companies know what's going to happen and thankfully they're willing to tell us.
This time The Yankee Group has issued a report announcing that Sony will hold off the stern challenges from Microsoft and Nintendo to once again dominate the world of interactive entertainments. The company's press release makes the following ardent declaration (if you would like the future of the videogame industry to remain a fantastical mystery please look away now:
"by 2011 the PlayStation 3 will have sold about 30 million units and account for 44% of cumulative third-generation console sales in North America. Comparatively, Microsoft will have sold nearly 27 million units by 2011, accounting for 40% of the market and Nintendo will have sold just over 11 million units, accounting for 16% of the market."
I'd love to know how they come up with these figures - so precise, so assured. There must be complex mathematics and computers involved. I would hate to visit their offices and find a room full of smoking chimpanzees locked in cages and forced to point at pictures of different videogame consoles.
Unperturbed by the seeming impossibility of the task, they make more prophesies later in the release:
Overall, fewer consoles will be sold this generation. Yankee Group anticipates that as a result of higher console prices, overall unit sales will lag the previous generation of consoles (i.e., PS2, Xbox and GameCube).
Microsoft will put significant price pressure on Sony during the PS3's lifecycle. In addition to starting at a lower price than the PS3, Microsoft is well positioned to make a large price cut in the spring of 2007 and each year thereafter--putting significant price pressure on Sony.
Thank you for that Yankee Group. Thank God someone knows what's going on.
