Projecting the post-spring Michigan State football offensive depth chart

Spring is an important time for college football depth charts. Practices in March and April set the stage for fall camp battles that may or may not happen as athletes jockey for starting positions. At programs with brand new coaching staffs–like Michigan State–that time is doubly important. Establishing the depth chart of a Mel Tucker’s new regime without the luxury of reports from spring practice or a spring game seems like a fool’s errand.

But I am a fool and these days I’m searching hard for any errand I can find.

The fall practices, training camps, or whatever we end up getting as a resolution from  college football returning during the COVID-19 pandemic will go a long way into shaping who is actually taking snaps once snaps are there to be taken. Mel Tucker has said himself that everybody has a clean slate with him. At some point that slate will have to start to dirty up a bit, as the time for evaluation shrinks by the day and the need for game preparation grows. We’ll see how it shakes out.

With that said, with the help of what we know from previous seasons and reading into press availabilities from assistant coaches, we can start to piece together what the Michigan State football depth chart probably looks like right now.

Today we will start with the offensive side of the ball and get to the defense and special teams later in the week.

Quarterback

1. Rocky Lombardi or Theo Day or Payton Thorne

This is a totally wide open competition. Yes, Lombardi has the most experience of the bunch and it’s not close. But in the fall it will be almost two years since Lombardi has taken a meaningful snap as a starting college quarterback. And it’s not as if his run in 2018 was something that cemented his future as the starting quarterback. Sure, there were some good moments. But there were plenty of bad ones too. Plus, all three are learning a brand new offense. Lombardi’s advantage of being in the old scheme for three-plus years is out the window. Theo Day has almost no real game experience and his one shot against Penn State in 2019 was cut short when he called the wrong play just a few snaps in. Payton Thorne has yet to take the field at MSU. Had Mark Dantonio never left I would have picked Lombardi as the favorite to start, followed by Day and Thorne. With Tucker, I really don’t know. I’d probably just barely give the teeniest of edges to Lomardi with Day and Thorne in a dead heat for backup. Notice how many qualifiers I put in that sentence.

Running back

1. Elijah Collins
2. Anthony Williams Jr.
3. Brandon Wright or Jordon Simmons or Donovan Eaglin or Connor Heyward

This group is pretty cut and dry right now. Collins is the go-to guy with Ant Williams playing a change-of-pace/receiving/jet sweep role. Running back is a spot where true freshmen can make immediate impacts and Jordon Simmons definitely has a shot to earn some playing time next year. I’d expect Brandon Wright and Connor Heyward to get on the field some as well, but with Wright it’s just too early to know what he can contribute and Heyward may work best at another hybrid-type position.

Wide Receiver

1. Jalen Nailor, Tre Mosley, Jayden Reed
2. CJ Hayes, Laress Nelson, Tre’Von Morgan
3. Ricky White, Javez Alexander, Terry Lockett, Ian Stewart

This is a pretty young group, but the top few guys should be set. Nailor is on the field as long as he is healthy. Mosley flashed as a true freshman in 2019 and should be ready to move into a starting role. And big things are expected from transfer Jayden Reed, who was a freshman All-American at Western Michigan. Behind them I see CJ Hayes and Laress Nelson earning some time as veteran reserves. Tre’Von Morgan would have played in 2019 had he not tore his ACL. Ricky White and Terry Lockett are exciting true freshman that have a chance to jump up the depth chart over guys like Hayes and Nelson. Ian Stewart has a shot to do that as well. Julian Barnett could see some snaps on offense, but coaches have made it seem like he has fully transitioned to corner.

Tight End

1. Trenton Gillison
2. Matt Dotson or Adam Berghorst
3. Connor Heyward or Parks Gissinger

Gillison is the obvious choice to enter the season as a starter. MSU will be using more single tight end sets than in year’s prior so if he can get the job done in year three, he’ll be on the field a lot. We saw flashes of his ability in 2019, most notably in the Pinstripe Bowl where the former four-star recruit had four catches for 88 yards, both career highs. Behind him it’s tough for me to envision Matt Dotson fully recovering from his torn Achilles to make much of an impact. He’ll be less of an athlete than in year’s past due to the injury. An underreported story from 2019 is that Adam Berghorst’s redshirt was burned seemingly on accident. Berghorst transitioned from defensive end to tight end halfway through the season and appeared in the final five games of the season. He played just one snap against Illinois and two against Michigan. He played a season-high 28 snaps in the Pinstripe Bowl. I listed Connor Heyward here too, because I think his best fit is as an H-back/fullback/tight end hybrid who does some blocking and is a good receiving back. Gissinger has played relatively few snaps on offense thus far in his career.

Offensive line (Left to right)

1. Devontae Dobbs, Kevin Jarvis, Nick Samac, JD Duplain, Luke Campbell
2. Aj Arcuri, Blake Bueter, Matt Allen, Matt Carrick, Jordan Reid
3. Mustafa Khaleefah, Jacob Isaia, Damon Kaylor, Spencer Brown, James Ohanba

There is a pretty clear top ten group in MSU’s offensive line room. Everyone listed in the third group is young and inexperienced and would have to leap up into the two deep. As for the top ten, it’s a bit of a mess. Everyone in the group has played a decent amount. Devontae Dobbs is the least experience of the bunch having only played four games as a true freshman, but his recruiting pedigree is at the top of the group. Elsewhere there is a ton of youth and a ton of injuries. Nick Samac and JD Duplain showed well as true freshman in 2019, entering the lineups midway through the season. Allen has experience in the middle, but has battled injuries and at times ineffectiveness. Jordan Reid has been a constant presence at right tackle and there is something to be said for his durability. There’s also something to be said for his performance, which has been lacking at times. Essentially, nobody in the top ten should be guaranteed a starting spot. The top five I listed are the ones I think would make up the best starting group right now. The battle on the offensive line is just as up for grabs as the quarterback spot, with the difference being the line has a lot more experience on it, just maybe not the best experience.